Today's News Highlights:
Arthur Hayes: The crypto market may peak around mid-March, followed by a severe correction
Prediction markets show pro-crypto Pierre Poilievre is likely to become Canada's next Prime Minister
"SWARMS & ZEILGO top user" bought PRISM for 203.92 SOL last night
Ripple CEO: The company's original $11 billion valuation is "severely outdated"
Up to 20 "strategic Bitcoin reserve" bills will be proposed at the state level in the U.S.
Binance to launch COOKIE, ALCH, and SWARMS perpetual contracts, supporting up to 75x leverage
Regulation/Macro
According to the Financial Times, as competition for resources intensifies, U.S. Bitcoin miners are accumulating cryptocurrency funds to help them withstand tightening profit margins. Companies including Mara Holdings, Riot Platforms, and CleanSpark have raised over $3.7 billion from investors since last November, capitalizing on the surge in Bitcoin prices, and are using these funds to purchase Bitcoin. They typically raise funds through zero-interest (or near-zero-interest) convertible bonds. Core Scientific's Chief Development Officer Russell Cann stated, "It's not as simple as everyone being happy after the Bitcoin price rises. There are still complex challenges regarding profitability and grid access." Miners' plans also include expanding AI capabilities, marking a sharp turnaround in the industry's prospects. The industry has been struggling for the past eight months following the Bitcoin mining reward halving. Cann also mentioned, "The demand for AI in the U.S. will greatly impact the scale of Bitcoin mining." He predicts that most of Bitcoin's computing power will come from outside the U.S. in the coming years.
Canadian Prime Minister candidate Pierre Poilievre promised to make the country the "crypto capital"
According to Cointelegraph, popular Canadian Prime Minister candidate Pierre Poilievre has promised to make Canada the "crypto capital." In a recently circulated video from a campaign event in March 2022, Poilievre used Bitcoin to buy a shawarma and pledged a plan to "make Canada the world's blockchain and cryptocurrency capital." In his speech at the event, he criticized the central banking system and Canada's cryptocurrency regulations. He also stated that Bitcoin could help Canadians "escape" inflation—after a significant drop in the cryptocurrency market in 2023, he faced attacks from Liberal Party ads by the end of that year. Poilievre has also made other pro-crypto statements, including a post in 2022 promising that "buyers and sellers have the right to freely choose Bitcoin and other technologies." He also claimed that the Bank of Canada "lacks knowledge in finance" and vowed to prevent the bank from issuing "dangerous central bank digital currencies." Recently, in April 2024, he posted on social media supporting a bill that would ban central bank digital currencies and protect the use of cash. According to a CBC News poll, Poilievre has led the Conservative Party since 2022, and as of January 6, the party was 24 points ahead of the ruling Liberal Party, with a 98% chance of winning a majority. Earlier today, prediction markets indicated that pro-crypto Pierre Poilievre is likely to become Canada's next Prime Minister.
Prediction markets show pro-crypto Pierre Poilievre is likely to become Canada's next Prime Minister
According to The Block, after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on Monday, prediction market users forecast an 89% probability that pro-crypto politician and leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, will be elected as Canada's next Prime Minister. In 2022, Poilievre revealed that he held personal shares in Purpose Bitcoin, a Canadian-based cryptocurrency-focused exchange-traded fund, and advocated for individuals to have the option to invest in Bitcoin.
Up to 20 "strategic Bitcoin reserve" bills will be proposed at the state level in the U.S.
Satoshi Action Fund co-founder Dennis Porter stated on platform X that up to 20 "strategic Bitcoin reserve" bills will be proposed at the state level in the U.S.—there may be multiple bills within the same state—as legislators are fiercely competing to be the first in history. The vast majority of these bills will be based on the SBR (Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) model proposed by the Satoshi Action Fund. Previously, Porter indicated that the 14th state in the U.S. is now preparing to introduce "strategic Bitcoin reserve" legislation.
Calamos to launch a Bitcoin ETF with downside protection on January 22
According to Crypto.news, Calamos Investments is launching a Bitcoin ETF with 100% downside protection. According to the company's announcement, this ETF, named CBOJ, will debut on January 22 at the Chicago Board Options Exchange, aiming to address Bitcoin's volatility while providing growth potential. The protection is achieved by combining U.S. Treasury bonds with options linked to the CBOE Bitcoin U.S. ETF index. This structure provides a regulated and transparent way to gain exposure to Bitcoin while minimizing risk.
