Yesterday at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the CPI in December 2024 rose by 2.9% year-on-year, up from 2.7%, marking the highest level since July of last year. The core CPI in December increased by 3.2% year-on-year, down from 3.3%.

Following the release of the December 2024 inflation data, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in January remained unchanged. As of January 15 local time, the "Fed Watch" data indicated a 97.3% probability that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged in January, with a 2.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut. The probability of maintaining the current rate until March is 72%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 27.3%, and a cumulative cut of 50 basis points is 0.7%.

Additionally, Trump is set to be sworn in on January 20, and the new government may quickly implement a series of policies. Market participants are weighing the potential risks of inflationary tariffs and immigration policies, as well as the implications of Trump's commitment to making the U.S. a global cryptocurrency hub. Trump is expected to issue an executive order on his first day in office, which may address issues related to the de-banking of the cryptocurrency industry and the repeal of the controversial cryptocurrency accounting standard SAB121.

In the cryptocurrency sector, following the release of the CPI data, Bitcoin surged, stopping just $200 short of the $100,000 mark at $99,800. Although it later retreated slightly, this did not halt Bitcoin's upward momentum, reaching a peak price of $100,866 around 4 AM today, marking the first time it has surpassed the $100,000 threshold since its high on January 7. As of the time of writing, the price is quoted at $99,242, with a nearly 2.51% increase in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin 4-Hour Chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the current price is operating near the upper band, indicating that the market is currently in an overbought area. The price approaching the upper band may suggest a potential pullback or consolidation in the near term. If the price retraces to the middle band, there will be greater support.

Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the KDJ three-line values are in the high overbought area and are crossing downwards to form a death cross pattern. If the J line value accelerates downwards, the subsequent price will likely pull back.

Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 4H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line is above the DEA line, showing a strong bullish trend. However, the MACD red histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that the upward momentum is weakening, and a pullback is likely in the short term. If the DIF line crosses below the DEA line to form a death cross pattern, it may trigger a bearish signal.

Bitcoin 1-Hour Chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the current price has broken through the upper band, which is usually a signal that the market is overbought, indicating a certain risk of pullback in the short term. The middle band serves as a support line, and if the price falls back to the vicinity of the middle band, it may find support.

Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the K line value is above the D line value, and the J line value is also above, indicating that the market is currently in a bullish state but is already above the overbought area. If the J line value begins to fall back, and the K line value and D line value form a death cross pattern downwards, it may lead to a price pullback.

Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the 1H Bitcoin chart, the DIF line and DEA line are crossing downwards, and the MACD green histogram is beginning to grow, indicating that the market's upward momentum is weakening, and there is a certain risk of pullback. If the DIF line crosses below the DEA line to form a death cross pattern, it will further confirm the possibility of a pullback.

In summary, the current market shows a strong bullish trend, but due to the interruption of MACD momentum and the KDJ indicator being in the overbought area, a pullback or consolidation may occur. If the price breaks below the middle band of the pullback Bollinger Bands or experiences a significant drop, short-term support may emerge.

Based on the above, the following suggestions are provided for reference:

Short Bitcoin at the current price of 99,200-99,400, targeting 97,600-96,400, with a stop loss at 99,800.

Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, I prefer to provide you with the right mindset and trend. After all, teaching someone to fish is better than giving them a fish; the goal is to learn to earn for a lifetime! The focus is on the mindset, grasping the trend, and planning the market layout and position. What I can do is use my practical experience to help you, guiding your investment decisions and management in the right direction.

Writing time: (2025-01-16, 19:00)

(Written by - Master Says Coin) Disclaimer: Online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the investment fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, forex, stocks, etc., with years of experience in the financial market and rich practical operation experience. Investment carries risks; please proceed with caution. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the official account Master Says Coin for discussion and exchange.

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