On the day Bitcoin reaches $1 million, everyone will surely recall 2024, a year that will be recorded in the history of the cryptocurrency industry. Bitcoin was officially approved for an ETF by the U.S. SEC, becoming one of the global assets that cannot go to zero, just like gold and silver. The price of $100,000 for a single Bitcoin has also filled the market with imagination about the future of cryptocurrency. Rhythm BlockBeats has compiled five pieces of data, hoping these figures can help everyone understand what happened in Crypto this year and also help envision what might happen in the future.

Chart 1: BTC Market Share

In 2024, Bitcoin rose over 130% within the year, a surge that cannot be separated from the two keywords "Wall Street" and "Trump." The pricing power and liquidity of Bitcoin underwent a structural shift after clear support from the U.S. financial and political circles.

Institutional Entry, Charging Ahead

On January 11, ten Bitcoin spot ETFs were approved. After this positive news, Bitcoin's price experienced a period of "Grayscale dumping," reaching the first historical high of 2024 on March 13.

Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits Historical High After 15 Years, What Happened in the 800 Days Since It Returned to $69,000

Currently, Bitcoin spot ETFs have absorbed an average of 259% of the daily newly issued Bitcoin since their launch, accumulating a total inflow of $30 billion and holding over 1.408 million Bitcoins, equivalent to 7% of the total circulating supply. In 2024, there were 155 days of net inflow for Bitcoin ETFs, with an average daily net inflow of 5,233 BTC; in contrast, there were 93 days of net outflow, with an average daily net outflow of 2,702 BTC.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Inflow and Outflow in 2024; Source: SoSoValue

The returns of Bitcoin and the flow of ETF funds also showed a close correlation throughout the year. Sustained strong inflows into ETFs typically accompanied strong market performance, and vice versa. This relationship can be intuitively understood, as ETF inflows reflect the absorption capacity of the spot market, i.e., buying pressure, while outflows reflect selling pressure.

The stable to negative fund flow during the summer corresponded to the market state of excessive selling by institutions such as the German government and Mentougou, while the surge in fund flow in the fourth quarter coincided with Trump's election and MicroStrategy's aggressive accumulation.

As of December 20, 2024, institutional investors had purchased a total of 859,454 Bitcoins, accounting for approximately 4.3% of the total circulating supply. Currently, institutional investors make up 31% of all known Bitcoin holders, a significant increase from 14% in 2023. Among publicly listed companies, 297,673 Bitcoins were added in 2024, with MicroStrategy acquiring nearly 250,000 Bitcoins through an active financing strategy, bringing its total holdings to 439,000. Although about 230,000 Bitcoins this year came from bankruptcy liquidations and seized assets, institutional demand effectively absorbed the selling pressure, with approximately 22% of the circulating supply available for market trading, close to the 2021 peak level.

The dominance of CME in the total open interest throughout the year also indicates a significant institutional trend in the Bitcoin market. As a top global financial derivatives trading platform, CME attracts a large number of directional funds, basis traders, and market makers due to its strict regulatory framework and transparency.

Bitcoin Contract Open Interest Situation; Source: Coinglass

These institutions trading Bitcoin derivatives through CME not only brought higher capital efficiency and liquidity but also gradually changed the market structure, concentrating trading behavior more in the derivatives market. Meanwhile, the activity of complex financial products like 2x leveraged Bitcoin ETFs further solidified institutional capital's dominant position in the Bitcoin market, marking a transition from a retail-driven to an institutionally dominated mature market.

Gradually Detaching from the Fundamentals of the Crypto Circle?

On April 20, Bitcoin experienced its fourth halving, but the price on that day did not align with the historical average increase of 22%, instead dropping by 8%. In the following 125 days, 2024 became the worst-performing phase after previous halvings.