Anti-crypto Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr resigns
According to Beincrypto, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr announced today that he will resign from his position. Barr will no longer serve as the third-ranking member of the Federal Reserve Board but intends to remain at the Fed until further notice. He is widely regarded as one of the key factors behind U.S. banks' failure to engage in cryptocurrency and related services. According to a recent press release, his resignation will take effect on February 28 or after his successor is confirmed. However, even if a new regulatory vice chair is found quickly, Barr will continue to stay on the Federal Reserve Board. His term was originally set to end naturally in 2032. However, this may represent a significant opportunity for cryptocurrency regulation. He stated, "It has been an honor to serve as the Vice Chair for Supervision of the Federal Reserve Board. The controversy surrounding this position may distract us from our mission. In the current environment, I believe serving the American people from the Board position would be more effective." In 2023, Barr led the crackdown on stablecoins and expressed a desire to "exclude cryptocurrencies from the banking sector."
Gemini agrees to pay $5 million to settle U.S. CFTC lawsuit
According to Bloomberg, the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini Trust Co., founded by the Winklevoss twins, has agreed to pay $5 million to settle a lawsuit filed by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The lawsuit alleged that Gemini misled derivatives regulators when attempting to launch the first U.S.-regulated Bitcoin futures contract. On Monday, documents signed by both parties disclosed this settlement agreement, thus avoiding a trial set to begin on January 21 (the day after Trump's second inauguration as U.S. President). Gemini neither admitted nor denied liability in this case. In 2022, the CFTC sued Gemini in Manhattan federal court, accusing the exchange of making false and misleading statements about how to prevent Bitcoin price manipulation. On Monday, U.S. District Judge Alvin Hellerstein approved the settlement agreement. Last November, Judge Hellerstein denied Gemini's request, ruling that a jury must determine whether 32 statements made by Gemini executives to regulators were misleading. Gemini still faces a lawsuit filed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which accuses the exchange and cryptocurrency lending company Genesis Global Capital of illegally raising billions of dollars in crypto assets from investors through the so-called Gemini Earn program. In February of this year, Gemini agreed to return at least $1.1 billion to customers as part of another settlement reached with New York regulators.
AI
Swarms breaks through $0.6, up 76.1% in 24 hours
According to GMGN.AI data, the Solana ecosystem AI project Swarms has broken through $0.6, rising 76.1% in 24 hours, setting a new all-time high, currently priced at $0.6008457, with a market cap exceeding $600 million.
MAX breaks through $0.11, up 125.3% in 24 hours
According to GMGN.AI data, the Solana ecosystem AI Meme project MAX has broken through $0.11, setting a new all-time high, up 125.3% in 24 hours, currently priced at $0.1111, with a peak of $0.116, and a market cap exceeding $100 million.
NVIDIA announces the launch of "world foundational model" NVIDIA Cosmos
According to Caixin, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang announced the launch of NVIDIA Cosmos, a foundational model designed to understand the real world. The Cosmos model can accept prompts in text, images, or videos to generate virtual world states, serving unique video output needs for autonomous driving and robotics applications. Developers can leverage Cosmos to generate AI feedback for reinforcement learning, improving strategy models and testing performance in different scenarios. Earlier today, NVIDIA launched a consumer-grade GPU based on the Blackwell architecture, opening a new world of AI computer graphics.
According to Financial Street, NVIDIA (NVDA.US) today released its cutting-edge consumer-grade GPU for gamers, creators, and developers—the GeForce RTX(TM) 50 series desktop and laptop GPUs. Supported by NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture, fifth-generation Tensor Cores, and fourth-generation RT Cores, the GeForce RTX 50 series has made breakthroughs in AI-driven rendering, including neural shaders, digital human technology, geometry, and lighting. The GeForce RTX 5090 GPU is the fastest GeForce RTX GPU to date, featuring 92 billion transistors and providing over 33.52 trillion AI operations per second (TOPS) in computing power. Innovations in the Blackwell architecture and DLSS 4 mean that the performance of the GeForce RTX 5090 GPU is twice that of the GeForce RTX 4090 GPU.
Virtuals Protocol and Sovrun are forming a joint venture called ReadyGamer
According to official news, Virtuals Protocol and Sovrun are forming a joint venture named "ReadyGamer," focusing on the integration of AI and gaming.
