Today's News Highlights:
Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: CPI and "terrifying data" may overturn interest rate cut expectations, Federal Reserve shifts to a cautious stance.
New York Attorney General summons fraudsters who stole $2.2 million in cryptocurrency through an airdrop NFT.
Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary nominee by Trump, plans to divest dozens of assets, including crypto ETFs, to avoid conflicts of interest.
Aiccelerate DAO will increase token vesting in response to criticism of its launch.
Polymarket defined as an illegal gambling site in Singapore and blocked.
Litecoin's official X account was hacked, posting false token tweets.
The president of The ETF Store releases 10 cryptocurrency-related ETF predictions for 2025.
NFT trading volume increased by 10.7% week-on-week to $155.4 million, with both the number of buyers and sellers dropping by over 70%.
Regulation/Macroeconomics
This week has been eventful, with the first non-farm payroll report of the year significantly exceeding expectations, causing severe market fluctuations. The report showed that the U.S. added 256,000 jobs in December, far above the expected 165,000. The employment figures for the past two months were revised down by 8,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, while the expected unemployment rate was to remain at 4.2% or possibly rise to 4.3%. Wages grew by 0.3% month-on-month, and year-on-year wage growth slowed from 4% to 3.9%. This data led to a sell-off in the U.S. stock market, as the strong non-farm payroll report raised new concerns about inflation and led to the belief that the Federal Reserve would be more cautious in cutting interest rates this year, with the S&P 500 index dropping to a weekly low. Bank of America has indicated that they currently expect the Federal Reserve will not cut rates in 2025. Next week, the U.S. will release several key data points, including PPI, CPI, and "terrifying data," which will continue to bring volatility to the market. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:
- Tuesday 00:00, U.S. December New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations;
- Tuesday 21:30, U.S. December PPI data;
- Tuesday 23:00, 2025 FOMC voting member, Kansas Fed President George speaks;
- Wednesday 04:00, FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams delivers opening remarks at an event;
- Wednesday 21:00, 2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks;
- Wednesday 21:30, U.S. December CPI data, U.S. January New York Fed manufacturing index;
- Wednesday 23:00, 2026 FOMC voting member, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari delivers welcome remarks and participates in a fireside chat at a Minneapolis Fed-hosted online regional economic conference;
- Thursday 00:00, FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams speaks;
- Thursday 01:00, 2025 FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks;
- Thursday 03:00, Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions;
- Thursday 21:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending January 11, December retail sales month-on-month.
As the Federal Reserve shifts to a more cautious stance, the CPI report from last November showed some encouraging signs, indicating that price increases in housing and broader service categories (the biggest contributors to sticky inflation) have begun to ease. This raises the possibility of a downside surprise in the CPI data set to be released next Wednesday, but any slowdown is more likely to occur in the first few months of 2025 rather than in the December CPI data. Before the CPI data is released, investors will focus on the U.S. December PPI data scheduled for release next Tuesday, while on Thursday, all eyes will be on the retail sales data known as "terrifying data."
New York Attorney General Letitia James has filed a lawsuit accusing a cryptocurrency fraud ring of stealing at least $2.2 million from New Yorkers through fake remote job opportunities. James plans to serve the alleged fraudsters with a lawsuit by airdropping NFTs to the wallets controlled by the scammers. A press release from the Attorney General's office stated, "The NFT service will provide the fraudsters with a notice of the lawsuit, linking them to the [Attorney General's office] website containing all the complaints." "No other state or federal regulatory agency has used this method to file a lawsuit before."
According to Bloomberg, Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary nominee selected by President-elect Donald Trump, plans to resign from his position at Key Square Group and sell his stakes in partnerships to avoid conflicts of interest if confirmed by the Senate.
Scott Bessent disclosed assets worth at least $521 million in his personal financial disclosure, listing nine high-level assets, all linked to his hedge fund. These include two batches of U.S. Treasury bonds, two Invesco funds, and open positions in foreign exchange rates. He also listed a personal investment of no more than $500,000, which is linked to the price of Bitcoin through an iShares exchange-traded fund. Like the assets he holds through Key Square Capital, Bessent will divest cryptocurrency-based ETFs. According to his disclosure, Key Square Group will close at the end of March.
Some of Scott Bessent's potential conflicts of interest will take longer to resolve. He has invested at least $250,000 in three funds that allow him to withdraw no more than 25% of his holdings each quarter. He will not be able to fully withdraw his holdings until the end of September, which is much longer than the usual 90-day disclosure window. Scott Bessent stated that he will avoid specific decisions that could have a predictable impact on stock values. He also listed residential real estate in the Bahamas valued at at least $5 million and a collection of art and antiques valued at at least $1 million.
