Author: Weilin, PANews
A originally calm Saturday morning was shaken to its core by a post from Trump, causing unprecedented turmoil in the cryptocurrency market. Starting at 10 AM on January 18, Trump released a meme coin named TRUMP through the social platforms Truth Social and X, triggering a massive response in the crypto market. The official meme coin TRUMP saw its price soar. According to GMGN data, its market capitalization briefly surpassed $30 billion that evening. The next day, it continued to rise, with a fully diluted market cap exceeding Dogecoin, reaching a price of $82, corresponding to a total market cap of $82 billion.
This meme coin has continued to dominate the crypto market's spotlight. Based on Forbes ranking data, if the price of the TRUMP token rises to $270, Trump would become the world's richest person. Meanwhile, the issuance method of the TRUMP coin and the capital operations behind it have also drawn significant attention from regulatory organizations, crypto professionals, and investors.
This article will analyze the impact of this event on various potential stakeholders and the capital market from multiple perspectives, including whales, new users, the Solana ecosystem, and Trump himself.
Market Cap Rapidly Approaches $100 Billion, Whales Profit, New Users Enter
The launch of the coin coincided with the crypto ball. David Sacks, the cryptocurrency czar of the Trump administration, stated, "The reign of terror against cryptocurrencies is over; the beginning of American crypto innovation has just begun."
A day prior, the release of the TRUMP coin was initially mistaken for a hacking incident on Trump's social platform. However, as time passed, its market performance completely changed this initial misunderstanding.
One hour after the coin's launch, GMGN market data showed that the TRUMP market cap surpassed $3 billion, with the coin price at $3.25. The top 10 holders collectively held about 89.61% of the tokens, with the largest address holding 80% of the tokens. As time went on, the market cap of the TRUMP token skyrocketed, achieving a "fast track" to a $10 billion market cap. By 5 PM on January 19, the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of Trump's official meme coin had already surpassed Dogecoin (DOGE), exceeding $59 billion, while DOGE's FDV was reported at $55.89 billion. After being listed on multiple exchanges, many on Twitter even speculated that TRUMP's next target was $100 billion.
Due to its overwhelming popularity, not only did on-chain transactions experience delays, but Binance also temporarily suspended SOL withdrawals due to hot wallet depletion, and the withdrawal channels for SOL on the Solana network and BNB Chain were temporarily closed.
Notably, according to the official website GetTrumpMemes.com, the initial purchase of TRUMP must be made through Moonshot, which supports traditional payment methods such as Apple Pay, Visa, Mastercard, Venmo, as well as cryptocurrency payments like USDC and SOL. This convenience in payment methods lowered the entry barrier for ordinary investors, further fueling the popularity of the TRUMP coin.
As the token price rose, investors in the TRUMP token reaped substantial returns from the rapid price increase. According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the whale @XXAntiWar has already made a profit of $10.19 million on $TRUMP. The 10th largest holding address purchased 1.271 million $TRUMP for 61,205 SOL ($14.18M) at a price of $11.15 on the first day and has not sold a single token yet. The unrealized profit has reached $21.41 million (+151%). Many other active on-chain investors have also enjoyed significant returns, as detailed in the article "Who Made Millions from TRUMP? Winning KOLs and Disappointed ETH Maxis."
TRUMP is not a meme coin released on Punp.fun, but rather one that coordinated in advance with Moonshot and Jupiter to ensure immediate certification upon launch. The trading frenzy of TRUMP has also propelled the related Solana ecosystem to rise rapidly, with decentralized exchanges (DEX) like Jupiter, Raydium, and Meteora seeing a surge. Moonshot has jumped to become a top financial app on the US Apple App Store, reporting that they attracted over 400,000 new users within 24 hours. Additionally, on-chain tools like OKX Web3 and GMGN have also benefited from this influx of traffic.
On January 19, the price of SOL broke $290, setting a new historical high, and the trading volume and activity of platforms related to the Solana ecosystem surged dramatically. According to @adam_tehc's data dashboard, on the day TRUMP was booming, the on-chain meme trading tool GMGN recorded approximately $153 million in trading volume on the Solana chain on January 18, capturing $1.52 million in fees, both setting historical highs. As of the morning of January 19, GMGN had accumulated over $34.6 million in fees. The explosive market for the TRUMP coin further intensified the rise of the Solana ecosystem, with many users flocking to the Solana chain for trading and investment.
At the same time, some crypto users expressed their views on the DEX trading experience: the on-chain era has just begun, and CEXs will gradually rely on on-chain communities to sustain their survival and development. This shift is expected to be completed in the current bull market and may accelerate during Trump's presidency. As the market advantages of CEXs gradually shrink, the importance of on-chain activities becomes increasingly prominent. The true market winners will no longer be those relying on traditional resources, but rather those who can stand out through on-chain data analysis and strategies. This disruptive force will spark significant changes across various fields, driving a transformation in the market landscape.
In fact, in response to such enthusiasm, CEXs are also racing to catch up. On January 19, OKX, Coinbase, and Binance all listed TRUMP, pushing its price to $80.
