The altcoin season, which I have been mentioning since mid-year, is bound to happen; it's just a matter of time. I still hold this view. Generally speaking, the altcoin season requires the following conditions, which pertain to VC's ALT and have nothing to do with memes.

1. Sufficient liquidity. A broad upward trend usually only occurs during liquidity peaks. For example, 2021 saw unprecedented monetary easing. Of course, liquidity is not solely provided from outside; the FOMO sentiment within the market can also stimulate an increase in liquidity, such as during elections.

Reference data: Market capitalization of USDT and USDC, the amount of USDT and USDC transferred to exchanges, USDT and USDC exchange stock.

2. Enough overflow funds. The overflow funds here mainly come from leading institutions, market makers, or project teams that inject part of their profits from the mainstream market into altcoins, such as after significant rises in #BTC and #ETH or the US stock market.

Reference data: Significant price surge of ETH, with price growth outpacing BTC.

3. The emergence of one or more hot sectors. For example, DeFi and GameFi in 2021.

Reference data: Significant increase in on-chain yields.

4. FOMO sentiment triggered by key events. The FOMO sentiment leads to users blindly bullish, with large amounts of capital flooding into the market. Every day, you can see people sharing their gains or achieving returns of dozens or hundreds of times; it seems like anything bought is profitable.

Reference data: Total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies.

5. The effect of leading exchanges, with new investment amounts continuously rising and new coins maintaining short-term increases. When the altcoin season arrives, especially when hot sectors explode, the projects listed on leading exchanges will tend to concentrate on that sector, such as DeFi in 2021, GameFi in 2022, inscriptions in 2023, and Ton in 2024, all showing similar effects.

Reference data: Returns and frequency of LaunchPool and the amount of invested capital.

These five points are my personal summary and do not necessarily represent the only conditions. However, if more than three of them occur simultaneously, I would consider it the arrival of the altcoin season. Currently, the probability leans more towards a brewing period.

For instance, ETFs and elections can drive points 1 and 4, but unfortunately, points 2, 3, and 5 have not appeared, so the duration is not long.

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