In the comments at the end of articles these days, many readers have expressed anxiety about the current market situation.
I estimate that the main reason for this anxiety is the overall decline in the market.
Regarding this, I actually shared my views in last Friday's article, and I have also shared my thoughts in earlier articles:
If this round of Bitcoin just ends like this and turns downward, then we had already made plans long ago—holding onto our Bitcoin and waiting for another four years to make plans for the next cycle.
This is true for Bitcoin, and even more so for Ethereum.
During the online discussion last Saturday, several listeners specifically expressed concerns about the sluggish price of Ethereum. At that time, I also expressed my regret, but I emphasized that I am not worried at all about holding Ethereum.
I still stand by my words: if you are afraid to buy Ethereum, then there is really no need to waste time and energy in this ecosystem.
Additionally, I have mentioned that at least half of your crypto assets should be allocated to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
If investors are truly doing this, then let's first take a look at the status of the assets they hold.
Let's first consider the worst-case scenario:
Assuming an investor initially has a capital of $5,000, with $2,500 entirely invested in Ethereum, and the remaining $2,500 in other assets that have now gone to zero.
We will use the Ethereum dollar-cost averaging price of $2,500 as the cost price; their total assets now (based on the current Ethereum price of $3,200) would be $3,200.
Now let's look at the best-case scenario:
Assuming an investor has $5,000, with $2,500 wasted on random purchases that have all gone to zero, and the remaining $2,500 entirely invested in Bitcoin, with a cost price of $35,000, then their current assets (based on the current Bitcoin price of $95,000) would be $6,784.
So in the worst-case scenario, our current assets are between $3,200 and $6,700.
Generally speaking, if we are dollar-cost averaging, our average cost price for Ethereum is likely below $2,500, and for Bitcoin, it is likely below $35,000. Moreover, as long as we are not too unlucky, it is unlikely that the remaining 50% of our assets would all go to zero, right?
So no matter how bad it gets, our situation should be better than $3,200, right?
Even if our current assets are only $3,200, I firmly believe that in four years, the price of Ethereum will definitely not be in the same situation as today.
Therefore, as long as we are prepared for the worst and have a positive long-term outlook on the crypto ecosystem, I see no reason for anxiety from any perspective.
The estimation method above is based on short-term prices—which is the method I dislike the most for assessing value.
Furthermore, the calculation method above assumes that this round of market activity has ended; can we even determine that the market has ended right now?
I cannot determine that.
All I know is that the recent decline in the market has not affected the development of new things in the crypto ecosystem at all, has not impacted the fundamentals of many projects, and has not hindered the team building of many projects.
Given this, why are we so fixated on short-term price fluctuations and unwilling to focus our energy on areas that are more worthy of attention and more valuable?
I hope our readers, when feeling anxious, can take a moment to set aside their emotions and ask themselves whether the situations occurring today and in the future are what we had anticipated in advance.
If so, did we prepare for these unexpected situations beforehand?
If we did, then there is really no need to be anxious.
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