Trump's Net Worth Increases, Inauguration Ceremony Gains More Attention
Due to the TRUMP craze, according to NFT Floor data, as of the afternoon of January 19, the floor price of Trump's NFT series, Trump Digital Trading Cards, increased by 346% over the past seven days, with a trading volume of $2.81 million, up 38,218%.
According to the official website of the TRUMP token, Trump's affiliated companies, CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC, jointly hold 80% of the circulating tokens, which amounts to 800 million TRUMP. It is expected that the circulating supply will increase to 1 billion tokens within the next three years. This means that as the token price rises, the owners will see significant gains. CIC Digital LLC has already begun selling a range of other merchandise, such as Trump-branded sneakers, perfumes, and digital trading cards.
The website does not specify who will benefit from these profits. Due to a three-year unlocking plan, they cannot sell all their held tokens at once.
Arkham Intelligence pointed out on X: Assuming that CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight LLC (which together own 80% of the TRUMP supply) actually belong to him, Donald Trump's net worth increased by $22 billion overnight. Forbes estimates that his net worth will be $5.6 billion if elected president in November 2024. If this is accurate, the increase in memecoin holdings would quintuple his assets.
Notably, Trump's son, Eric Trump, expressed support for the TRUMP coin on social media. "I am very proud of our continuous achievements in the crypto space. $Trump is currently the hottest digital meme on Earth, and I truly believe WorldLibertyFi will revolutionize DeFi/Cefi and become the future of finance. We are just getting started!"
Behind this event, the issuance of the TRUMP coin is not merely a cryptocurrency project but a re-monetization of Trump's personal brand. Trump has long been known for his ability to link his personal brand with various business projects, from Trump University to Trump Hotels, and now to digital trading cards (NFTs). The launch of the TRUMP coin effectively continues this operational model of the Trump brand. The difference this time is that it uses cryptocurrency as a medium, giving this event an unusual capital attraction.
Crypto Market Sentiment Soars, but Uncertainty in Market Dynamics Remains
One day after the coin's launch, this event has sparked widespread ethical controversy. Crypto journalist Coffeezilla criticized Trump's release of the TRUMP coin, citing several key points.
- Launching Trump's memecoin just two days before becoming president is truly a disgraceful act.
- The new SEC/DOJ policy guarantees no prosecution.
- 80% of the tokens are allocated to insiders during the presidential term.
- Most of the people losing money will be those who are not crypto-native MAGA supporters.
- What should have been a crime now seems to be legal?
Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, interpreted the TRUMP launch event: the shift in atmosphere from the anti-crypto Biden era to the Trump era is remarkable. Trump holds 80% of the TRUMP coin share and launched it just hours before the inauguration, which is predatory, and many may be harmed as a result. Trump should airdrop to the public instead of using this to enrich himself or his team. Currently, it looks like an FTX token.
In addition, the issuance method of the TRUMP coin raises questions about potential conflicts of interest. Currently, products associated with Trump include the DeFi project World Liberty Financial, golf clubs and resorts, hotels and real estate, publicly listed media companies, sneakers that can earn royalties, NFTs, etc., all of which pose risks of violating principles of illegal conflicts of interest.
Qiao WANG, founder of Alliance DAO, criticized that while it is cool for a president to fairly launch a meme coin, launching a currency that allocates 80% of the supply to insiders completely changes its nature, which is a textbook definition of fraud.
Through the issuance of the TRUMP coin, Trump has theoretically accumulated immense wealth rapidly, which has also drawn the attention of regulatory agencies. According to Bloomberg, multiple institutions believe that Trump's issuance of the meme coin TRUMP is unethical. Danielle Brian, executive director of the nonpartisan Project on Government Oversight, stated that memecoins are typically unrelated to any underlying business, making them highly speculative for investors, while potentially yielding substantial profits for founders, further crossing ethical boundaries. Other groups expressing concerns include the nonprofit Campaign Legal Center and the Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.
Veteran in the crypto industry, Arthur Hayes, commented that this marks the launch of the political memecoin market. Any politician unafraid of public opinion will launch their own memecoin. The economics of these tokens are fugazi (note: a derogatory term for fake things), but this "bullshit" will develop into a $100 billion market.
However, venture capitalist Chris Burniske expressed a positive attitude, noting his discomfort with the token distribution but recognizing its immense potential for future innovation, stating that it is similar to the impact of "The DAO movement" on the ICO boom in 2016.
Certainly, TRUMP has successfully brought fresh blood and new users to the crypto market. Overall, the rapid appreciation of the TRUMP coin and the operations behind it have not only led to a swift increase in Trump's personal wealth but have also focused the crypto market's attention on this new intersection of politics and cryptocurrency through the meme coin. As the market continues to evolve, the TRUMP coin event may become an important marker in the evolution of the crypto industry, reminding us that while pursuing quick returns, we must also cautiously face market risks and ethical considerations. How the future of the crypto industry will develop remains to be seen, but we can anticipate that the balance between innovation and regulation will be a core issue to watch in the coming years.
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