Cold thoughts and hot actions of on-chain AI Agent surfing: develop trading discipline, learn to draw inferences from one instance to another.

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4 days ago

Cold thoughts and hot actions on this wave of on-chain AI Agent surfing:

1) Abandon the idea of coming to on-chain PVP; the evolution from AI MEME stage to AI infra has transformed the investment logic into pursuing PVE "value." The era of 10U P small players "charging in blindly" has ended.

2) Bet along the narrative evolution of AI Agents, from launch platforms like Virtual, to @aixbt_agent single AI, then to the Eliza framework and protocol standards, and the upcoming Agent chainification. Excellent projects will emerge in the market precisely at points of emotional hunger; just be patient and wait.

3) Understand that this round of on-chain opportunities does not come from FOMO but from "trend" price investment. At this moment, we are precisely at the early stage of a trend rising. Choosing FOMO means enduring the agony of massive fluctuations in the early market, while choosing intuitive judgment of trends may allow for early heavy bets that can be held. Early conspiracy groups will use candlestick charts to script, targeting purely FOMO groups.

4) Good value targets are either unnoticed when discovered (1-3M), or have already become popular (20-50M), or have climbed to high positions (100M-500M) after consensus formation. It is recommended for newcomers to time their entry during the early and mature stages. Mid-tier projects face the agony of a secondary PVP stage; without absolute trend insight, one will eventually be left behind. It is advised to keep mid-tier project positions below 30%.

5) A visible large number of projects will quickly emerge; learn to make comparative judgments, such as Swarms Vs SNAI, Griffain Vs Neur, ARC Vs REI. There are many directions for early technical segmentation. Through comparison, you can avoid FOMO at high positions and identify projects in value troughs; the right direction will always have competitors.

6) @shawmakesmagic's Twitter and #ai16z official website dynamics contain a wealth of opportunities. Teams and projects that can hold onto the ai16z thigh are certainly not ordinary; they have a much greater chance of success than randomly charging into projects without background or origin. Despite Shaw being quite talkative, the small bells add up.

7) You must have your own technical aesthetics and trading intuition, as well as a set of robust trading discipline. For example, reduce positions when prices surge, build positions when prices drop, and avoid having too many projects in your portfolio. Do not heavily invest in projects you do not understand. Do not fear missing out; the chaotic market era of FOMO will definitely sift through the sand, and the polarized performance will be very prominent, with the final goal being to lock in profits.

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