The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui talking about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smokescreens.

Finally, we see signs of a market recovery and no longer worry about the market's decline, suffering from unwarranted disasters. Let's start with the trend; we are getting closer to Trump's entry, with only half a month left. For those wanting to short, it is becoming increasingly dangerous. Although there is still some room for shorts to go down, I hope everyone can try to abandon the desire to enter short positions. With the upcoming impact of the Spring Festival holiday, many friends are afraid of a market reversal during the holiday. Lao Cui will also talk about the Spring Festival, a traditional holiday that has little impact on the financial market, only having a certain effect on foreign trade. The strength of the dollar may ease to some extent as foreign trade settlements conclude, so don't think it can return to around 6.5. The dollar at the 7 mark has basically stabilized, which is crucial for the crypto market. The market's decline and the rise in U.S. dollar prices have somewhat compensated for losses, which is a positive for us. The fluctuations around the Spring Festival will definitely focus on growth, and the short market everyone is waiting for will basically end before the adjustment depth before Trump takes office.

Including the recent performance of U.S. stocks and the trends of gold and the dollar, they are mainly in a correction phase, especially the performance of U.S. stocks. The further they go down, the more beneficial it is for us. As long as the performance of U.S. stocks is unsatisfactory, the possibility of interest rate cuts will increase. The dot plot shows that there will only be two rate cuts this year, but as long as the economic performance in the first half of the year is not strong, there is still a great possibility of increasing the probability of rate cuts. Even if there are two rate cuts this year, there will be two more to make up for it in 2026. Overall, the financial market may maintain a stable growth state before next year. This month, some data will be released, and everyone can pay attention, including the U.S. non-farm payrolls and employment population issues. The data from the first six months will basically determine whether rate cuts will come later. We cannot rule out that the dot plot is a smokescreen released by the U.S., after all, this year will be an important time for the U.S. to compete for capital with us. The better the data, the more capital may favor the U.S. stock market. If there are fans studying or working in the U.S., feel free to discuss with Lao Cui.

I believe many friends have recently noticed the financial market in Singapore, and many are asking Lao Cui whether Singapore will replace Hong Kong as Asia's blockchain financial center. Coupled with recent legal issues in Hong Kong, which have led to clear regulations for users in the crypto space to withdraw funds back to the mainland, many large holders have developed a strong fear of capital outflows. Lao Cui needs to interpret that the current attitude of the mainland towards blockchain shows signs of gradual relaxation, but it will not be fully opened. From the high-level attitude towards blockchain this year, it is clear that they aim to protect crypto assets. Trading domestically is not illegal; only withdrawals may touch legal issues. The decisions in Hong Kong are definitely not aimed at normal trading by crypto users; they are mainly about capital outflow issues. As long as you do not touch the red line of capital outflow, there should not be too many problems. Most cases belong to civil disputes. Can everyone understand the meaning of this? After the U.S., it is very likely that Hong Kong will be used as a pilot to gradually test the opening of crypto trading, but this premise must be under the condition of controlling the capital outflow situation. How will this be done? Lao Cui's intelligence is obviously not as good as the wisdom of the high-level officials, so I can only regard this development as a hope to imagine.

Returning to the issue of updating articles, due to the previous prediction of entering around 92,000, the current market is still operating within our predictions, so the efficiency of updates will gradually decrease. Including the users in my hands, they have recently been the main focus, and the phased entry can come to an end. Today, I finally have time to reassess the market with everyone. The growth before and after Trump's entry is extremely crucial. Not only is Lao Cui laying out low positions, but all institutions are also waiting for this round of opportunities. The growth before Trump takes office is merely to let everyone see positions and feel intimidated, and even a wave of downward probing on the same day is a very routine operation. Faced with such a consumption of human nature, do you really have the courage to enter? Of course, after this round of growth, there will definitely be opportunities for everyone to enter, but this opportunity may only come once before Trump takes office. If you can seize it, you can ride the fast track of this bull market. Users who have not entered need not worry; the fluctuations throughout this year will provide opportunities for everyone to enter, whether it is the emergence of U.S. strategies or tax issues, all will impact the crypto space, including the arrival of interest rate cuts, which are basically positive. The main theme this year is that everyone can bottom out in the spot market. This time's rise still has room for decline, and the appearance of such a market, even with a loss of one or two thousand points, is normal. As long as it touches around ninety thousand, entering should not be a big problem, and it is estimated that there will be another opportunity for adjustment later.