One reason for this phenomenon is that the actual impact of each halving relative to the circulating supply is continuously diminishing, and this year, under the influence of macro factors, this weakening is even more pronounced. Data shows that the circulating supply of Bitcoin is expected to increase by 216,158 BTC in 2024, while the annual issuance for 2025 is only 164,250 BTC, lower than MicroStrategy's purchases from November 1 to December 12, 2024, resulting in a network annual inflation rate of only 0.8%.

Therefore, in the long run, the supply shock brought by halving will have an increasingly smaller impact on Bitcoin prices. The more significant determining factors for Bitcoin prices in the future may shift towards structural changes on the demand side, rather than primarily relying on supply contraction caused by halving.

On the other hand, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stock assets has been strengthening. In financial markets, asset allocation emphasizes that when significant volatility occurs, assets in the basket do not rise and fall together. Therefore, when Grayscale was aggressively buying Bitcoin in 2019, the market understood it as Bitcoin having a very low correlation with all other dollar-denominated assets at that time.

However, in 2024, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks was positive for most of the time, and the movements of Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market were more synchronized than at almost any time in the past, indicating that macroeconomic variables driving the stock market are also shaping the crypto market. Unless there are specific black swan events related to cryptocurrencies, this situation may continue throughout the Federal Reserve's entire easing cycle.

Correlation Coefficient Between Bitcoin and U.S. Stocks in 2024; Source: Newhedge

On August 5, the Japanese stock market crashed, causing global stock markets to decline to varying degrees, and Bitcoin also fell to its lowest level in months on that day, with investors rushing to sell Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF shares, resulting in a liquidation amount of $1.16 billion within 24 hours.

Subsequently, analysis firms attributed Bitcoin's sharp decline to the unexpected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, coupled with market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which increased uncertainty in central bank policies and led to deleveraging in the financial system. Many market participants borrowed yen to invest in high-yield assets, reversing their positions, with Bitcoin becoming a victim in this process. It wasn't until October, buoyed by a more crypto-friendly political climate, that Bitcoin's price broke through $73,000 again.

At the same time, this year, MicroStrategy (MSTR), which has the highest correlation with Bitcoin among U.S. stocks, joined the Nasdaq 100 index on December 23, further increasing the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stock assets. Additionally, the final rebalancing mechanism of funds investing in BTC ETFs will also enhance structural correlation.

The Emergence of the Trump Market

In 2024, as Trump sought support from the crypto industry, the price of Bitcoin was closely linked to Trump's election odds. After Trump confirmed his victory, Bitcoin's price surged to $99,500, just a step away from six figures. On December 4, Bitcoin broke the $100,000 mark for the first time in history, pushing its market capitalization close to $2 trillion, ranking just behind Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google's parent company Alphabet in the U.S. stock market capitalization rankings.

Comparison of Bitcoin Market Capitalization Changes in 2024; Source: K33 Research

Related Reading: The Indomitable Bitcoin: $100,000 for a Single Coin, From Zero to $2 Trillion in 16 Years

Michael Saylor and Trump are two key figures in summarizing Bitcoin's journey in 2024. The former leveraged Bitcoin with financial tools across cycles, becoming the happiest person in this bull market; while Trump announced at the Bitcoin conference the establishment of a national strategic reserve, fired Gensler, appointed a pro-crypto White House team, and personally entered the scene, opening up the imagination for Bitcoin as a mainstream asset in the new cycle.

From the beginning of the year to now, institutions and MicroStrategy have net purchased 683,000 Bitcoins, with 245,000 of that inflow occurring in the weeks following the U.S. elections, proving that the Republican Party and Trump's policy inclinations will greatly enhance Bitcoin's importance among mainstream assets in the U.S., and the market is full of expectations for Trump's presidency and its impact on the cryptocurrency market.

The Late Arrival of Altcoin Season

The change in Bitcoin's market share has always been an important indicator for observing market dynamics in the crypto industry. In 2024, Bitcoin's market share rose from the beginning of the year to 61%. Meanwhile, investors lamented that there were not many assets that could outperform Bitcoin this year, and the price performance of altcoins has made insiders frequently remark on the high difficulty of operations in this cycle.

