🤣 After messing with the computer until now, it's five in the morning. It's the first day of the New Year, and I have to wake up early in the morning, what a pain. Today's trading volume is the lowest in the past few working days, which proves that although it's a working day, liquidity is just slightly better than the weekend's garbage time, of course, this is in reference to the US stock market and #BTC and #ETH.
During the daytime in Beijing, liquidity is expected to be lower than a typical weekend, and this situation should last until the end of this week. Next week, liquidity will gradually return, so for the next few days, BTC's price may still fluctuate around $95,000, and there's even a possibility of increased volatility, but from a trend perspective, nothing has changed.
More and more analysts are maintaining a relatively pessimistic view for 2025, mainly due to the constraints on liquidity replenishment from the Federal Reserve. The price of the dollar is now at its highest point for 2023 and 2024, and it's not far from the high point of 2022. It's possible that after the January interest rate meeting, the dollar index could surge to 110.
Therefore, until the Federal Reserve changes its mind, the main driving force in the cryptocurrency market will still rely on sentiment, and the biggest source of sentiment is Trump's power transition. The election is the first wave, the power transition is the second wave, and the realization of commitments to the cryptocurrency industry is the third wave. Right now, we are at the end of the first wave, so from a sentiment perspective, maintaining stability is already good enough. Unless there is new positive information, otherwise, fluctuations should be the most likely scenario.
Starting next week, it will be two weeks until the transition, and we should gradually start to see some clues. So, this garbage time is the most torturous, as no one can predict the future. You can't say that losing won't be torturous either, so right now it's a sentiment PVP.
Today's BTC still has a high turnover rate on-chain. Early profit-taking investors have shown signs of reducing their holdings in recent days, but from a sentiment perspective, it remains relatively stable, with no signs of panic, especially in terms of support. Although $95,000 is still the support point, $93,800 has already started to gather a lot of chips. Let's wait until next week to adjust the support, as most of the chips here are short-term, and things may change once liquidity returns.
My personal thought is that before next Monday, if the price rises well, I might do some short-term trading, selling #BTC at $95,000, and then buy back when it drops. If it continues to fall, $89,000 is my third buyback position. But I personally think this price may not be reached.
Data has been updated, address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing
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