Master Discusses Hot Topics:

Today, let's talk about the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates in January, which is almost a certainty, and it's highly likely that there won't be a rate cut in March either. If you really believe in the dot plot, the two rate cuts in 2025 are expected to be in the second half of the year, with no sign of a cut in the first half.

So, the Federal Reserve is aware that inflation isn't something that can be decided based on a single data point. Even if the December CPI drops to 2%, do you think they would immediately slam the table and cut rates? Don't be ridiculous; rate cuts are a slow process that takes time to materialize.

Of course, market sentiment still needs to be considered, especially with tonight's CPI report. Last month it was 2.7%, and this time the market expects 2.9%. As long as it comes in below expectations, it's good news, and the lower, the better.

If it comes in a bit higher, don't rush to worry unnecessarily; the Federal Reserve won't flip and raise rates just because of one high expectation. What’s more important is the core CPI, which is the key to the core PCE. As long as the annual rate stays below 3.3% and the monthly rate declines as expected, the market can breathe a sigh of relief.

Now, let's review the big drop on Monday, where Bitcoin fell below 90k. Ethereum is also on the verge of dropping below 3k, which is indeed quite alarming. But if we take a closer look, despite the volatility in Ethereum, investor sentiment hasn't collapsed; we can even see BlackRock quietly increasing its holdings in spot ETFs, with a noticeable buying volume.

Fidelity has bought a little, but the key point is that they sold even less. Even Grayscale only symbolically sold 288 ETH, so the overall liquidity remains stable. Therefore, don't let short-term price fluctuations cloud your judgment in the near term.

The investment institutions in Ethereum and Bitcoin are actually calmer than you might think. Look, BlackRock is still buying; where's the sense of despair? However, liquidity may lag a bit; this week's data might not be as good as last week's, but as long as the rhythm is maintained, what does a short-term decline in the market matter?

Additionally, I see some people saying that Bitcoin needs to stabilize at 100k or 102k to signal a reversal, and that a one-sided upward trend will begin. I can only say that this view is too textbook. The significance of short-term trading is not to wait until the market has already given an answer before taking action. If you really wait until then, would you still dare to jump in? By the time it hits 100k and you shout to go all in, it’s already too late because you’ve missed the best entry point.

The core of short-term logic lies in "preemptive positioning and subsequent following." You can't miss a good opportunity just because you're afraid of being wrong. A reversal point is not just a single data point or price; it’s also a strategy and a rhythm. You need to strike while the iron is hot; if you wait until the market cools down to act, your enthusiasm may turn into regret from watching.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference:

First Resistance Level: 98500

Second Resistance Level: 97200

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 96200

Second Support Level: 95300

Today's Suggestions:

The possibility of Bitcoin retesting 100k is gradually increasing, and the current trend has formed a converging triangle pattern. If it breaks above the upper convergence and stabilizes, 98.5k will become the first testing range.

If Bitcoin can raise its low points and continue to consolidate before the CPI announcement, a smaller stop-loss can be set for short-term trades, anticipating a quick surge after the CPI data comes in below expectations. At the same time, be aware that market sentiment may push prices beyond expectations, so stop-loss settings must be cautious.

Currently, the area can be combined with the 20-day moving average to observe the trend of raising low points. If it breaks below the lower convergence of the triangle, we need to consider Bitcoin further probing down to 95.3k and look for entry opportunities in that area. For ultra-short-term trades, you can build positions in batches in the 95.3-96.2k range, adopting a more conservative strategy.

1.15 Master’s Band Trading Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Light long positions in the 94700-95300 range. If it retraces to around 93000, go long directly. Target: 96200-97200-98500

Short Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

This article is exclusively planned and published by Master Chen (public account: Coin God Master Chen). If you want to learn more about real-time investment strategies, liquidation, spot trading, short, medium, and long-term contract trading techniques, operational skills, and knowledge about candlesticks, you can join Master Chen for learning and communication. A free experience group for fans has been opened, along with community live broadcasts and other quality experience projects!

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