Financing/Mergers and Acquisitions
The European branch of FTX, FTX EU, which went bankrupt, has been acquired by Backpack Exchange for $32.7 million. FTX EU previously held a MiFID II license issued by the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC). Backpack Exchange CEO Armani Ferrante stated that the company plans to become the only regulated perpetual contract provider in Europe and has submitted a MiCA notification, expecting to launch in the first quarter of 2025. Additionally, Backpack plans to launch a full suite of crypto derivatives services, prioritizing regulated perpetual futures products and committing to prioritize the return of FTX EU customer funds. Currently, several exchanges, including Coinbase and Bitstamp, have obtained MiFID II licenses. It is reported that the founding team of Backpack previously participated in the construction of the Solana ecosystem and successfully launched wallet and NFT businesses, completing $17 million in financing last year.
SUI ecosystem project Wave completes seed round financing, led by KuCoin Labs
The SUI ecosystem project Wave officially announced that its seed round financing completed in November 2024 was led by KuCoin Labs, with other investors including the SUI Foundation, Web3Port Foundation, and Comma3 Ventures. The amount of financing has not been disclosed. The Wave team stated that the project will enter a new phase, with more innovations to come. Wave currently has over 4 million on-chain users, with over 600,000 monthly active users. Its products include the Telegram-based trading tool Wave Trading, an incubation platform supporting quality early projects in the SUI ecosystem called Wave Pad, and DeFi and GameFi-related products such as Wave Staking and Lucky Wheel, providing users with a one-stop experience for trading, airdrops, investments, and gaming.
Project Updates
Binance to launch COOKIE, ALCH, and SWARMS perpetual contracts, supporting up to 75x leverage
Binance announced the launch of three new USDT perpetual contracts, including COOKIE/USDT, ALCH/USDT, and SWARMS/USDT, supporting up to 75x leverage. The launch times are set for January 7 at 19:30, 19:45, and 20:15 Beijing time.
Upbit to support Sonic SVM (SONIC) trading in KRW, BTC, and USDT
Upbit announced that it will add trading support for the digital asset SONIC (Sonic SVM) in KRW, BTC, and USDT. The deposit support for SONIC, based on the Solana network, is scheduled to start at 20:00 local time on January 7, with trading support times to be announced separately.
Binance Alpha adds HAT, AIXCB, and NEUR
The official page shows that Binance Alpha has announced a new batch of project listings, including HAT, AIXCB, and NEUR. Here are the project introductions: HAT: Top Hat is a platform for issuing AI agents on the Solana chain; AIXCB: aixCB Capital is a community-supported, AI-driven venture capital project; NEUR: Neur is an open-source full-stack application that integrates LLM models and blockchain technology.
Reddit Collectible Avatars product lead resigns, raising concerns among platform users
According to Cointelegraph, holders of Reddit Collectible Avatars (RCA) NFTs expressed concerns about the future of the product after learning that the project lead has confirmed their departure from the social media company. Bianca Wyler, the project lead for Reddit Collectible Avatars, stated on LinkedIn, "My journey at Reddit has come to an end. While I am saddened by this transition, I am incredibly proud of what I accomplished during that time." Some Reddit users noticed that Wyler's recent comments on her Reddit account had been deleted, raising further concerns that her seemingly sudden departure might signal upcoming adjustments to the avatar project by the social platform. In an interview, Wyler revealed that her departure reflects the natural transition of the social media company as it explores new technologies and adjusts priorities. While uncertain about the direction of the RCA project, she believes Reddit will continue to benefit the community. RCA was launched in July 2022 and was promoted as limited-edition artwork created in collaboration with independent creators. According to Dune Analytics, the total number of holders of these NFTs has exceeded 33.5 million. Since peaking at the end of 2022, the sales volume of these NFTs has struggled to keep up, with monthly secondary market trading volumes hovering around $100,000 in the last three months of 2024, and trading volumes have also declined since peaking in 2022.
Solana Mobile's second phone, Solana Seeker, expected to launch in mid-2025
According to Blockworks, Solana Mobile's second phone, Solana Seeker, is expected to launch in mid-2025. As of last October, Solana Mobile General Manager Emmett Hollyer stated that the Seeker is priced at $500 and has received 145,000 pre-orders.
Solana Foundation proposes adding a new hash type to enhance account state efficiency and security
The Solana Foundation has initiated the SIMD-0215 proposal, aimed at expanding Solana's infrastructure to billions of user accounts. This proposal adds a new hash called "Accounts Lattice Hash." It is reported that the "Accounts Lattice Hash" uses homomorphic hashing to maintain the hash of the entire account state, allowing for quick updates while being secure, enabling each block to contain the hash of all accounts, not just those changed in that block, and removing the Epoch Accounts Hash.
