Author: defioasis

Editor: Colin Wu

2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development since DeFi Summer, with narrative-driven investment opportunities emerging continuously on-chain. According to the author’s observations, as the concept of "everything can be a Meme" becomes more ingrained and the rapid asset issuance of Pump Fun takes center stage, Memes can start from zero, and (without being listed on top CEXs) the market cap limit for on-chain space is approximately $1 billion. For ordinary users, there is already sufficient profit space on-chain, while top CEXs have become the final link for on-chain investment exits. Due to escalating conflicts between VCCoin and the community, new assets listed on top CEXs often perform poorly; meanwhile, older coins that have already been listed on top CEXs mostly struggle, with teams lacking motivation or unable to keep up with market changes, remaining in a state of waiting for unlocks.

This article is primarily based on predictions regarding on-chain trading and investment, focusing on segmented on-chain tracks. It serves merely as the author's superficial predictions and should not be considered as any investment advice, but rather as food for thought.

1. DEX/CEX monthly Vol ratio will exceed 20% for the first time

According to data from The Block, DEX trading volume is expected to exceed $320 billion in December 2024, setting a record for the highest monthly volume, with a year-on-year growth of over 200%; the DEX/CEX ratio in December 2024 is projected to reach 11.64%, an increase from 9.55% in December 2023, with the monthly trading volume ratio peaking at 13.86%. As Web3 wallets and other on-chain tools, primarily led by CEXs, continue to optimize, this may accelerate the adoption of on-chain trading; the popularity of the Meme track and the wealth effect are among the key factors driving users to migrate from CEXs to DEXs.

2. AI Agents/AI Meme total market cap will exceed that of peak NFTs, with at least one AI Agents token surpassing $10 billion in market cap

The combination of AI Agents and tokenization is the fastest-growing narrative in the Crypto market in the second half of 2024, with various types of AI Agents emerging rapidly. From the initial chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) opening the Pandora's box of AI Agents, to the ai16z DAO and the Shaw team behind it creating the Eliza framework for one-click deployment of AI Agents and their tokens based on large language models, all of this has happened in just a few months.

Currently, there are at least several frameworks in development and operation, including ai16z - Eliza, Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro - Zerepy, and Dolion Framework. Notably, ai16z - Eliza and Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework have formed a relatively strong ecological moat, with various sub-tokens of AI Agents rapidly being introduced to the market.

Data from CoinGecko shows that the total market cap of AI Agents-related tokens has reached $12 billion, with Virtuals Protocol's VIRTUAL acting as a trading pair token similar to SOL on the Solana network, alongside sub-tokens like AIXBT, GAME, and LUNA, driving the prosperity of the ecosystem and nurturing the VIRTUAL parent token, making it the highest market cap AI Agents-related token at $3.5 billion.

3. It is expected that 3-5 vertical tracks based on Pump Fun will emerge

Pump Fun has become one of the most profitable applications in Crypto this year as a Launchpad for rapidly deploying tokens at extremely low costs on the Solana network, with thousands of Memecoins launching daily. With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have begun to follow suit, launching similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the Tron network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Clanker based on Farcaster on the Base network.

Additionally, the Memecoin track is gradually expanding, with the notion that "everything can be a Meme" leading to increasingly strong segmented demands, evolving into vertical Pump Fun launch platforms, such as vvaifu focused on AI Agents and Pump Science focused on DeSci. AI Agents have already become a multi-billion dollar track, and DeSci is also showing potential with Binance's focus on DeSci and the listing of the representative protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, this reflects the demand for decentralized token issuance and rapid asset issuance based on different narratives and imaginations, and it is expected that more vertical launch platforms based on Pump Fun will evolve into more segmented tracks in the future.

4. At least 5 Base ecosystem native tokens will be listed on Binance spot

As a bellwether, Binance has listed perpetual contract trading for DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has yet to list any native spot tokens from the Base ecosystem. In terms of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effect, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecological effect of Base is more concentrated, represented by the Virtuals and Farcaster ecosystems, with the Virtuals ecosystem's market cap nearing $5 billion, positioning it as a leader in Crypto x AI Agents. The Base ecosystem may be the track with the highest odds for listing on top exchanges, and it is only a matter of time before the first Base ecosystem spot is listed on Binance.

As a public chain under the compliant exchange Coinbase, it relies on Coinbase Wallet to open up the fiat channel from Base - USDC to bank accounts. With the formal establishment of the Trump administration, if favorable policies for Crypto are implemented, Coinbase and Base may be the exchanges and networks that benefit the most from the dividends. Furthermore, with Base leader Jesse Pollak officially joining the Coinbase executive team in October to lead Coinbase Wallet, the importance of the Base network in Coinbase's strategic vision should further increase.

5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities reaching over $1 billion in market cap

Hyperliquid has significantly increased community engagement and user attention through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects. Currently, Hyperliquid's Arbitrum Bridge assets exceed $2 billion USDC, equivalent to a 15th-ranked exchange; the platform token HYPE's total market cap once exceeded $10 billion, with FDV surpassing $30 billion.

From the development path of CEXs, especially relatively young CEXs, most start with excellent performance and liquidity from contracts, but the true brand moat is formed by the wealth effect brought by exclusive spot trading. Hyperliquid's HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards introduce possibilities for exclusive asset inclusion, a capability that previous attempts to transition from contract to spot trading lacked. The HIP-1 standard allows tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity at issuance. In a situation where it is difficult and costly to list on top CEXs, launching through spot position auctions on Hyperliquid has become a good choice. Known projects that have completed auctions on Hyperliquid but have not officially launched include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki - Anime (ANIME).

Currently, the main market cap and trading volume of Hyperliquid's spot trading are concentrated in HYPE, with only 2 others exceeding $100 million in market cap. With HYPE's high market cap, driving up prices requires more funds; collaborating with some excellent exclusive projects to create the wealth effect of exclusive assets is clearly more cost-effective, and HYPE will ultimately benefit from the increased trading volume and reputation of Hyperliquid.

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