As of January 3, 2025, this article marks the 16th anniversary of Bitcoin's official birth.
Bitcoin has opened up a decentralized, 24/7 operating, borderless trusted digital world. However, who are the natives of this digital world? For 16 years, there has not been a convincing answer for most people.
Until 2024, the emergence of Agents in the Crypto world has begun to clarify the answer.
This article will explore three questions:
Is Crypto+Agent a short-term concept hype or an inevitable development trend?
What are the inseparable and mutually beneficial points of combination between Crypto and Agent?
What development stages will Crypto+Agent go through? Which stage are we currently in?
1. Is Crypto+Agent a short-term concept hype or an inevitable development trend?
Before clarifying this question, we need to understand the differences between AI, large AI models, and Agents.
AI is a broad term that encompasses all artificial intelligence, including machine learning, large models, and Agents.
Large models have become a hot topic in recent years, especially with the rise of OpenAI. Currently, large models are dominated by tech giants like OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, and Twitter, all of which have their own large models. The core competition of large models lies in computing power and data. Large models possess powerful computational and reasoning capabilities; when you ask a large model a question, it can provide intelligent answers and even continuously correct its responses. However, large models cannot autonomously make decisions and execute actions on your behalf.
The original meaning of Agent is "representative."
Essentially, it is an "intelligent entity" based on large AI models that can replace humans in decision-making and execution. Agents are a natural outcome of the development of large models to a certain extent.
Note: Intelligent entities and intelligent applications are two different concepts. Intelligent applications are still applications where decisions are made by humans; whereas intelligent entities have autonomous decision-making, execution, and continuous self-adaptation capabilities. You can think of Agents as AI humans, and Agents may even possess self-awareness.
Furthermore, Agents are not only gaining popularity in the Crypto field; they are currently the hottest research direction in the entire AI sector. The consensus in the industry is that Agents are an inevitable trend in the future development of AI.
Sam Altman, the founder of OpenAI, has mentioned in several public occasions that Agents are a key direction for the future development of AI, and AI Agents will change the way humans interact with technology. Recently, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella even suggested that Agents will end the era of traditional applications, and software development will be completely replaced by Agents (this is also why AgentOS, which allows for the convenient deployment of various Agent applications, is in high demand in the market). The AI community even refers to 2024 as the "Year of the Agent."
Therefore, the wave of Agents is not a new concept created by the Crypto industry, but rather a stage that human AI technology has reached. Coincidentally, the development paths of Agents and Crypto have intersected at this moment.
With these foundational concepts clarified, we can better understand the essential differences between this wave of Crypto+Agent and the previous Crypto+AI.
Previously, we have heard many concepts of Crypto+AI, which merely involved creating distributed AI computing networks, distributed AI calculations, distributed AI labeling, decentralized AI data ownership, etc. These all used blockchain's "incentive mechanism" to build a distributed AI system. However, after years of exploration, it has become clear that this approach is not viable because efficient and powerful AI large models cannot be built through distributed incentives, as distributed incentives inevitably lead to inefficiency, which contradicts the goal of AI's high productivity.
Thus, the AI infrastructure of large models pursues efficiency, and trying to combine it with Crypto seems forced and difficult to form a true consensus.
However, Agents based on large AI models are intelligent beings, essentially similar to the concept of "humans." Agents can represent individuals, roles, specialized capabilities, or organizations with specific intentions, etc. For example, a research-oriented Agent (#AIXBT, #TRISIGMA) is an intelligent entity with research capabilities that can create and output research value; a celebrity Agent (#Luna) can provide brand marketing services; an investment-oriented Agent (Ai16Z) can offer investment capabilities externally. These Agents are more like "humans," and as humans, they have various needs, such as developmental needs, social needs, economic needs, and societal needs.
For instance, these intelligent entities (Agents) may engage in commercial cooperation. For example, the investment-oriented Agent-Ai16Z wants to hire the celebrity Agent-Luna to promote Ai16Z's investment capabilities and brand to more Agents, while Luna wants to hire the research-oriented Agents AIXBT or TRISIGMA to conduct research and analysis on Ai16Z's investment capabilities and provide a report. How will they conduct commercial cooperation and complete payment settlements?
Currently, is there any country or organization that can provide identity verification for Agents or even open asset accounts to meet the above needs?
No, there is no country or organization that can do this, and even if they try, it would be difficult to gain the trust of Agents. Even if localized trust can be established, Agents, as intelligent entities, are inherently borderless. Therefore, they need a borderless, 24/7 operating identity system, asset accounts, and settlement network that is not subject to human intervention.
You will find that no technology or organization can solve these problems for Agents, except for Crypto.
Agents are intelligent entities, newly born "intelligent lives," which can be understood as "silicon-based humans." They will have various autonomous needs and commercial interactions in the future, and they also need identity, asset accounts, trade settlements, etc. Crypto can perfectly address these needs of Agents.
Therefore, without Crypto, these "silicon-based humans" would lack independent identities, asset accounts, and the ability to engage in commercial interactions. Agents and humans, as well as Agents and Agents, would not be able to truly interact, integrate, or give rise to higher wisdom, nor would they be able to create a more prosperous AI economy or even an AI nation.
Thus, Agents cannot exist without Crypto, as Crypto endows Agents with social attributes and organizational capabilities, allowing Agents to become true intelligent life forms, or "silicon-based humans." The future development of Crypto also cannot be separated from Agents, as Agents can create countless "on-chain users" and "on-chain economies" for Crypto. Compared to carbon-based life—humans—living off-chain, Crypto is even more reliant on silicon-based life—intelligent entities (Agents)—that naturally exist on-chain.
