As we walk into the end of 2024, we are about to welcome 2025. Life often has too many moments of "too late." Those past days, whether filled with grievances or pain, have already passed. This year has been about encounters, gains, losses, growth, letting go, and conclusions. In short, peace is a blessing; we let go of old matters and welcome the blooming flowers in the coming year. In 2025, I wish everyone peace and happiness!
Looking back now, our recent analysis and judgment of the market have been quite accurate. Since the pullback from the historical high, we have maintained a high short position, which not only avoided the risks brought by the market downturn but also yielded good profits. Yesterday's market continued the recent weak operational rhythm, as we anticipated, with the daytime primarily characterized by slight fluctuations and little volatility. In the evening, there was a quick drop that broke the recent market low, reaching around 91,500. However, it quickly rebounded in the early morning, rising to around 95,000, but ultimately could not hold and fell again. Currently, the market is fluctuating around 92,500. In our operations, whether it was the earlier short positions or the recent short positions we have been laying out, we have all gained good profits and continue to hold!
From the market perspective, there hasn't been much change on the daily level; it remains in a bearish cycle, with the K-line showing a downward arrangement of bearish patterns. The KDJ is still running with a dead cross downward, and the middle and lower bands are opening downward. Regarding the daily trend, we have been emphasizing recently that in a market washout, we need to wait for the final adjustment to end before better engaging in the next round of market movements, so more time is needed to digest the previous gains.
On the four-hour chart, the K-line previously had a significant bullish rebound, but then it dropped again, indicating that the current market's bullish confidence is not very strong. As the market continues to weaken, it may bring greater selling pressure, meaning that the probability of further downward movement is higher in the current market. Additionally, there are no obvious signs of a stop in the decline or stabilization in the technical indicators; the weak operation in the market persists, with the MACD maintaining a bearish cycle and no sign of volume contraction. The KDJ is running with a dead cross downward, and in the short term, it is under pressure from the MA7 moving average.
In terms of operations, for the short term, we still adopt a bearish approach. The area around 93,500 can be used as a position for layout operations, with the main support currently at the 90,000 mark. If it breaks below, there is a high probability of further downward continuation.
Ethereum has been relatively oversold in the earlier period, so we have recently seen that Ethereum's decline is not significant, currently fluctuating around 3,340. The upcoming operations will also focus on short positions, as once Bitcoin breaks down, it will be difficult for Ethereum to remain unaffected. In terms of operations, we can use around 3,420 as a layout point, with support at 3,200 and 3,100.
Altcoins are showing two trends: strong performance represented by on-chain AI, with active capital and a very strong AI concept, while in the secondary market, altcoins are relatively weak. In the current situation where Bitcoin is not strong, capital is more inclined towards on-chain speculation of new concepts. We have always mentioned that AI indeed has considerable potential, and it is worth our serious attention!
【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be outdated, and specific operations should follow real-time strategies.】
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