Babylon to Launch Phase Two Testnet on January 8
According to official news, the Bitcoin staking protocol Babylon announced that it will launch the second phase of its testnet on January 8. Block production for the second phase will begin at 9:00 AM UTC (5:00 PM Beijing time), and the staking network application will go live at 10:00 AM UTC (6:00 PM Beijing time). This phase will focus on testing the migration registration of the first phase Signet Bitcoin staking, as well as interactions with various protocol participants, including Bitcoin stakers, finality providers, validators, and Liquid staking protocols. The testnet supports permissionless smart contract deployment, with a single staking limit of 0.0005-350 Signet BTC and an unbinding period of approximately 16-17 hours (100 Bitcoin blocks). The project is open for global testing but restricts participation from users in the United States, Canada, Australia, and mainland China.
Opinions
Santiment: Bitcoin May Be Gradually Decoupling from Global Stock Market Trends, a Bullish Signal
Crypto market research firm Santiment posted on the X platform, noting that since Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States two months ago, the correlation between cryptocurrencies and stocks has remained high. However, today, we observe that Bitcoin is showing a rising trend relative to the S&P 500 index (based on its usual volatility range). For most of the past three years, the image of cryptocurrencies in the minds of most community members has gradually shifted to that of "high-leverage tech stocks." However, signs from early 2025 indicate that Bitcoin may be gradually decoupling from the conventional volatility trajectory of the global stock market. Historically, the crypto market tends to thrive during periods of low or no correlation with the stock market, often leading to the most significant bull markets. If Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can achieve strong growth in January without relying on the S&P 500 index, it would be a strong signal indicating a greater likelihood of reaching new all-time highs.
Ripple CEO: The Company's Previous Valuation of $11 Billion is "Severely Outdated"
According to Coingape, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced that with the rise in XRP prices and the growing demand for Ripple's blockchain solutions, the company's previous valuation of $11 billion is "severely outdated." In an interview, he mentioned that the value of XRP held by Ripple has exceeded $100 billion, becoming a key factor in reshaping the company's valuation outlook. Ripple's last valuation of $11 billion was in early 2024 when the company repurchased $300 million worth of stock. Garlinghouse pointed out that compared to crypto-related companies like MicroStrategy, Ripple's trading price in the private market is far below its net asset value. He stated, "The value of XRP we hold has exceeded $100 billion, while MicroStrategy's trading price is three times its net asset value, yet Ripple has been undervalued." In the interview, Garlinghouse reiterated the company's focus on the B2B sector, including banks, payment providers, and enterprises, where Ripple offers solutions such as custody and cross-border payments. Garlinghouse also emphasized that its stablecoin RLUSD will utilize XRP rather than replace it, thereby enhancing its liquidity and opening up more possibilities for utilizing Ripple's decentralized exchange (DEX) and automated market maker (AMM) features. Ripple's growth has also benefited from changes in the legal environment. Garlinghouse believes that the departure of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and new regulatory clarity from the government represent a "turning point" for Ripple. He stated, "The winds have changed; although 95% of our clients are outside the U.S., I expect interest from the U.S. to return in the coming months."
Arthur Hayes: The Crypto Market May Peak in Mid-March, Followed by a Severe Correction
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes explained in his latest blog post why he believes the crypto market will peak in mid-March, followed by a severe correction. The article states that in the third quarter of 2022, when the Federal Reserve's reverse repo tool peaked, Bitcoin hit its bottom; Yellen adjusted the bond strategy, withdrawing over $2 trillion from RRP, injecting liquidity into the market and driving up cryptocurrencies and stocks. In the first quarter of 2025, the market will focus on whether dollar liquidity can offset the slow implementation of Trump's policies. If liquidity is sufficient, increasing risk exposure will be a safe choice. First, the article discusses the Federal Reserve, which is a secondary consideration in this analysis. It then discusses how the U.S. Treasury will respond to the debt ceiling. The focus is on how the Treasury will handle the debt ceiling. If politicians hesitate, the Treasury may inject liquidity from the General Account (TGA), creating a positive atmosphere for cryptocurrencies. The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening policy continues, but the RRP scale is nearly zero, and the RRP interest rate has been lowered to reduce its attractiveness. This move aims to boost demand for U.S. Treasury bonds and lay the groundwork for stopping QT and other policies. Yellen revealed that the Treasury expects to take "extraordinary measures" to raise funds in mid-January. When will politicians agree to raise the debt ceiling? This will test Trump's support. It is expected that by May to June, the Treasury's General Account (TGA) balance will be exhausted, and the market may react in advance. By the end of the first quarter, the total dollar liquidity from the Federal Reserve and the Treasury is expected to be $612 billion. As the risk of default and shutdown approaches, an agreement to raise the debt ceiling will be reached, the Treasury will resume borrowing and replenish the TGA, leading to a reduction in liquidity. After the April 15 tax deadline, the government's financial situation will improve, and liquidity will also decline. If the TGA balance dominates cryptocurrency prices, the market may reach a peak by the end of the first quarter, followed by a decline. Yellen lowered the interest rate for issuing short-term Treasury bills, causing Powell's strategy of tightening financial conditions to combat inflation to fail. Although Trump's team may perform poorly in cryptocurrency and corporate legislation, a positive dollar liquidity environment may offset this impact. Hayes suggests, "Investors should sell in the late first quarter and wait for liquidity conditions to improve in the third quarter. As the Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom, I recommend risk-takers shift to aggressive mode and venture into the decentralized science (DeSci) altcoin space. Maelstrom has purchased BIO, VITA, ATH, GROW, PSY, CRYO, and NEURON. If all goes well, I will reduce baseline positions in March."
