Starting from manufacturing

CN
Lanli
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2 days ago

From manufacturing to branding, then to software/internet, and finally to finance, overall, it is a process of moving from the real economy to the virtual economy. In this process, for example, the gross profit margin of the manufacturing industry is 20%, the gross profit margin of brands is 50% (Coca-Cola, Nike), the gross profit margin of internet software can reach over 60% (Tencent Games, Baidu Search), and the gross profit margin in finance can reach 80%-90% (US dollars, US Treasury bonds).

In this view, for capitalist countries, moving from the real to the virtual economy is an inevitable trend, as capital seeks profit and will inevitably move towards high-profit industries while shedding low-profit ones.

However, this does not mean that you cannot or should not engage in the virtual economy. It is like how China's manufacturing industry was once at the low end, exchanging countless textiles for a Boeing airplane; if you only focus on the low end, you are essentially working for others.

The question here is how to achieve "both" … China has a unique advantage with its large population. Currently, with an urbanization rate of just 66%, manufacturing accounts for 30%. As the urbanization process gradually approaches 80% (the threshold for developed countries), China's ultimate manufacturing share is estimated to be around a staggering 50%, which may represent the peak of Chinese manufacturing, after which it will gradually decline.

But how can we avoid the "American disease" and the "British disease" in the future? The shift from the real to the virtual economy is a trend that cannot be avoided, as you cannot continuously suppress workers' wages. Capital also seeks higher returns. However, China may fare better than the United States because of its large population, which will allow for a much longer retention time in manufacturing. Additionally, by recognizing the problems faced by the United States, we must think about how to solve them.

There are solutions, which involve expanding territory and continuously increasing the population, rather than using the colonial models of Britain and America.

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