The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui talking about currency, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of currency friends. Welcome everyone's attention and likes, and refuse any market smokescreens.
To begin with, I want to clarify that many platforms use AI to automatically generate Lao Cui's videos, and the articles are mostly taken out of context. If you are interested, it is best to watch Lao Cui's articles. Returning to our market situation, many friends have asked Lao Cui to make a prediction about next year's market. After much thought, Lao Cui decided to analyze the overall financial market today and what kind of trend will form next year. First, let's look at the global landscape. The American side is a typical representative. According to Trump's past style, it will definitely focus on stimulating the stock market, including interest rate cuts, and during his term, he will certainly push the data to the extreme. There may not be four opportunities for interest rate cuts next year, but based on his governing style, the four-year term will definitely revolve around the interest rate cut strategy. This is good news for all financial markets, as businessmen are almost impossible to change their focus on profit. As for whether the U.S. stock market can continue to operate under the strategy of creating historical highs, that is a question. Everyone should be clear that although the financial market will be influenced by politics, the core still depends on Trump's determination. Whether he can lead the U.S. to a new height depends on personal ability. Even if he introduces a series of strategies and interest rate cuts, it does not necessarily mean he can achieve a perfect governing route.
The upper structure is not a big problem for us. The road Trump wants to take is also very difficult. Just the fact that he wants to hold power means he is destined to stand in opposition to the deep leadership. This kind of struggle is unpredictable. At this stage, he does have the upper hand, including Musk's plans. Following this route should not be a problem. The aspect of interest rate cuts means that more funds will flow out. From this perspective, the main competitors in the cryptocurrency circle are the U.S. stock market, the dollar, and the old A. The threat of the old A is not our concern. Setting aside the old A, we have the gold market. How is gold? For next year, as long as there is no escalation of war, the price of gold will not be too fierce. Gold is mainly about steady growth. The impacts of the two wars in the Middle East and Ukraine have already pushed gold to a new height. This bubble still needs some time to digest, and Lao Cui estimates that this period will take at least six months to a year. Additionally, both major economies are focused on stimulating the domestic stock market, and the amount of funds needed for the stock market next year will be enormous, which is not good news for other markets. This is similar to the current altcoins; if the main funds are insufficient, the altcoins will stagnate and must wait for the main funds to have room before they can rise.
The growth of the stock market is fundamental. Whether viewed from the perspective of the two countries' stimulus strategies or from a competitive relationship, next year's stock market will inevitably form a new height. You can see that both countries' emphasis on funds will definitely crazily attract off-market investments. The strategies on both sides are almost consistent: converting stocks into debt. This cannot be elaborated on, but as long as it appears in the form of debt conversion, currency depreciation will also become an inevitable phenomenon. Therefore, users with cash should try not to store it; the best way is to spend it or convert it into other currencies for storage. As the last month comes to a close, various data will be released in succession, especially our foreign trade growth data, which previously seemed to be around ten percent. The change in this data is almost related to domestic strategies, shifting the focus from Europe and America to Asia and Africa, and the basic transformation can be considered successful. This cannot be explained in depth; if you are interested, you can privately message Lao Cui to discuss. With New Year's Day approaching, major institutions are preparing financial reports, and Lao Cui is also busy compiling the results of the year. The update of articles may be a bit slow, and I hope for everyone's understanding. If you have questions, you can directly ask Lao Cui.
The above mainly clarifies that the direction of policies will lead funds to choose markets, and next year's main force will almost all be in the stock market. There are actually not many assets that can affect the cryptocurrency circle; the secondary market is the battlefield for cryptocurrencies. Do not think that after distinguishing the main and secondary, the cryptocurrency circle will stagnate; this is not the case. Always be clear that the entire market value of the cryptocurrency circle occupies very little of the funds in the U.S. stock market. An inflow of 1 trillion can drive Bitcoin up by 50,000 points again. In a small market, the flow of funds will generate growth. This is the inherent advantage over the U.S. stock market. Looking at the ETF market launched this year, it can be considered a miracle in the financial market. In less than a year, it has almost matched the gold ETF. This growth rate and scale can be said to be the largest increase since the formation of the financial market. The rapid growth in the early stage only indicates that the later space is larger, and it is not a downhill road as everyone understands. From the above points, a bold prediction can be made: the trend in the first half of the year will continue to grow, while the second half will depend on Trump's actions.
Trump's strategy for the cryptocurrency circle will definitely focus on taxation. If there is a tax strategy, the best way to start will be with fiat currency. Currently, you have seen the launch of USDC, and it has been revealed that the biggest bank is behind the regulation, which is not a trend. The right to issue currency cannot be backed by capital. You can observe Trump's method of issuance; there will definitely be his shadow behind it. Taxation cannot be separated from a unified standard, and the best way to set standards is to grasp the overall flow of funds; otherwise, taxation will be completely chaotic. Understanding this should make it easier for everyone. The circulation data of USDT, and even the holding data, is completely private. Do you think this privacy benefits Trump or creates opposition? In a state of opposition, what decisions will Trump make? This is the key point Lao Cui is arguing. The regulatory power behind USDT is not strong enough to compete with Trump. Grasping these two pain points will basically clarify next year's trend. First, there is no suppression targeting the cryptocurrency circle. Almost all previously opposing forces will, to some extent, utilize the cryptocurrency circle. There is no reason to suppress it. As long as everyone can allow the growth of the cryptocurrency circle, under Trump's main force, it will definitely lead the cryptocurrency circle to a new high.
Lao Cui's summary: The summary is based on the entire prediction. First, the growth in the first half of the year will definitely be led by Trump, and the entire basic framework is to ensure the strength of the dollar, leading the growth of the cryptocurrency circle. The strength of the dollar is very important. As long as the foundation of the dollar does not change, the cryptocurrency circle will grow. As for the growth of the U.S. stock market being less than that of the cryptocurrency circle, as long as it does not collapse, it is good news. The current trend of the U.S. stock market is still in an observable state. Although there is a downward trend, it is almost consistent with the cryptocurrency circle, both being the aftermath of interest rate cuts. It does not have short-term reference value. After New Year's Day, we will look at the recovery pattern. The entire period from January to April will basically lay the foundation for the cryptocurrency circle. After that, it will depend on the intensity of interest rate cuts and Trump's guidance on the cryptocurrency circle. Based on the current scale, the funds in the market can pull the cryptocurrency circle to over 100,000. However, due to considerations from other aspects, it will not be raised for the time being; it still belongs to the washout stage. The closer we get to Trump's inauguration, the frequency of fluctuations will accelerate. In fact, it is a test of everyone's patience. Lao Cui also laid out some long positions yesterday, with an average price around 92,000. The subsequent layout will depend on how the low points move. This layout may be mainly short-term, and mid to long-term positions cannot be held. As long as it approaches the 90,000 mark, everyone can try some long positions. Ultimately, the prediction for next year is growth. Everyone can hold boldly and profit by setting aside the fear of shorts!
Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Currency. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's Message: Investing is like playing chess. A master can see five, seven, or even ten steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation and plans for the big picture, not focusing on one piece or one square, aiming for the final victory. The novice, on the other hand, fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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