Bitcoin Price Trend Chart for 2024; Source: TradingView

Bitcoin's market capitalization grew by 141% in 2024, soaring from $828 billion to $1.98 trillion; Ethereum's market capitalization increased by 72%, rising from $274 billion to $473 billion; the market capitalization of other altcoins grew by 129% in 2024, from $389 billion to $886 billion, primarily driven by the strong performance of SOL and meme coins. Among the top 100 altcoins by market capitalization, only 25 coins outperformed Bitcoin.

On one hand, the highly valued "VC coins" were not recognized by the market this year; on the other hand, Bitcoin's steadily increasing market share in 2024 did not bring much real liquidity to the crypto market. In March of this year, Shen Yu asserted that "there is no altcoin season in this cycle," as the liquidity injected by Bitcoin spot ETFs had little chance of flowing into the altcoin market, resulting in the market performance of "Bitcoin's solo bull run."

Looking back at this year, Bitcoin completed a capital relay race driven by Wall Street and policy, redefining its status as a global financial asset by breaking the $100,000 barrier. However, this was not just a price breakthrough; it was a profound transformation in market structure, capital flow, and asset perception. The wave of Bitcoin ETF adoption and the institutionally dominated market are pushing this decentralized asset toward a broader mainstream stage, but it has also made it more complex and sensitive to macro variables.

From the diminishing marginal effects of halving to the boost from Trump's policies, Bitcoin in 2024 demonstrated not only its mastery over cycles but also its ability to integrate into the global financial system. Currently, the market may still be entangled in issues of concentrated liquidity and the absence of altcoins, but in the long run, Bitcoin is evolving into a more resilient and recognized global store of value.

Chart 2: AI Mindshare

2024 was a magical year for CryptoAI. From the surge in Nvidia's stock price at the beginning of the year driving the rise of the DePin concept, to the development of datasets and machine learning, and finally ignited by Truth Terminal, leading to a craze for AI Agents. Whether traders or developers outside the circle, whether retail or institutional, all turned their attention to the AI Agent track. Let's review how this currently consensus-rich track exploded over the past year.

Decentralized Computing Power: The Touchstone of CryptoAI

DePin sector index changes in 2024; Source: SoSoValue

In January 2024, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman clearly pointed out at the Davos Forum that the shortage of computing power and energy is the biggest bottleneck for current AI development, predicting that computing power will become equivalent to currency in the future. With ChatGPT sweeping the globe and Nvidia's stock price hitting new highs, market attention to the AI field surged, especially in the context of global GPU resource scarcity, making the concept of distributed GPUs highly welcomed in the market. Not only did old projects like FileCoin and Arweave return to the market's attention, but new DePin projects also emerged like snowflakes.

Related Reading:

《What Innovations Will the Combination of AI and DePIN Bring?》

《Huobi Research: Current Status and Development Forecast of the DePIN Track, with Potential Long-term Profit Expectations Exceeding 400 Times》

Until around June, a large number of emerging DePin projects began TGE token airdrops, marking a cycle for yield farming studios. However, Nvidia, with its AI chip business, surpassed many tech giants to become the world's highest-valued publicly traded company, and then began to decline. The reason was the FUD in the market; many believed that the stability of DePin's computing power was insufficient to support the training of large models or similar mid-to-high demand companies at that time. Coupled with the booming meme market, the validation cycle for DePin was too long compared to the fast pace of memes, leading many to reduce their asset allocations, and the market entered a period of calm.

Datasets and Machine Learning: The Arsenal of AI Agents

In addition to computing power demands like GPUs, data is the most important resource for AI development. Blockchain data, due to its open, transparent, and verifiable nature, provides unique value for AI/ML "machine learning." ML algorithms transform data into useful insights or actions through technologies like GANs, VAEs, and Transformers. Many large companies now collect their own user data, as it can be used not only for AI training but also for big data recommendations. Information-related tokens surged in popularity from the beginning of the year with AI to the end of the year with AI Agents.