Project Updates
RWA stablecoin issuer Usual announced on the X platform that it has recognized the significant community reaction to its pegged stablecoin USD0++ significantly depegging from $1, and will launch a series of measures to address user concerns and stabilize the ecosystem. It is reported that its "Revenue Switch" function is set to launch on January 13, allowing Usual Protocol to share its earnings from real-world assets and protocol operations with the community. The team expects monthly revenue of about $5 million, with an annual return rate exceeding 50% under current conditions, and these distributions will occur weekly to solidify the actual value of USUAL, balance its economic model, and the income generated by the protocol. (Note: The revenue switch function will officially activate once more than 50% of USUAL tokens are staked as USUALx. If the requirement is not met, it will automatically activate on February 1, 2025. Once activated: 100% of the revenue (up to $5 million per month) will flow to USUALx stakers in the form of USD0.)
Additionally, the Usual Protocol team stated that it will launch a "1:1 early unstaking" feature next week, allowing users to exchange USD0++ at a rate of $1, but requiring them to forfeit part of their accumulated rewards as a penalty.
Aiccelerate DAO will increase token vesting in response to criticism of its launch
Aiccelerate DAO (AICC), focused on crypto AI, launched with a current value of approximately $150 million, which has sparked criticism from the community. The project distributed 100% of its tokens to 245 advisors and insiders, some of whom sold their allocations after the token surged.
Aiccelerate launched on the platform Daos.fun, having raised 943 SOL from invited presale participants, valued at approximately $175,000 at current prices. About $75,000 came from "VIPs," including co-founders and advisors of the project, such as the founder of Eliza Labs and venture capital from companies like Coinbase Ventures. The remaining approximately $100,000 came from other insiders, each receiving a maximum of 2 SOL.
Aiccelerate DAO was co-founded by Markus Jun, Ejaaz Ahamadeen, and pseudonymous user Ropirito, and its value has skyrocketed, currently valued at approximately $150 million, nearly 1,000 times its initial funding amount. However, some X users noticed that certain insiders seemed to quickly sell their initial allocations, leading to controversy.
Bankless Ventures sold its 10% allocation shortly after AICC's launch. After facing criticism on X, the organization later repurchased these tokens. Bankless co-founder David Hoffman tweeted, "I agree that Bankless Ventures should not have sold the tokens; it was an impulsive mistake." "We have repurchased all the sold tokens, restoring the quantity to its original level, and are discussing a self-imposed vesting schedule."
Some X users noted that certain users invited to the presale had little activity or attention on X. However, technical issues with the Daos.fun invitation system led some users to create temporary accounts to receive allocations.
Ejaaz Ahamadeen wrote on X, "I know many people are moving funds to safer wallets instead of keeping them in hot wallets." Another insider described issues with "syncing" his original account.
AICC posted on its X account in response to the controversy, which was suspended for unknown reasons on Saturday. In the post, the DAO stated, "We will implement token vesting for individuals and are in discussions with advisors." The DAO also reiterated its intention for long-term development.
In the controversy, Eliza Labs founder Shaw Walters posted on X that he donated half of his allocation to ai16z DAO and 20% to other contributors. "I hope Daos.fun can implement some form of vesting or locking in the future, so that the launch feels fairer."
Litecoin's official X account was hacked, posting false token tweets
Litecoin (LTC)'s official X account was briefly hacked, with the hacker promoting a fake Litecoin token based on the Solana network, along with contract addresses and scam links. The Litecoin team subsequently announced that they had regained control of the account, deleted the post, and stated that the attack was due to a compromised delegated account, which has now been removed.
Polymarket defined as an illegal gambling site in Singapore and blocked
According to a screenshot from X user @alexzuo4, Polymarket was defined as an illegal gambling site and blocked when logging in from Singapore, with a message stating: "You are attempting to access an illegal gambling website hosted by an unlicensed gambling service provider. Singapore's licensed gambling operator is the only authorized online gambling operator in Singapore, and those found gambling with unlicensed gambling service providers will face fines of up to $10,000 or up to 6 months in prison."
Opinions
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin responded to community users stating, "Everyone in the tech world underestimates the importance of efficient capital formation for building the future," saying: "For me, what truly matters is creating funding structures that sustainably incentivize open source, open standards, and security, suppressing closed-mindedness and extractive practices, and universally promoting participation as positive-sum players in a broader ecosystem."
Tianfeng Securities: Bitcoin is Plan B under AI failure
Tianfeng Securities stated in a report that AI represents Plan A for maintaining the dollar's hegemonic status, while cryptocurrency represents Plan B for hedging against challenges to the dollar's position. However, whether it is Bitcoin or AI, energy is an unavoidable core element. Therefore, the essence of currency is credit, the essence of credit is order, the essence of order is technological competition, and the essence of technological competition is energy efficiency. Over the past two years, gold has benefited from de-dollarization and has become a favorite among investors. However, MAGA cannot tolerate the erosion of the dollar's monetary hegemony, so Trump needs an alternative to maintain the dollar's status. This alternative must be something that the U.S. can control and exert influence over; gold is likely already off the table, while cryptocurrencies represented by Bitcoin may still have a chance. But the essence of currency is credit, and without credit, it must inject credit.
