Going into 2024, the "out of consensus" but consensus opinion was that small caps were going to experience a catch-up rally.

But the NYSE FANG+ Index outperformed the S&P 500, which outperformed the equal-weight S&P 500, which outperformed the Russell 2000.

This is the breakdown for 2024 returns:

• $NYFANG +50.5%

• $SPX +23.3%

• $RSP +11.05%

• $RUT +10.01%

Two straight years where the MVPs of the market acted like MVPs, put the team on their back, and carried the squad to victory.

Two straight years where the S&P 500 gained more than +20% for an average annual return of +23.8% (not including dividends).

So will Mag 7 outperformance happen again in 2025?

I'm actually less sure.

Gun to my head, I say yes.

Last year, I thought it was a no-brainer.

This year, I'm actually less sure about many things.

I'm bullish, but not as high conviction as I was last year.

This isn't a "My 2025 Outlook" post, but I thought it was important to reflect on arguably the biggest theme in the market over the past 24 months: mega-cap's (specifically for tech & growth) outperformance.

In real-time, I told you the following:

• 2022 was sell rips & dip toes back

• 2023 was buy, regardless of macro

• 2024 was buy, because of macro & trend

• 2025 is probably the year of sitting on hands

As always, it will be important to be adaptable & flexible, allowing ourselves to adjust to incoming data, trends, strengths and weaknesses, but I also don't want to jump at shadows.

Remember what I've said over and over...

I want to be a net buyer of assets every single year.

I'm 29 years old.

I have income.

My net worth is at all-time highs (like the average American).

I don't think I've done anything special, fancy, or unique.

I've just stayed the course and had convictions to buy core assets (mostly BTC, tech, mega-caps, and software).

So that's my plan this year... but with a twist...

I've already done the hard part: buying.

I've taken the risks, and those risks have paid off.

Yeah, a handful of positions in my long-term equity portfolio are down vs. my net cost basis, but I have so many with +20% to +40% returns in less than a year, not including positions like $PLTR, $COHR, $FTNT, or $AVGO that are up much more.

Sequence of return risk is on my side.

So am I in a rush to allocate fresh capital from income?

Nope.

At least not right at this minute.

Though I will absolutely buy more stocks this year.

What would give me conviction?

I'll be sharing that with premium members of Cubic Analytics very soon.

Go join as a free member with the link in my bio, check out my work, and see if it resonates with you enough to upgrade to a paid membership.

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