The first working day of 2025's assignment still has nothing much to say. Although BTC's price has seen a nice increase, the trading volume hasn't improved much, and there has been a noticeable decline in investor turnover, indicating that liquidity hasn't really improved. This aligns with expectations; we will have to wait until next week. In fact, only the trend of #BTC and some other cryptocurrencies is still looking good, while U.S. stocks have shifted from an opening increase to a decline, and the drop is gradually expanding.
In the evening, I already posted a tweet stating that the U.S. dollar index has exceeded 109, and the probability of investors' risk appetite decreasing is quite high. I'm not sure if BTC's rise is due to the IRS postponing cryptocurrency tax issues, but I haven't seen any other positive news. Moreover, U.S. stocks related to cryptocurrencies have also seen a pullback, so for now, I don't believe this is the beginning of a new round of significant increases. If it continues to rise above $98,000, I might start considering short-term trades.
We will have to see how things unfold during the day tomorrow.
Looking back at BTC's data, the reduction in holdings by loss-making investors is almost over. With today's surge, short-term profit-taking investors have begun to step up their exit pace. This kind of oscillating trend is indeed more suitable for short-term investors. From the current support data, $95,000 as a central line remains quite stable, and it has been oscillating as expected over the past few days. After next week, we can see if there is a need to adjust the support level.
What I'm currently worried about is whether BTC and most cryptocurrencies can still achieve independent increases if the U.S. stock market continues to maintain a downward trend after opening tomorrow night, especially in the absence of new positive news.
PS: This is not a bearish outlook. I just feel that it may maintain an oscillating trend until after next week.
Data has been updated, address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing
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