Happy New Year! I often like to stay at home on the first day of the year, studying the new cycles and trends of the new year, setting goals for the year, and adjusting my plans! The economic cycle has long been predicted, as referenced below. However, today I checked the solar cycle, and surprisingly, it aligns perfectly with the predictions, mutually confirming each other. According to NASA's data, July 2025 will be the peak of solar activity. This is consistent with our prediction of the current bull market's Kitchin cycle: starting in the first quarter of 2023 and ending around the second quarter of 2025!

Both solar activity peaks and troughs can lead to various events. Additionally, during periods of solar activity peaks, electromagnetic storms are likely to occur, causing different malfunctions in flights, electronic devices, and power systems. In 2025, it is advisable to stay indoors more, avoid unnecessary outings, and prioritize safety!

At our brokerage research institute, when studying cycles, Wang Zhou mentioned that the economic cycle is essentially an inventory cycle, which is fundamentally a productivity cycle, and the productivity cycle is essentially a natural cycle. The natural cycle here refers to solar activity, which triggers extreme climate cycles like El Niño/La Niña, all of which are interrelated. These weather changes can also affect global food production and economic activities. This year, there is a typical extreme natural situation: the warm winter in Siberia, Russia, which is on average 12 degrees Celsius warmer than previous years. This is quite extraordinary! The Siberian cold wave is very important, but this year it is extremely unusual. This is just a small example. Below are some cases from the past 100 years showing the impact of solar activity peaks on the economy and natural disasters:

Solar Activity Peaks:

1. 1937 (Solar Activity Peak)

• Financial Event: The second bottom of the Great Depression in the United States, the 1937-1938 economic recession.
• Natural Disaster: The Great Mississippi Flood in the United States.

1. 1957 (Solar Activity Peak)

• Financial Event: The Suez Crisis causing global market fluctuations.
• Natural Disaster: The super cyclone in India in 1957, resulting in significant casualties.

1. 1979 (Solar Activity Peak)

• Financial Event: The oil crisis following the Iranian Revolution, leading to a surge in global oil prices.
• Natural Disaster: The cyclone in the Bay of Bengal in 1979, causing approximately 300,000 deaths.

1. 2000 (Solar Activity Peak)

• Financial Event: The burst of the internet bubble, leading to a crash in tech stocks in the U.S.
• Natural Disaster: The earthquake in Gujarat, India, causing massive losses.

1. 2014 (Solar Activity Peak)

• Financial Event: Market fluctuations in the later stages of the European debt crisis.
• Natural Disaster: Typhoon Haiyan severely impacting Southeast Asia.

Solar Activity Troughs:

1. 1923 (Solar Activity Trough)

• Financial Event: Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic of Germany reaching its peak.
• Natural Disaster: The Great Kanto Earthquake in Japan, resulting in 140,000 deaths.

1. 1944 (Solar Activity Trough)

• Financial Event: The Bretton Woods Conference, establishing the post-World War II financial order.
• Natural Disaster: Severe impacts from tropical storms in Southeast Asia.

1. 1964 (Solar Activity Trough)

• Financial Event: Changes in the global economic landscape during the Cold War.
• Natural Disaster: The Alaska earthquake (magnitude 9.2), causing significant destruction.

1. 1976 (Solar Activity Trough)

• Financial Event: Economic fluctuations following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system.
• Natural Disaster: The Tangshan earthquake, resulting in 240,000 deaths.

1. 1997 (Solar Activity Trough)

• Financial Event: The Asian financial crisis.
• Natural Disaster: The major floods in 1998.

1. 2008 (Solar Activity Trough)

• Financial Event: The global financial crisis.
• Natural Disaster: The L'Aquila earthquake in Italy in 2009.

1. 2020 (Solar Activity Trough)

• Financial Event: Financial panic triggered by the pandemic.
• Man-made Disaster: The COVID-19 pandemic.

In 2025, hold more U.S. dollars, stock up on gold, accumulate BTC, go out less, socialize less, remain low-key and introspective, and prioritize health and happiness! 😎

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