Important Data
NFT Project Mad Lads Surges 24% Temporarily, Floor Price Currently at 84.2 SOL
Possibly influenced by "Backpack Exchange's $32.7 million acquisition of FTX EU," the NFT project Mad Lads surged 24% temporarily, with a current floor price of 84.2 SOL. Earlier today, Backpack Exchange announced the acquisition of FTX EU for $32.7 million, planning to promote regulated crypto derivatives in Europe.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a trader has achieved a win rate of 89.07% in the last 30 days. This trader discovered $ai16z early on October 25, 2024, purchasing 9.16 million $ai16z for only 18 $SOL (approximately $3,000). They have since sold 1.32 million, making a profit of $1.71 million, and still hold 7.85 million (worth $17.26 million), with total profits reaching $19 million and a return rate of 6,400%. Additionally, they invested $12,200 in $Fartcoin when its market cap was only $83,000, purchasing 17.31 million coins, and have sold 6.71 million for a profit of $5.41 million, currently holding 10.6 million (worth $12.83 million), with total profits exceeding $18 million and a return rate of 1,490%. In the past 24 hours, this trader has also purchased various low market cap tokens, including $eef, $DEAL, $GG, $SXBT, $FARTOLOGY, and $TBOO. Their latest large holding is $OPAIUM, with an investment of 400 $SOL (approximately $86,000).
According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (January 6, Eastern Time), the total net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs was $987 million. Yesterday, Grayscale's ETF GBTC saw a net inflow of $73.79 million, with a historical net outflow of $21.446 billion. Grayscale's Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF BTC had a net inflow of $75.23 million yesterday, with a historical total net inflow of $924 million. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest net inflow yesterday was Fidelity's ETF FBTC, with a net inflow of $370 million, bringing its historical total net inflow to $12.485 billion. The second highest was BlackRock's ETF IBIT, with a net inflow of $209 million, bringing its historical total net inflow to $37.378 billion. As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $116.667 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (market cap relative to total Bitcoin market cap) of 5.77%, and a historical cumulative net inflow of $36.896 billion.
"SWARMS & ZEILGO Top User" Bought PRISM for 203.92 SOL Last Night
According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, the "SWARMS & ZEILGO top user" spent 203.92 SOL last night to buy the new token PRISM, which has now become their 5th largest asset; their total assets amount to $33.43 million, with a floating profit of $27.07 million from SWARMS alone. Their cost for PRISM was $0.007413 (current price $0.008265), and it has been transferred from the small transaction address EHB8Q…FjNay to the top address. As of now, their holdings are as follows: SWARMS: TOP1 holding address, floating profit of $27.07 million; MCS: TOP3 holding address; ZAILGO: TOP1 holding address, ranking up one position; SPORES: TOP2 holding address; PRISM: TOP11 holding address.
According to Spot On Chain monitoring, in the past 14 hours, two whales/institutions transferred 16.38 million ENA (approximately $19.4 million) to CEX. A multi-signature address starting with 0xc69 deposited 10 million ENA (approximately $11.9 million) to Bybit 13 hours ago and still holds 124.7 million ENA (about $144 million), most of which is staked. This multi-signature address frequently sold ENA before the price drop and appears to share the same Bybit deposit address as Arthur Hayes (co-founder of BitMEX). Six hours ago, Galaxy Digital deposited 6.38 million ENA (approximately $7.49 million) to Binance at a price of $1.173. They withdrew 10.9 million ENA from Binance at a price of $0.925 on December 5, 2024, and currently still hold 4.45 million ENA (approximately $5.17 million), with an expected total profit of $2.64 million (+26%).
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