Macroeconomic factors lead to a temporary cooling of the market.

Written by: BitpushNews

In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin staged a V-shaped reversal, hitting an eight-week low of $90,000 before rebounding to above $94,000 after the U.S. stock market closed, with the market caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Over the past week, BTC has dropped more than 7%. Although its market capitalization continues to hover around $1.864 trillion, its dominance has slightly decreased to 54.2%.

Macroeconomic Factors Lead to a Temporary Cooling of the Market

Experts believe that the pullback that began last week is attributed to optimistic economic data from the U.S., including initial jobless claims and labor participation rates that were stronger than expected. This data has intensified concerns that interest rates may remain high for longer than anticipated.

Chris Chung, CEO and founder of Titan, stated: "The market seems very worried that there may not be any rate cuts in 2025, especially after the incredibly strong employment report released on Friday. However, we also experienced a significant rise in December, so it is not uncommon for the market to readjust after such a large increase."

He pointed out that with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump set to hold his inauguration next week, there remains "further downside risk" in the cryptocurrency market.

Chris Chung added: "Everyone expects Trump to announce regulations supporting cryptocurrencies on his first day, but he may start with more pressing issues from the Republican-controlled House and Senate, combined with macro concerns and upcoming token unlocks, which could prolong this market adjustment until February or even March."

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, noted in his fund report: "The honeymoon period after the U.S. elections is over, and macroeconomic data has once again become a key driver of asset prices."

Derivatives Data Shows Sentiment is Mild to Neutral

It is noteworthy that the response in the Bitcoin derivatives market has been relatively mild.

First, the futures premium is relatively high; Bitcoin futures contracts typically trade at a premium to the spot market, reflecting optimistic expectations for future prices. Data shows that the current annualized premium rate has reached 11%, above the neutral range of 5%-10%, indicating that market participants remain generally optimistic.

Another indicator is the perpetual contract funding rate (which usually reflects market sentiment). Although on January 13, due to a surge of short positions, the funding rate briefly turned negative, accompanied by $107 million in long liquidations, it quickly rebounded to around 0.5% monthly, showing that there has not been a sustained bearish sentiment in the market.

CME Gap Pressure, Will It Be Filled?

Analysts indicate that there is a gap between $88,500 and $77,500 on the CME. A CME gap occurs when there is a difference between the closing price of Bitcoin futures on one trading day and the opening price on the next trading day, which typically causes Bitcoin to tend to return to a certain level. If Bitcoin faces a downward correction, this gap represents a potential bearish target.

Analysts believe that given Bitcoin's current price of around $94,000, a drop from this level could lead to a significant correction, potentially causing a decline of up to 18% to fill this CME gap.

In addition to the CME gap, veteran market analysts like Peter Brandt have pointed out potential bearish signals on the Bitcoin daily chart. Brandt noted that a head and shoulders (H&S) pattern may form, which could indicate that Bitcoin's price might drop to $73,000. However, Brandt also cautioned against relying too heavily on this chart, as BTC's volatility often leads to changes in chart patterns.

Therefore, the current trend of Bitcoin is influenced by multiple complex factors. While the derivatives market remains relatively calm, the CME futures market gap, potential head and shoulders pattern, and the presence of key support levels increase the risk of a price downward correction. If Bitcoin continues to face pressure, the market will closely monitor whether it will fill the CME gap, which could trigger significant market volatility.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。