In this era, data is a high-value asset. People have become accustomed to traditional companies directly profiting from user information while users receive no profit. However, this year saw the first awakening of information rights, leading to the birth of DataDao. Reddit revealed in its IPO prospectus in February that it had signed data authorization agreements with AI companies, generating a total revenue of $203 million, while Reddit's users received not a penny.

Thus, "r/datadao" was born, empowering user data with the token $RDAT, allowing users to export their data from the Reddit platform and upload it to the community database to earn tokens. This was the first DAO to fight for user data rights, driven by the machine learning platform Vana, which was listed on Binance in December.

At the beginning of the year, Vitalik expressed his views on current CryptoAI in 《The Prospects and Challenges of Crypto+AI Applications》, discussing the potential integration of zero-knowledge proofs (ZK-SNARKs) and multi-party computation (MPCs) technologies with AI training sets. The advancements in these two technologies this year also propelled the development of CryptoAI privacy algorithm projects, leading to the emergence of several projects providing platforms and ecosystems for machine learning.

This includes Vana, which supports DataDao, and Bittensor, which is behind the popular market token $TAO. Machine learning served as the foundational application for the AI Agent bull market in October. Bittensor collaborated with the well-known AI Agent platform Virtuals Protocol to launch the cat AI Agent TAOCAT to showcase Bittensor's machine learning capabilities. The well-known AI project Nous Research also developed a subnet on Bittensor to support the dataset evaluation system, which not only optimized the large model Hermes but also developed the model optimization tool DisTrO.

Related Reading:

《Bottoming Out and Rebounding: Why the Old Coin r/datadao Came Back to Life?》
《The First Data DAO in the AI Era: Vana, the Little Bittensor Defending User Data Rights》

AI + Meme: The Explosive Growth of Crypto AI

AI Agents marked the first large-scale successful landing of CryptoAI, connecting decentralized computing power to datasets and machine learning networks with actual demand. Before this, the demand in these areas was point-to-point and lacked continuity. However, with the emergence of AI Agents, a flywheel effect was generated across various related sectors, serving as a bridge that brought infrastructure and attention economy demands to lower-tier users.

In the early stages of the AI Agent cycle, a large number of Meme + AI Agents emerged. At this stage, the two are not significantly different in their business models; both essentially revolve around attention economy, generating culture rather than value. Therefore, as long as there are enough devoted followers, this token or culture can sustain itself.

Among them, Truth Terminal is undoubtedly the leader of this AI Agent trend. Trained by Andy in Infinite Blackrooms, it established the Goatse Gospel religion during a conversation. With the support of a $50,000 Bitcoin donation from a16z founder, it launched its eponymous token Goatse Gospel, eventually becoming the first AI millionaire with the help of Fartcoin, attracting more attention from Web2 developers and AI enthusiasts.

The breakout of $Goat has led to the prosperity of the entire CryptoAI ecosystem, making it more of a symbolic existence rather than just a technology, application, or meme. Related concepts such as FartCoin, Shoggoth, and the error error ttyl representing the Tee model can symbolize various aspects of AI-related meme culture, prompting deeper philosophical reflections. Meanwhile, opinion leaders or virtual idols like AIxbt, Zerebro, and Luna have gained immense influence through marketing strategies that exceed human efficiency.

Related Reading: 《Unprecedented Prosperity: What Other Potential AI Meme Coins Are There?》

However, a larger bubble than the attention economy is the bubble factory, with Virtuals Protocol being a premeditated bubble-making machine. Initially, many AI Agents chose to launch their tokens on pump.fun. When a qualified asset launch platform already exists, creating an AI Agent ecosystem requires more than just launching tokens. Virtuals is the most comprehensive AI Agent ecosystem platform in terms of ecological thinking. Its initial business model architecture includes a token launch platform, Agent framework, AI Agent creator, ecological tokens, native influential IP images, and practical application cases across various tracks. This is why Virtuals' flywheel can continue to spin in this round.