Regarding the comparison between Ethereum and Bitcoin, the current trend will definitely be dominated by Bitcoin. Whether it is institutional buying or retail choices, the highest growth potential is Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum. If you view this market from an investment perspective, these two cryptocurrencies are the best options available. The previously mentioned BNB, platform tokens are choices before the market starts, and after the bull market starts, the proportion of this type will definitely be reduced. When Lao Cui recommended it, it was still over 400, and around 700, I advised everyone to exit. The yield for those holding above 700 will significantly decline. To give a simple example, if BNB has the potential to break 1000, then Bitcoin could reach around 150,000. Comparing the two, the yield of Bitcoin is definitely higher. For users with small capital, seeking stability is suitable for this type of cryptocurrency, including the growth of small coins like SOL, which can be invested in small amounts but not in large amounts. Don't think that 2024 is the peak for Bitcoin; the changes in 2025 are very likely to see a market that could surpass gold in history. The fluctuations in 2025 will definitely exceed those in 2024, as can be judged from the recent capital flow. The current stock of funds in the crypto space is sufficient to pull Bitcoin to a higher dimension. Why has it not grown yet? It is actually waiting for Trump's signal.

Everyone should be clear that Trump's entry is to legitimize Bitcoin, and this compliance will certainly require the crypto space to compromise certain interests. Whether it is data transparency or basic technical aspects, this is a reverse operation for the original intention of the crypto space. When decentralization is no longer decentralized, the necessity of the crypto space may not necessarily be beneficial. It is also possible that alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin may emerge, so every rule set by Trump is extremely important. Whether it is aimed at Bitcoin or USDT, these belong to domestic disputes, and I won't delve into them. The year 2025 is a crucial period for the fate of the crypto space, and everyone must seize the entire year's time. This statement has been reminded too many times; Lao Cui truly hopes that everyone can take this matter seriously. The positions of Bitcoin and Ethereum, in the short term, are indeed at high points, but from the perspective of spot trading, if everyone can take a six-month timeline, the current position is still a good entry point. 120,000 is basically not a strong pressure at a high position, and breaking through it will not be too difficult. For users in the contract space, just wait to bottom out; the closer it gets to ninety thousand, the safer it is. As long as the market does not reverse, Lao Cui's update frequency will still decrease, and the main focus will still be on the users in hand. If anyone has questions, feel free to ask Lao Cui; real-time communication is still more important, as it involves everyone's own assets.

At the end of the article, let's talk about the recent doubts about balance sheet reduction. Balance sheet reduction will definitely lead to a market decline. From the end of December to early January, the entire U.S. stock and Bitcoin market have been mainly declining. This includes the impact of interest rate cuts, the impact of balance sheet reduction, foreign trade and foreign exchange settlements, and other traditional financial factors, which have forced institutions in the crypto space to reassess this market. From the current performance, it seems that the market has opened an upward channel, and the high points are getting higher, with the overall impact gradually dissipating. Everyone needs to remind themselves that the benefits brought by interest rate cuts will definitely have a time lag, and the gathering of funds also requires time to replenish. The probability of market growth later, as long as there are no major factors affecting it, will basically aim for higher points. The current trend can only be judged by short-term repairs. There are only fifteen days left until Trump's entry, and the real market is about to arrive. The impact of balance sheet reduction has already been significant and will stop. Those with substantial capital can consider this! Regarding the exchange rate issue, I won't discuss it, just give you the result: the depreciation of CNY will continue, and those holding U.S. dollars can still hold for a while!

Original article created by WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's Message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even ten steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation and strategizes for the big picture, not focusing on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent entrapment.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!

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