The "Understanding King" completed the signing of executive orders on the first day, without mentioning Bitcoin or strategic reserves. The promised dismissal of SEC Chairman Gensler has been completed.
The "Understanding King" family’s crypto project WLFI has accumulated an investment of $220 million in seven tokens, with $47 million each in ETH and WBTC, and $4.7 million each in AAVE, LINK, TRX, and ENA (the numbers are all 47 to celebrate Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president).
The Ethereum Foundation has allocated 50,000 ETH to participate in the DeFi ecosystem. This news has caused AAVE to briefly rise, breaking through its downward channel, which is worth paying attention to.
Bitcoin
There was not much analysis yesterday. The 19th also mentioned that the volatility during the "Understanding King" inauguration is quite large, so everyone should pay more attention to the market. After dropping to 99,500 in the early hours of yesterday, it surged back up to 110,000, with a back-and-forth movement of 16,000 points causing both long and short positions to explode. The evening's executive order signing did not mention Bitcoin, and the market continued to decline to 100,119.
The direction for Bitcoin is clear, but the process is tortuous. Most people only focus on the immediate ups and downs and cannot see the future. First, let’s discuss the macro bearish factors: 1. The expectation of interest rate cuts in 2025 has weakened, and there may only be a possibility of cuts again in the second half of the year. 2. Many people feel that the benefits of the "Understanding King" inauguration have been realized, leading to a bearish market. 3. Some believe that a financial tsunami will occur in 2025, leading to a major financial collapse.
In the 2024 year-end summary and outlook, it was predicted that the BTC bull market peak would be between 180,000 and 250,000, but there would be at least one 30-40% pullback along the way. This also considers Bitcoin's historical trends and the risk of a financial tsunami, but the historical wheel of Bitcoin will not stop.
From a technical perspective: After each sharp rise in Bitcoin, there will be a few months of consolidation. From the structural trend, it is solidifying step by step, which is a healthy cycle. MicroStrategy has also published structural analysis of the trend. Conversely, the kind of trend where all coins rise significantly over six months is very bubble-like.
From the news and funding perspective: Major institutions like BlackRock, MicroStrategy, and the "Understanding King" are all increasing their positions, and listed companies are gradually buying in. More and more regions or countries are proposing to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve (this is actually a tactic similar to the dollar system, with the U.S. supporting other allies to embrace it).
Summary: Whether the price drop after reaching a new high is a false breakout will depend on the direction chosen after the fluctuations around 100,000 and 110,000. If it continues to break through, it is just a consolidation washout. If it subsequently drops below 100,000 but can still rise within 90,000, it is merely a temporary pullback to gather strength. Unless it drops below 90,000 and fails to recover, the risk will increase.
Support: Pressure:
Ethereum
The criticisms of Ethereum have been ongoing for some time. Recently, many KOLs have removed Ethereum from their watchlists. The reasons are clear: there are too many ancient toxic large holders with continuous selling pressure, insufficient odds, etc., including Vitalik selling coins for personal gain, and the Ethereum Foundation has become a top indicator of market peaks with no action taken.
The "Young Master" is not too optimistic about Ethereum in this bull market, but it cannot be completely bearish since there is still funding through ETFs, and it remains a leading altcoin. If it cannot rise, the altcoin season will also be difficult. On the chart, the daily line is still oscillating within a descending wedge, and there is a pin below the 3100-3500 range to see if it can form a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern.
Support: Pressure:
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The article is time-sensitive and for reference only, with real-time updates.
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