In principle, I completely agree, but there is one point I want to discuss with everyone, which is that the correlation between the recent US stock market and #BTC has actually been declining. I compared the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, and it is clear to see that the difference in correlation is significant (the closer to 1, the greater the correlation; negative numbers indicate negative correlation). The main reason for this is that the narratives in the crypto space and the US stock market are completely different right now. The US stock market focuses more on macro fundamentals and has its own earnings expectations. Even if Trump is elected, it may only be beneficial in certain sectors.

However, it can be said that cryptocurrencies have no independent narrative of their own and will not be favored just because of good performance. In fact, #Bitcoin has seen almost no changes in its own narrative since the halving; it has all relied on FOMO emotions.

The times when it exceeded $100,000 were basically due to the new SEC chair, the new CFTC chair, and the new White House cryptocurrency and economic director. These political forces are what drove it, and they have no direct relationship with cryptocurrencies themselves. A large number of investors also come from FOMO.

Therefore, I believe that even if tariff issues ultimately lead to an increase in DXY (the US dollar index), the situation shows that DXY is indeed correlated with BTC and other cryptocurrencies at certain times (negatively correlated), but at other times, there is almost no relationship. Many of these times stem from user FOMO. The source of user FOMO is also at the political level. It is undeniable that the majority of the rise of #Bitcoin from $65,000 to $108,000 is due to "politics."

So my personal view is that the large capital market pays more attention to details and follows macro trends more closely, while the closed small capital market is more deeply influenced by FOMO emotions. Compared to gold, the large market is the big market, while cryptocurrency is still a small market and relatively speaking, a closed market.

Therefore, I believe BTC is like a large version of "DOGE," and Trump is like a large version of Musk. When Musk shouts DOGE, BTC may not necessarily rise; when Trump shouts BTC, the US stock market may not necessarily rise. This is the reasoning behind it. Saying that Musk profits from cutting DOGE users and that Trump profits from shouting BTC is equally unreliable. The former acts on impulse, while the latter should be driven by capital.

Of course, what I say may not be correct; it is just my own opinion, and discussions are welcome.

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