The ETF Store president releases 10 cryptocurrency-related ETF predictions for 2025
The president of The ETF Store, Nate Geraci, released 10 cryptocurrency-related ETF predictions for 2025, believing that the Trump administration will adopt significantly different policies toward cryptocurrencies compared to the Biden administration, potentially making 2025 the "year of cryptocurrency ETFs." The main predictions are as follows:
- The assets of a spot Bitcoin ETF will exceed those of a physical gold ETF (this is obvious unless Bitcoin's price crashes);
- Approval of spot Ethereum ETF options trading;
- Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will allow for physical creation/redemption;
- Approval of staking for spot Ethereum ETFs;
- Launch of Bitwise Bitcoin Standard Company ETF, with assets under management exceeding $1 billion;
- At least 50 other cryptocurrency-related ETFs will be listed, including options-based products (covered call ETFs, outcome-based ETFs, etc.), stock ETFs priced in Bitcoin, and "Bitcoin bond" ETFs;
- Approval of a spot Solana ETF;
- Approval of a spot XRP ETF;
- Approval of Bitwise and Grayscale cryptocurrency index ETFs;
- Vanguard will allow customers to invest in spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs through brokerage accounts.
Important Data
According to monitoring by @ai_9684xtpa, three addresses suspected to belong to the same person or entity have sold a total of 26.52 million SWARMS in the past three days, worth approximately $8.08 million, suspected to be a major driving force behind the recent price drop. In the past three days, SWARMS has dropped by 28.82%, with the following sell-off events:
Address HikmG…S2Yat sold 16.52 million tokens (approximately $5.16 million) in the past three days, with one of its funding source addresses having sold 75% of its position and profited $3.73 million, while the remaining 5 million tokens still have an unrealized profit of $1.256 million, with a cost as low as $0.02291;
Address 384zS…g8RUL sold 5 million tokens in the past 11 hours, approximately $1.4 million;
Address BqbfX…k6pd1 sold 5 million tokens in two days, approximately $1.52 million.
According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, an insider spent 4.92 SOL ($930) to purchase 25.85 million AIOS on pump.fun. This insider has not sold any tokens yet, and their current value exceeds $3.05 million.
CryptoSlam data shows that NFT transaction volume increased by 10.7% this week, rising from $132.7 million last week to $155.4 million. The increase in total transaction volume was accompanied by a significant decrease in market participants, indicating an increase in trading volume while the number of buyers decreased. The number of NFT buyers dropped by 81.79% to 122,806; the number of NFT sellers decreased by 73.24% to 104,090; and the number of transactions slightly increased by 0.16% to 1,483,044.
Ethereum network NFT transaction volume grew by 13.09% to $61.9 million, but the number of buyers decreased by 65.62% to 24,836. Bitcoin network NFTs saw slight growth, with transaction volume increasing by 1.97% to $30.8 million, while the number of network buyers dropped by 87.15% to 8,665.
Pudgy Penguins' transaction volume reached $9.2 million, an increase of 82.32%. BRC-20 NFTs ranked second, with a transaction volume of $8.2 million, up 40.78%. DMarket remained in third place, with a transaction volume of $7.2 million, an increase of 8.06%.
This week's best-selling NFTs include:
- SuperRare #37380: $474,710 (474,710 USDC)
- CryptoPunks #4757: $453,894 (125 ETH)
- SuperRare #37380: $396,000 (108.7469 WETH)
- CryptoPunks #3698: $277,876 (82 ETH)
- Abstract Being: $222,680 (2.3681 BTC)
According to monitoring by Lookonchain, an ai16z whale spent 1,328 SOL ($250,000) yesterday to purchase 12.19 million AIOS (currently valued at $1.28 million), with an unrealized profit of over $1 million.
A savvy investor spent $7.84 million to buy 29.7 million SWARMS
According to monitoring by Lookonchain, four days ago, a savvy investor sold all their SWARMS for a profit of $8.42 million. In the past 20 hours, this savvy investor spent $7.84 million to purchase 29.7 million SWARMS at an average price of $0.26.
Among 31 listed Bitcoin mining companies, 26 have seen their stock prices rise this year
According to News.bitcoin, despite miners still struggling with revenue constraints related to Bitcoin prices being below the $100,000 threshold, the stocks of these publicly listed BTC mining companies are rising, indicating a good start to the new year. Bitcoinminingstock.io data shows that the combined market capitalization of 31 listed Bitcoin mining companies is $44.09 billion. Among them, 26 companies have witnessed an appreciation in their stock value relative to the dollar. Among the top ten companies by market capitalization, Riot Platforms (NASDAQ: RIOT) leads with a 17.53% increase in 2025. Following closely is Hut 8 (NASDAQ: HUT), which rose by 14.2%.
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