Important News on January 21:
- Coinbase responds to Solana trading delays: caused by wallet maintenance or blockchain issues, the team is working on a fix.
- Government Efficiency Department structure announced: restructuring the U.S. Digital Service, establishing a temporary organization with the DOGE team.
- Ethereum Foundation allocates 50,000 ETH to participate in the DeFi ecosystem, has conducted test trades on Aave.
- Trump's crypto project WLFI has sold nearly 40% of its new shares in the past day.
- Vitalik: Personally opposes the Ethereum Foundation staking ETH through service providers, should support independent staking.
Conveying the path of trading, enjoying a wise life.
Here’s a heart-wrenching truth: in recent days, there has been a frenzy for Trump's tokens, including the entire Trump family's MEMECOIN. Some have become extremely wealthy, while others have certainly faced significant losses. So while going crazy for him, Trump's WIFI has already started purchasing mainstream value coins. What mainstream value coins has he purchased? And what is the price trend of Bitcoin? Today, we will interpret these two puzzles.
First, let's talk about the price trend of Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin reached a high of $109,000 yesterday, setting a new historical high. However, this high point is an extreme upward spike, meaning this long upper shadow may form a double top structure for its future trend. If it falls below $90,000, the double top will be confirmed, and there will be room to move downwards. So can Bitcoin reach a new high again, or will it enter a new upward trend? From the K-line perspective, there is significant selling pressure, with a consensus pressure point at $109,000, which is around $110,000.
Next, what should we pay attention to? Everyone should not be overly pessimistic. From the weekly chart level, Bitcoin's price support remains at $90,000, and last week, the trend was still decent, although there is selling pressure above, and this week has not yet fully completed. So we need to wait for the daily level K-line to close next Monday to see if it can stand above $110,000. If it can, then our concerns may be unnecessary; if it pulls back, we still need to pay attention to the possible support level at the 4-hour level.
Because Bitcoin's price has already fallen below the $100,000 mark, at $100,260, we repeatedly emphasize that this is a very significant neckline. Since it has broken below this point, it fell below once yesterday but then recovered, creating a false breakout. Now it has broken below again, so whether it can recover is uncertain, but if it cannot, Bitcoin may continue to decline. The first support level on the way down is at $99,700, which is close to the $100,000 mark, and this is the first pressure support level. The second level we need to pay attention to is at $96,000, which is also the breakout point after Bitcoin's last bottoming, and it is a reverse arc neckline. Therefore, $96,000 is very likely to be a crucial support level for Bitcoin. At this point, my view is that it is worth considering entering in batches at $96,000 or $90,000, as this area is a relatively important entry zone. This is the price trend of Bitcoin.
The second topic is about the tokens recently purchased by the Trump family. The Trump family recently purchased tokens, spending $47 million on ETH, WBTC, and ENA just 11 hours ago; at the same time, 13 hours ago, they spent $14.1 million on TRX, AAVE, and LINK. We know that AAVE and LINK are part of the DeFi series, and Ethereum is the second leading cryptocurrency, meaning it ranks second in the cryptocurrency hierarchy. The reason for purchasing so much Ethereum is quite justified from this perspective.
As for Ethereum, we know that from the weekly chart level, it has not shown a corresponding trend since it broke through on November 4, continuously reaching new highs and then starting to pull back.
The important pullback point is at $3,100, which is also a very crucial key level from before. Everyone should pay attention to this point; if there is an opportunity to retest this level, my view is that it is still worth buying on dips, as the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is also around $3,100.
So after breaking through the middle band, the first pullback and the second pullback are both good buying points. Is it possible to continue to test down to $2,800? If it does, it would be in a spike manner, and the probability of this is very high.
If it falls below $3,100, we will start buying. And Ethereum in the Trump family's holding structure has reached 60,000 coins, which is a considerable amount, involving nearly $200 million in funds, making it the top holding.
The Trump family is also very optimistic about ETH because the current ETH price is still relatively low, while Bitcoin has reached new highs, Ethereum has maintained its price, thus offering a very high cost-performance ratio.
The third token we focus on is AAVE, with a total holding of $6.65 million, which also belongs to the DeFi series. This shows that they place significant importance on the DeFi series.
From the weekly chart level, AAVE has broken through $260, which was achieved in December. After the breakthrough, there have been multiple downward retracements, and we can see that it has tested $260 multiple times but has not effectively broken below.
Therefore, $260 should be a very important buying point for AAVE. Currently, its price is at $350, and if it returns to $260, it would be quite challenging.
From the daily chart level, it has formed a golden cross, with upward pressure at $350, and downward support currently seen at $330 - $315, which will form a support area. So if it pulls back to the $330 - $310 area, it can be considered for entry.
Why do I say this? Because yesterday, it closed with a relatively long bullish candle, and this position also saw a significant volume, which is a good indicator. So is it possible that this is due to the Trump family's purchases? This cannot be ruled out.
At least AAVE has gained attention, so if it pulls back to this level, it can be considered for buying; if it continues to decline, it can still be considered for buying. If it falls below $310, we will wait for it at $280.
Long-term traders can consider building positions in batches, while short-term traders can refer to the 5-day, 10-day, and 30-day moving average indicators for purchases. Let's take a look at its support and resistance levels.
The current price has just broken through the $340 level, breaking through the downward trend line. After the breakthrough, during the upward pull, the first target should return to $400, and after $400, it will be $450, and then even higher levels.
Now, for this category, those interested can slowly pay attention. Of course, if you are trading altcoins, you can slowly keep an eye on them; we mainly focus on Bitcoin and can only allocate a portion of funds to watch these altcoins.
As for what other tokens the Trump family holds, there are many in their portfolio. Including LINK, ENA, TRX, SOL, ONDO, the proportions of these are relatively small, so we will not analyze them as primary subjects.
The most important thing is that while many people are stepping into Ethereum, the Trump family is also building positions, and I believe Ethereum is also a very good entry point right now.
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