The AI Agent craze may fade, but at least it is not the time for the bubble to burst.
Written by: Golem, Odaily Planet Daily
Recently, the tokens in the AI Agent sector have generally retraced.
According to GMGN data, the mainstream AI Agent tokens in the Base ecosystem have seen significant declines over the past 7 days: VIRTUAL down over 39%, AIXBT down over 20%, GAME down over 30%, and LUNA down over 50%; in the Solana ecosystem, mainstream AI Agent tokens ai16z down over 45%, ELIZA down over 48%, and swarms and ARC down over 38%.
Since GOAT initiated a new model combining AI and Crypto, and ai16z and Virtuals have expanded the narrative of crypto AI Agents, more than three months have passed. Therefore, many in the market believe that the hype surrounding AI Agents has ended, and those who have not yet liquidated their positions have become the ones footing the bill for this "feast." Some even liken this round of AI Agent hype to a "faster-paced inscription craze."
Is the AI Agent craze nearing its end? The answer is not so.
What stage has AI Agent reached?
It is undeniable that in investing, we must respect cycles, entering the market before it peaks and exiting gracefully before the hype fades. Currently, AI Agents are in a deep squat phase, preparing for a high jump.
The impact of CEX on prices continues to diminish
From the perspective of market sentiment and liquidity, people generally view the listing of tokens on the "universe's largest exchange," Binance, as a terminal point for on-chain assets. When Binance lists a popular token from a sector, it signifies a dual peak in market sentiment and liquidity for that sector. However, after a period of FOMO, the market will return to calm. In this round of AI Agent narratives, the impact of CEX listings on tokens may not be as significant as imagined.
According to public information, Binance has launched perpetual contract trading for ai16z and swarms, and only listed AIXBT for spot trading on January 10. Although the listing of ai16z and swarms contracts initially caused market FUD leading to price drops, both subsequently rebounded; similarly, even after Binance announced the listing of AIXBT for spot trading, the price returned to normal levels after a brief period of FOMO lasting a few hours.
According to Cointelegraph statistics, on January 7, the proportion of spot cryptocurrency trading volume on DEX exceeded 20% for the first time. As more people engage in on-chain trading, the influence of CEX on the prices of on-chain assets will continue to diminish.
AI Agent is the Metaverse of 2025
The world went crazy for the Metaverse in 2021, and in 2025, the world will go crazy for AI Agents.
The Metaverse in 2021 not only thrived in the web3 space but also sparked a wave in web2 internet companies, with the most notable event being social media giant Facebook rebranding to Meta, going all-in on the Metaverse. In 2025, Nvidia resembles the Meta of that year, attracting attention in the AI Agent wave. Nvidia's founder, Jensen Huang, mentioned in his keynote speech at CES 2025 that "over 30 million developers worldwide will have their own software assistants in the future, or they will fall behind their peers. Moreover, AI Agents are expected to become the next robotics industry, with a market scale reaching trillions of dollars."
Web3 has always enjoyed combining with "hot narratives," from major tech industry trends to the story of a squirrel killed in the U.S. The Metaverse craze in 2021 gave birth to companies like Decentraland in web3, which, excluding derivative assets, had a peak token market cap exceeding $10 billion. However, neither ai16z nor virtuals have yet reached a market cap of $10 billion.
2025 is the year of the AI Agent explosion, and the traditional web2 tech industry's enthusiasm for it has not yet ended; web3 is just getting started.
Is AI Agent a faster-paced version of inscriptions?
Additionally, there is a viewpoint in the market that interprets AI Agents as a faster-paced version of inscriptions. There are indeed some similarities between the two, such as AI Agents being fairly distributed through a model similar to the fair minting of inscriptions; the framework competition among AI Agents resembles the asset issuance protocol disputes in the Bitcoin ecosystem, where overall, there are no significant differences between the frameworks, but there are subtle distinctions; and the quicker launch of better-narrative assets is akin to the rapid minting of popular inscription assets.
However, there are also differences between the two:
Higher market acceptance and recognition for AI Agents: This round of AI Agents was born in the fertile soil of Solana Meme, leading to higher market acceptance. Moreover, AI Agents are not the first combination of AI and Crypto; players have previously undergone market education, resulting in higher recognition.
AI Agents are building from 1 to 100: Inscriptions were born in the "barren soil" of the Bitcoin ecosystem, where ecological construction was a pioneering effort from 0 to 1; whereas AI Agents are building from 1 to 100, with Solana already having a well-established infrastructure for liquidity; and many references can be found in the AI industry for technical aspects. Therefore, the ecological construction of AI Agents will be much faster than that of inscriptions.
Broader narrative scope: As mentioned earlier, 2025 is the year of the AI Agent explosion. Although web3's AI Agents differ slightly from traditional tech industries, they are still part of the trend, with a broader market scope and participant base, representing a very long-term narrative that even has the potential to break out of its niche.
Frankly speaking, Web3 indeed does not have a narrative that remains unchanged forever. The AI Agent craze may fade, but at least it is not the time for the bubble to burst. As for the reasons behind this widespread retracement, it cannot be ruled out that it is due to…
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