Related Reading: 《The Rise of New AI Agent Forces: A Review of Potential Tokens in the Virtuals Ecosystem》

In 2024, the market value of AI-related tokens showed a trend of growth;

AI16z's influence in Sol is comparable to that of Virtuals, boasting a massive developer community. The open-source architecture Eliza has garnered over 6,000 stars and has been forked 1,800 times. The launched ElizaOS is gradually integrating the developer community, ecological projects, and friendly external projects. The people in the AI16z ecosystem are adept at maintaining the attention economy, from the uppercase and lowercase debate of Eliza, collaborations with Stanford University's research lab, to using the Tee and Eliza frameworks to create AI Agents that self-fund and distribute airdrops through AIPool, which humans cannot interfere with conceptually.

Whether criticized or praised, Shaw seems to keep the entire market focused on AI16z, allowing them to continue creating miracles in the market. Meanwhile, Zerebro and Story, which focus more on AI creation, showcase exciting experiences of bringing AI into the real world, making people look forward to the upcoming entertainment forms of the AGI era.

Related Reading:
《AI16z Founder Shaw's Latest Interview: Why Can AI Memes Attract Institutional Funds?》
《With an Annual Salary of $365,000, Story Protocol Hired an AI Agent as an Intern》

As the attraction market gradually weakened in 2024, there was still a need for underlying applications to continue. All participants in AI hope to push AI toward the AGI era, whether it be projects like Solana's Perplexity-GriffAIn, Swarms, eliza, GAME, etc. When people can truly immerse themselves in the applications of AI Agents, it will be a way to guide the market toward more continuity. CryptoAI, which can give AI Agents wallets, more comprehensive datasets, and multi-agent collaboration, may be the true soil that can push AI Agents into the AGI era. The era of AI Agents has just begun, and before the market finds larger speculative topics, Crypto AI will be the core trend.

Chart 3: Total Market Value of Meme Coins

The total market value of meme coins in 2024; Source: CoinMarketCap

In 2024, the meme coin sector was one of the fastest-growing and highest-trading volume areas. The myth of "getting rich overnight" attracted countless people's attention, especially after BOME broke the $100 million market cap at a record speed in March, leading the entire market into a heated "Meme Summer." Essentially, the strong performance of meme coins is based on attention and FOMO emotions, providing low trading costs, fair and transparent token distribution, and efficient issuance and trading mechanisms, meeting the speculative needs of many investors.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the overall market value of meme coins showed a growth trend in 2024. The market value fluctuated around $2 billion in the first quarter, and in March, with the birth of BOME and the rapid development of Pump.fun, the meme market underwent a transformative change, stabilizing at around $5 billion; from the second to the third quarter, although various "god coins" appeared in the market, the total market value of the meme market did not rise correspondingly, and meme trading gradually turned into a PvP among retail investors; in the fourth quarter, as favorable trends in U.S. policies became clearer, Bitcoin's price surged close to $100,000, and the combination of AI narratives and Binance's frenzied launch of meme coins injected massive liquidity into the meme market, making meme coins extraordinarily popular. The market size rapidly increased, reaching a peak market value of $13.71 billion on December 9, and as of the writing date (December 24), the market value was $9.65 billion.

Based on the changes in market value, I have divided the development process of meme coins in 2024 into three stages:

1-3 Months: Early Launch Phase, ORDI Peaks at the Start of the Year, BOME Explodes Overnight;

3-10 Months: Frequent Emergence of Golden Dogs, but No Growth in Market Value during the PvP Phase;

10-12 Months: AI Narratives + Binance's Frenzied Launch of Meme Coins, Market Value Soars, PvP Finally Turns into PvE.

