In the past week, the BTC price has generally shown a trend of fluctuating upward. Influenced by macro data (U.S. dollar index, non-farm data, CPI), market information (such as the U.S. Department of Justice's approval to liquidate BTC seized in the Silk Road case), and political factors (Trump's inauguration), the BTC price has experienced significant volatility, dropping to a low of below $90,000 and reaching a high of $109,588, setting a new ATH. Currently, the BTC price is around $102,000 (the above data is from Binance spot at 15:00 real-time data).
Previously, the MEME Coin frenzy led by Trump and his family swept the market, and with Trump’s inauguration ceremony not mentioning crypto assets, the market generally considers this week to be stimulating and closely watched. The executive orders signed by Trump not only relate to the future trend of crypto assets but also determine the future development of global macro assets.
Market Analysis
The adoption speed of BTC surpasses that of the internet and mobile phones, and the popularity of crypto assets continues to rise.
A report released by BlackRock on January 14 shows that the adoption speed of BTC has surpassed that of past transformative technologies, including the internet and mobile phones. The report emphasizes that since its launch in 2009, BTC has rapidly evolved from a niche innovation to a globally recognized asset. Trends such as rising inflation, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about the traditional banking system highlight the value of BTC as a decentralized asset. As the global economy digitizes, BTC is becoming an indispensable part of the evolving financial landscape. Meanwhile, the younger generation's familiarity with technology and preference for digital-first solutions positions them as the leading group in cryptocurrency adoption.
Google search index for crypto assets hits an all-time high.
On January 21, Google Trends data showed that the search volume for "How to buy crypto" reached an all-time high, peaking at 100. This is the first ATH in four years, with searches for "How to buy trump coin" also on the rise.
After the surge of $TRUMP, a trust crisis may arise in the MEME coin frenzy.
On the eve of Trump's inauguration, the $TRUMP issued by his team sparked a market frenzy. The astronomical rise in speed and the early listing on compliant exchanges peaked market expectations for the "crypto president," and the influence of the U.S. in this round of rising cycles also increased. Against the backdrop of the crypto market and the public's anticipation that Trump might introduce favorable new policies for crypto, the launch of the new MEME coin $MELANIA by Trump's team surprised the market, causing $TRUMP to plummet.
As the market acceptance of crypto assets like BTC increases, how to maintain the formalization of crypto investment is a pressing issue for the market. The transition from $TRUMP to $MELANIA is self-evident, with blatant "opportunism" compounded by the previous success draining market liquidity. Where will the next market catalyst come from?
Industry Dynamics
Trump has officially taken office as president, and this term begins against a backdrop of extremely strong U.S. economic performance, with market inflation yet to be resolved. Meanwhile, in line with past styles, the market generally believes that Trump may implement more unstable but direct policies regarding tariffs, immigration, fiscal spending, and even personnel changes.
CPI & Non-farm data show improvement, global market closed steadily last week.
On January 11, data showed that initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose, but layoffs remained at a low level, indicating overall resilience in the job market. On January 15, U.S. CPI data was released. The unadjusted core CPI year-on-year for December was 3.2%, lower than expected and the previous value of 3.30%, marking the lowest since August 24; the unadjusted CPI year-on-year for December was 2.9%, in line with market expectations. The cooling of core CPI alleviated market concerns about rising inflation in the U.S., and the global market reacted swiftly. However, the Federal Reserve still faces a loose financial situation, a strong underlying economy, and a tricky inflation problem.
Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada before February 1.
On Monday evening, Trump responded to reporters' questions, stating, "We are considering imposing a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada because they allow a large number of people to enter the U.S. I think we will implement this on February 1." Both Mexico and Canada have indicated that they will retaliate against U.S. goods if Trump imposes tariffs on them. The proposed tariffs on neighboring countries could have a "disastrous" impact on the U.S. auto industry and Detroit automakers, as they import a large number of cars from Canada and Mexico.
Trump described Canada as "a very bad abuser" and complained about the influx of fentanyl and immigrants from the northern border. Meanwhile, Trump did not indicate an immediate imposition of tariffs on China, leading to a slight sigh of relief in the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets. The offshore yuan fell slightly by 0.2% but maintained most of its gains from Monday.
The U.S. shows a clear attitude of embracing crypto assets, with multiple states submitting BTC-related bills.
The SEC is prepared to advance crypto policy reform immediately after Trump takes office.
On January 15, Reuters reported that senior Republican officials at the SEC are ready to begin reforming the agency's cryptocurrency policy as early as next week after Trump takes office. Information indicates that commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda are considering measures that include initiating relevant procedures to ultimately formulate guidance or rules clarifying under what circumstances the agency will consider cryptocurrencies as securities and reviewing some cryptocurrency enforcement cases currently in court.
At the same time, Texas senators submitted SB 778, a bill to establish a state-level Bitcoin strategic reserve; Wyoming representatives submitted legislative proposals for strategic Bitcoin reserves; Massachusetts has introduced two new bills regarding Bitcoin strategic reserves.
Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
