Many people must be feeling confused by the continuous market downturn, which has cast a shadow over the originally vibrant narrative of AI Agents. All words boil down to one question: Has the new narrative of AI Agents declared an end? To be honest, I don't know if the coin prices have hit bottom, but the evolution of the AI Agent narrative still has a clear path ahead. Here are a few points of view:
1) There’s no need to say much to comfort everyone; like everyone else, those who had high hopes and confidence in AI Agents are enduring the pain of continuous position value shrinkage.
The core reason is that, although the primary market has clear "value research" directions focusing on AI infrastructure, framework standards, applications, etc., the secondary market has become overly MEME-like, and the teams appear somewhat amateurish. The overall risk in the chaotic AI Agent market far outweighs the opportunities.
Therefore, in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty and unclear trends in Bitcoin, the AI Agent sector, as a new on-chain track, has naturally become the first target for capital to exit as a safe haven, making it even harder for this already illiquid sector to withstand significant market fluctuations. Thus, a halving in value seems to be a foregone conclusion, while a near-zero outcome appears likely. But don’t forget, perhaps because of this, once the broader market stabilizes and opportunities arise again, the AI Agent sector is likely to be the first to take off.
2) Various signs indicate that the momentum of the new narrative of AI Agents has just begun to emerge and cannot be halted. On one hand, the new generation of AI entrepreneurs spilling over from web2 is increasingly noticing potential opportunities in the web3 space, leading to more excellent teams and projects entering web3 to explore new possibilities. On the other hand, many of the old narratives in web3 that have fallen into difficulties will tightly grasp the new narrative of AI Agents to seek breakthroughs, with many well-known VCs and established web3 teams planning to nurture new projects.
In summary, AI Agents represent the hope of the entire community, and their momentum has just begun to explode, lacking the fundamental basis to declare an end now. Especially with the collective entry of some VCs and mature project parties, it will help to reshape the current chaos caused by overly amateurish teams, further raising the technical threshold (standardization) and the level of competition in the industry. For retail investors, this means that the stability and maturity of the sector will improve.
3) The two major AI Agent camps, #ai16z and #Virtual, have exposed their own issues through this wave of turbulence, including the chaos in resource integration within ai16z and the uncertainty in the development potential of the closed-source ecosystem of Virtual. After this significant fluctuation, being able to detach from a FOMO state and return to calm is a good thing. Over-mythologizing any faction is not conducive to the subsequent explosion of greater momentum.
After all, ai16z, as a major commercial IP, is essentially a spiritual totem; open-source innovation and community vitality represent the true future of ai16z. Regardless of how the market FUD @shawmakesmagic perceives it, as long as the developer community continues to revolve around the ElizaOS framework, the future of ai16z remains immeasurable.
The downside of Virtual's closed-source ecosystem lies in the positive/negative spiral characteristics of its Tokenomics, which are particularly prominent during market upswings and corrections. However, this reflects its speculative nature outweighing its application value. I am more concerned about how the closed-source model of Virtual can create more high-quality individual AI applications like @aixbt_agent.
4) Over the past three months, AI Agents have rushed through a cycle from AI MEME, AI individual applications, AI frameworks and standards, AI on-chain engineering, AI metaverse, to DeFai. This speed of evolution is actually quite dangerous. Take frameworks and standards as an example; no matter how beautifully they are described, they still carry the suspicion of being mere "pie in the sky." The sector is still in the stage of using individual AI to change user mindshare, lacking a rich application market, merely engaging in the internal competition of frameworks and standards, which is meaningless.
Ultimately, the confusion in the market's value assessment system for the new direction of AI Agents is at the root of the issue. Many people tend to assign higher valuations to seemingly more abstract directions like framework standards and the metaverse, but this is not the case.
The development foundation of the AI Agent sector is "application-first." Any concept or direction that cannot be built on an application foundation is futile. If a hasty speculation cycle ends up in chaos, there is no doubt that individual AI applications will be the focus of the next stage of competition. Multi-modal interaction, AI metaverse, and DeFai can all be speculated upon, but please first take the Agent out for a spin.
5) The overall trend of "on-chaining" AI Agents will still exist, but it is time for phased project delivery. Currently, the ElizaOS framework only has some practical initial solutions in areas like Memory and Character. There are many challenges to incorporate decentralized thinking into on-chaining.
For example, DA capability: traditional layer2 achieves limited DA expansion through off-chain zk Proof and on-chain distributed verification. However, how to ZK-ify the dynamic Prompt input and output of LLMs and how to verify data availability after a long period are significant projects. Another example is Oracle capability: seemingly simple tasks of feeding on-chain and off-chain data to AI Agents, but balancing real-time performance and computational overhead, as well as the complexity of on-chain data and the trustworthiness of off-chain data, are all major challenges.
Therefore, I still firmly believe that "on-chaining" will be the main theme of the evolution of AI Agents moving forward, but the key is how to deliver some genuinely valuable, scalable, and verifiable solutions. Simply applying the old chain narrative to AI Agents is not impossible, but there are still many detailed engineering implementation guidelines that need to be refined.
That’s all.
Although it is highly likely that the direction of AI Agents will continue to be characterized by "chaos," AI Agents are a new direction meant to redeem the old narratives, which means the market will scrutinize and critically evaluate all their evolutionary trends.
Like some who attempt to bring high FDV VC coins into the AI Agent field, like AICC, which is filled with elite predatory practices, and like some ill-intentioned individuals who merely see web3 as a financing channel. I advise that AI Agents are ultimately a grassroots power's path to resurgence; success or failure depends on the community. Projects that do not bind the interests of the community to co-build will not go far.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
