AI Agent represents the hope of the entire village, and its potential has just begun to explode; it does not have the fundamentals to declare an end right now.
Written by: Haotian
I believe many people have been confused by the continuous market decline in recent days, to the point where the originally vibrant AI Agent narrative has been overshadowed. All words boil down to one question: Has the new narrative of AI Agent declared Over? To be honest, I don't know if the coin price has bottomed out, but the evolution of the AI Agent narrative is still on a clear path. Here are a few points of view:
1) There’s no need to say much to comfort everyone; like everyone else, those who had high hopes and confidence in AI Agent are enduring the pain of continuous position value shrinkage.
The core reason is that, although the primary market has clear "value investment research" directions chasing AI infrastructure, framework standards, applications, etc., the secondary market has become overly MEME-like, and the teams appear somewhat amateurish. The overall risk in the chaotic AI Agent market far outweighs the opportunities.
Therefore, in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty and unclear trends in Bitcoin, the AI Agent track, as a new on-chain track, naturally became the first target for capital to exit for risk aversion, making it even harder for this already illiquid track to withstand significant market fluctuations. Thus, a halving in value seems to have become a foregone conclusion, with some even nearing zero. But don’t forget, perhaps because of this, once the market environment stabilizes and opportunities arise again, the AI Agent track is likely to be the first to take off.
2) Various signs indicate that the potential of the AI Agent new narrative has just begun to emerge and cannot be halted. On one hand, the new forces of AI entrepreneurship spilling over from web2 are increasingly noticing the potential opportunities in the web3 field, and more excellent teams and projects will enter web3 to explore new possibilities. On the other hand, many of the old narratives in web3 that have fallen into difficulties will tightly grasp the new narrative of AI Agent to attempt breakthroughs, with many well-known VCs and established web3 teams planning to nurture new projects.
In summary, AI Agent represents the hope of the entire village, and its potential has just begun to explode; it does not have the fundamentals to declare an end right now. Especially with the collective entry of some VCs and mature project parties, it will reshape the current chaos caused by overly amateurish teams, further raising the technical threshold (standardization) and the level of competition in the industry. For retail investors, this means that the stability and maturity of the track will improve;
3) The two major AI Agent camps, #ai16z and #Virtual, have exposed their own issues through this wave of turbulence, including the chaos in resource integration within ai16z and the uncertainty in the development momentum of the Virtual closed-source ecosystem. After this significant fluctuation, being able to detach from a FOMO state and return to calm is a good thing. Over-mythologizing any faction is not conducive to the subsequent explosion of greater potential.
After all, ai16z, as a major commercial IP, is essentially a spiritual totem; open-source innovation and community vitality represent the true future of ai16z. Regardless of how the market FUD @shawmakesmagic portrays it, as long as the developer community continues to revolve around the ElizaOS framework, the future of ai16z remains immeasurable;
The downside of Virtual's closed-source ecosystem lies in the positive/negative spiral characteristics of its Tokenomics, which are particularly prominent during market uptrends and corrections. However, this reflects its speculative nature outweighing its application value. I am more concerned about how the Virtual closed-source model can create more high-experience single AI applications like @aixbt_agent.
4) Over the past three months, AI Agent has rushed through AI MEME, AI single applications, AI frameworks and standards, AI chain engineering, AI metaverse, DeFai, and other directions. This speed of evolution is actually quite dangerous. Take frameworks and standards as an example; no matter how beautifully they are described, they cannot change the suspicion of "drawing a pie." The track is still in the stage of using single AI to change user mindshare, lacking a rich application market, merely engaging in internal competition over frameworks and standards, which is meaningless.
Ultimately, it boils down to the market's chaotic value assessment system for the new direction of AI Agent. Many people seem to value more abstract directions like frameworks, standards, and the metaverse higher, but that is not the case.
The foundation of the AI Agent track's development is "application-first." Any concept or direction that cannot be built on an application foundation is futile. If a hasty speculation cycle ends up in chaos, there is no doubt that single AI applications will be the focus of the next stage of competition. Multi-modal interaction, AI metaverse, and DeFai can all be speculated upon, but please first take the Agent out for a spin.
5) The overall trend of "chainization" for AI Agent will still exist, but it has reached the stage of project delivery. Currently, the ElizaOS framework only has some practical initial solutions in areas like Memory and Character. There are many challenges to incorporate decentralized thinking into chainization.
For example, DA capability: traditional layer2 achieves limited DA expansion through off-chain zk Proof and on-chain distributed verification. However, how to ZK-ify the dynamic Prompt input and output of LLMs and how to verify data availability after a long period are significant projects. Another example is Oracle capability: seemingly simple tasks of feeding on-chain + off-chain data to AI Agents, but balancing real-time performance and computational overhead, as well as the complexity of on-chain data and the trustworthiness of off-chain data, are all major challenges.
Therefore, I still firmly believe that "chainization" will be the main theme of AI Agent's evolution moving forward, but how to deliver some genuinely valuable, scalable, and verifiable solutions is key. Simply applying the old chain narrative to AI Agent is not unfeasible, but there are still many detailed engineering implementation guidelines that need to be refined.
That’s all.
Although it is highly likely that the direction of AI Agent will continue to be characterized by "chaos," AI Agent is a new direction meant to redeem the old narrative. This means the market will scrutinize and critically evaluate all its evolutionary trends.
Like some who attempt to bring high FDV VC coins into the AI Agent field, like AICC, which is filled with elite predatory individuals, and like some who harbor ill intentions and merely see web3 as a financing channel. A word of advice: AI Agent is ultimately a grassroots power's path to resurgence; it thrives on community, and it can also fail due to community. Projects that do not bind the interests of the community to co-build will not go far.
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