I'm still a bit hesitant. When the price didn't move up in the morning, I considered exiting at $102,000, but I wasn't firm enough. Although I anticipated a high probability of maintaining a sideways trend, I still had a bit of luck mentality. Some friends asked if it was due to hedging against Friday's non-farm payroll data or concerns about today's job vacancies looking bad.
I don't think that's the reason. It's a bit early to hedge against non-farm data now, and this time the non-farm data shouldn't be too bad. If the unemployment rate rises but isn't outrageous, and employment isn't too poor, it would be beneficial for the Federal Reserve to increase the number of rate cuts, and there wouldn't be expectations of a recession. If the unemployment rate continues to decline, it indicates that the U.S. economy is quite resilient, which is a good thing.
So I think it's not quite right to say it's for hedging now. The U.S. stock market is also falling quite badly, and the dollar index has started to rise again, so let's wait and see.
Of course, I still maintain an optimistic attitude towards the power transition in Q1. If there’s no turnover, just hold on. My goal is to reduce some leverage rather than sell. I also don't think there are any issues with the current price; it's just a sideways situation.
If one really wants to hedge against non-farm data, it should be a Thursday matter.
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