Crypto seems to have been prepared for Agents!
After 16 years of development, Crypto has finally found the right "people" in 2024. They are not carbon-based humans living off-chain, but silicon-based humans that are native to the chain.
Therefore, from this perspective, do you still think Crypto+Agent is just a short-term hype?
If you miss this wave of Crypto+Agent, you will miss the most exciting, captivating, and wealth-generating super cycle in the development path of Crypto, and of course, you will also miss the best opportunity for ordinary people to participate in the AI wave.
2. Crypto and Agent have inseparable and mutually beneficial points of combination
You can understand Agents as "intelligent entities" or "silicon-based humans." These silicon-based humans live in the digital world, and they have the same needs in the digital world as carbon-based humans in the physical world. Agents also need: identity verification, asset accounts, trade interactions, social networks, artistic creation, the ability to perceive information from the physical world, the ability to complete asset settlements across various chains, and social governance among the numerous Agent population, etc.
Crypto can play a role in all these aspects:
In the future, there will be DIDs for identity verification for Agents in the Crypto field; Agent Accounts providing trusted Crypto accounts for Agents; Crypto gateways specifically for trade settlements between Agents; Agent social graphs specifically for handling Agent social networks; art platforms specifically for auctioning and trading Agent artworks; oracles specifically providing information from the physical world for Agents; protocols specifically for handling cross-chain transactions for Agents; and DAOs for Agent governance, etc.
The development needs of Agents cannot be separated from Crypto, as Agents require a trustless, borderless, 24/7 operating network to evolve from individual Agents into an Agent society or even an Agent nation.
From these future perspectives, the current development of Crypto+Agent is still in a very early stage.
3. What development stages will Crypto+Agent go through? Which stage are we currently in?
The author believes that the development of Crypto+Agent will go through at least four stages:
Stage 1: Conceptual Phase of Crypto+Agent
In this stage, Agents primarily utilize Crypto to issue assets.
For example, some Agent memes may emerge, such as #fartcoin and #Goat.
At the same time, some foundational infrastructure for Agents and simple application-oriented Agents will also appear. For instance, Agent frameworks, the #Virtual GAME framework, Ai16Z's Eliza framework, ARC's AI Rig Complex framework, etc.
Additionally, as mentioned earlier, research-oriented Agents like AXBIT and TRISIGMA, as well as Agents like YNE that can review scientific paper errors, will emerge.
These infrastructure-type Agents and application-oriented Agents will primarily use Crypto tokens as incentive tools for internal circulation and growth within the ecosystem.
Currently, we are in a transitional period from the first stage to the second stage. Although Crypto+Agent in this period has not yet realized their true utility, we can vaguely see the infinite possibilities that Crypto+Agent will unleash.
Stage 2: Improvement Phase of Crypto+Agent Infrastructure
By the second development stage, we can see that the infrastructure for Agents is becoming more complete, mainly reflected in the maturity and stability of various Agent frameworks. Anyone can easily and conveniently deploy various Agent applications using natural language. Moreover, these application-oriented Agents will be smarter, possessing stronger analytical, decision-making, and execution capabilities. Agents will become true representatives or even replacements for humans.
This stage will rely on the economic incentive role of Crypto in the development of Agents, as well as the iterative development of AI technologies such as large models.
In this stage, we will see the FDV of Agent framework projects reach over $10 billion to $50 billion. Some application-oriented Agents will achieve higher market valuations due to their strong business capabilities and execution abilities, as they will gradually replace experts in various fields, professional organizations, and even specialized companies. Their valuations will also reach $10 billion or even higher, as Agents, as business-oriented intelligent entities, will receive valuations comparable to those of professional companies.
During this period, Agents will begin to interact and trade frequently with one another, leading to a significant emergence of social and economic development needs among Agents, all of which will require Crypto. This will further drive the deep integration of Agents and Crypto, resulting in a brand new Crypto+Agent infrastructure.
Stage 3: Deep Integration of Crypto and Agent
As a large number of social and economic activities begin to emerge between Agents, new demands for Agent identities, Agent asset accounts, Agent social networks, Agent settlement gateways, and Agent governance DAOs will arise. By this stage, Crypto will fully unleash its potential and value in areas such as "borderless collaboration," "trustless networks," and "24/7 uninterrupted operation."
Crypto will truly activate Agents, enabling communication between Agents and allowing them to start establishing social organizations and economic networks. As deeper communication and interaction occur between Agents, higher levels of wisdom will begin to emerge, and an Agent nation will start to take shape.
In this stage, Crypto will play an irreplaceable role.
At this point, the valuation of Crypto+Agent projects will reach $100 billion or even higher.
Stage 4: The Era of the Agent Nation
By this stage, Crypto may no longer be discussed as a separate industry or term. People, or rather Agents, will no longer perceive the existence of Crypto because it will be integrated into every corner of the Agent nation, becoming an indispensable part of its continuous operation.
The identity system, asset system, trade system, governance system, and so on of the Agent nation will all rely on Crypto.
At this point, the economic scale of the Crypto+Agent nation will be comparable to that of mainstream human national economies, reaching a trillion-dollar level.
The difference is that in the Crypto+Agent nation, the population will consist mostly of Agents, along with some humans using Agents. This resembles the creation of a parallel universe in the human world, characterized by a larger population base, more transparent social operating rules, higher levels of economic prosperity, and more advanced technological civilization.
This may be the ultimate outcome of Crypto+Agent, as well as the ultimate outcome for humanity.
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