Good evening, brothers!

Views on Stock Market Volatility

In his 1997 letter to shareholders, Buffett dedicated a large section to his views on stock market volatility. He introduced a small test: If you have to eat a beef hamburger every day but do not raise cattle yourself, would you prefer the price of beef to go up or down? If you need to change cars every so often and are not a car manufacturer, would you prefer car prices to go up or down? The answer is obvious.

When it comes to the stock market, if you are playing the role of a "net buyer" over the next five years, would you prefer stock prices to go up or down? The principle is the same as buying a car or a hamburger; since you are not a business owner or a provider of stocks, but rather a purchaser of stocks, it is obviously better if the stock is cheaper. However, it is strange that many investors are ecstatic when stock prices rise and feel downcast when stock prices fall.

Why is there such a significant difference in people's attitudes towards buying stocks compared to buying cars or hamburgers? The reason is that when you buy a car or a hamburger, it is for consumption, not for reselling at a higher price. Feeling happy when stock prices rise and sad when they fall is essentially because you subconsciously treat it as a trading commodity. If you consider stocks from an investment perspective, your mindset will naturally be very different.

In my view, Buffett is a master of using logic; he always starts with simple examples around us and gradually guides us into rational thinking.

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A year of global elections, a shift by the Federal Reserve, a surge in artificial intelligence, and skyrocketing Bitcoin…

2024 is a year full of excitement and surprises, with Trump returning to the White House after four years, major global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle, and both gold and Bitcoin soaring, among other events that are enough to be recorded in history, collectively depicting the ups and downs of the capital markets.

This year, inflationary pressures have significantly eased globally, with many central banks starting their rate-cutting cycles and entering a phase of loose monetary policy. Among them, the Federal Reserve has implemented its first rate cut in four years, alleviating growing recession concerns. As inflation steadily approaches the target level of 2%, the Federal Reserve is gradually easing monetary policy, with a total rate cut of 100 basis points within the year.

BTC: On the 4-hour level, the price continues to oscillate near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a generally average price trend.

On the daily level, the price continues to be constrained by multiple moving averages, with a generally average price trend.

In summary, the support level is 93,800, and the resistance level is 94,300.

ETH: On the 4-hour level, the price is above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with the price trend still stabilizing. The support level is 3,380, and the resistance level is 3,400.

LTC: The price continues to stay above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a healthy price trend. The support level is 96, and the resistance level is 106.

BCH: The price continues to stay above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, with a fluctuating price trend. The support level is 430, and the resistance level is 460.

That's all for now, good night!

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