Master Discusses Hot Topics:
A new week begins, and the weekend's market for Bitcoin really confirms the "weekend law." There was no turbulence, even a bit dull to the point of questioning life. From the data, the weekend liquidity was pitifully low.
The turnover rate is also at bear market levels, with short-term traders busy entering and exiting. Mid to long-term players are too lazy to move, fully immersed in the atmosphere of an early holiday.
However, upon closer examination of the data, the Master found that the weekend's turnover rate is almost catching up to the period before last year's election. At that time, the situation improved significantly after the election, but now it has returned to old ways. So, what does this indicate?
It indicates that real players are simply not interested in the current prices. They have more confidence in the future market; otherwise, why would almost all the coins on the exchange be withdrawn? This tells us that we are still in a holiday market, with the main players playing dead while small traders jump around aimlessly.
Next, let's discuss some details; there are a few noteworthy things. One is that today the U.S. Congress will officially certify Trump's election (we won't discuss parallel world settings), and another is that the 20th of this month is the official inauguration day for the president.
Historically, during this period, mid to long-term players should not blindly short. In election years, the market at the beginning and end of the year is usually mild; even in a bear market, the first and fourth quarters' first 70 days are often the comfort zone for the entire year. Don't chase highs blindly; wait patiently for opportunities.
Additionally, the non-farm payroll and unemployment rate data on the 10th of this week should be monitored to see if there will be any small stimulus. The Master estimates it will be just that, not expecting much impact.
Then there’s the ADP employment change on Wednesday night at 21:15, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes at 3:00 AM on Thursday (this might bring some volatility), and finally, the non-farm data on Friday night at 21:30.
Regarding the news mentioned by the Master, whether you are a short-term or mid to long-term player, the safest operation is to go long at low levels. When no direction exists, enter on pullbacks, with the price points being decisive.
If you must play both sides, you need to be quick from Wednesday to Friday, especially if there’s a drop on Thursday morning; then Friday night could see a significant rise. In the short term, the Bitcoin range of 92k-100k seems more like an adjustment, with limited downward space, so the Master personally expects it to continue pushing up after a volume reduction adjustment.
Master Looks at Trends:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance Level: 99400
Second Resistance Level: 100500
Support Levels Reference:
First Support Level: 98500
Second Support Level: 97500
Today's Suggestions:
Bitcoin has rebounded after finding support below and has broken through the short-term downward trend line, currently in an upward trend. The current rise has formed an ascending channel, thus maintaining the view of further rebounds. It is also necessary to observe whether the already broken trend line and resistance levels can form support, which will serve as the basis for operations.
The probability of testing 100K again has increased, but caution is needed for potential pullbacks due to profit-taking. It is recommended not to chase highs for now but to wait for opportunities when prices pull back.
If the first resistance level is broken, it will be an important signal of breaking the previous high, indicating that the key resistance level has been surpassed. Once 100K is broken, Bitcoin is likely to see a rapid rise due to bullish sentiment in the short term.
If the 99.4K test fails, a pullback may occur in the short term. In this case, the 20-day and 60-day moving averages and 97.5K can be considered as phased key support targets, looking for ultra-short-term entry opportunities during the pullback.
The current psychological resistance level of 100K is right in front of us; it is recommended to observe whether the lows continue to rise within sufficient pullback areas, maintaining rebound expectations. If the lows are broken, the testing time for 100K may be delayed. If Bitcoin stabilizes above yesterday's high of 98.5K, the bullish expectation can continue during the day.
1.6 Master’s Band Trading Setup:
Long Entry Reference: Light long positions in the 98000-97800 range; if it pulls back to the 97500-97200 range, go long directly. Target: 98800-99400-99800
Short Entry Reference: Not applicable for now
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