1-3 Months: Early Launch Phase, ORDI Peaks at the Start of the Year, BOME Explodes Overnight

ORDI is the first BRC-20 token issued on the Bitcoin blockchain, and its most spectacular year was 2023, achieving a leap from 0 to several billion in market value within a year, leading the trend of inscriptions. Entering 2024, ORDI's popularity continued to rise, reaching a historical high of 97 USDT on March 5, with a market value of 1.84 billion dollars.

However, founder Casey was already dissatisfied with BRC-20, believing it would generate a large amount of "garbage" UTXOs. As Casey announced the Runes document on the X platform at the end of March 2024, Runes became the strongest competitor to inscriptions. Inscriptions have long occupied over 50% of the trading share on the Bitcoin chain, and after the official release of the Runes protocol in April, the trading share of BRC-20 and Ordinals has shrunk to less than 10%. As of the writing date, the price of ORDI is $26.46, and its market value has reduced to $560 million, only one-third of its peak market value.

Trading share on the Bitcoin chain; Source: geniidata

Related Reading: 《With Runes About to Be Released, Will the Inscription Carnival Continue?》

The explosive popularity of BOME ignited the first wave of enthusiasm in the 2024 meme coin market, and this meme heat began to spread to various public chains, marking the beginning of the 2024 meme carnival. At the same time, BOME innovatively adopted a "pre-sale" approach, launching a unique art show.

On March 14, 2024, the BOOK OF MEME (BOME) issued by Pepe meme artist Darkfarm surged 20 times within just three hours of its launch, with a market value exceeding $80 million. BOME is a permanent storage library for memes, which can be expanded with a series of meme creation functions. On March 13, Darkfarm initiated a pre-sale, allowing participation by sending SOL to a designated Solana address. The pre-sale's effect and the resulting heat were unexpected, as the token spread widely in both Chinese and English communities, with a large number of buy orders exceeding 100 SOL continuously pouring in, driving its price to rise; BOME peaked at a price of 0.0012 USDT, increasing approximately 24 times, with a market value exceeding $80 million.

Related Reading: 《Breaking $200 Million in On-Chain Trading Volume Within a Day: Why Did Pepe Meme Artist's BOME Explode?》

From a mechanism perspective, meme coins, as a type of cryptocurrency with no actual value, typically adopt a fair launch method for issuing tokens. Although pre-sales are common in traditional financial markets, meme coins are somewhat unique, as they are driven by emotions and trends. If a project lacks strong backing, users sending SOL to a specified address may risk losses from a potential rug pull by the project team. The success of BOME not only made it the focus of the market but also sparked a pre-sale frenzy within the Solana ecosystem, opening up market imagination for subsequent meme coins. The market value of meme coins subsequently doubled from $20 billion to $50 billion.

3-10 Months: Frequent Emergence of Golden Dogs, Yet No Growth in Market Value During the PvP Phase

In the second phase, the market value of meme coins stabilized at $50 billion, fluctuating around this level. The popularity of pump.fun in March made it easier to create and trade meme coins, allowing anyone to easily launch their own meme coin, which attracted a large number of investors and opened up the market scale. During this period, several golden dogs with market values exceeding $100 million emerged, such as BRETT, Neiro, MOODENG, and CHILLGUY, but the overall market value of meme coins did not show stable growth due to the emergence of wealth myths; the entire market remained in a zero-sum game state of PvP. In the absence of new narratives, the hype around memes shifted towards CTOs, TikTok influencers, and others.

Pump.fun was launched in January 2024 as a platform for issuing and trading meme coins on the Solana chain, emphasizing fair distribution. It quickly gained popularity in the community, riding the wave of meme coins, or rather, directly pushing the meme coin craze into a new phase.

According to Dune dashboard data provided by Hashed, the number of tokens deployed on the pump.fun platform gradually increased starting in March, with an average of about 10,000 new token deployments daily, and the total number of deployed tokens has now approached 1.8 million.

Token deployment volume on the pump.fun platform; Source: Dune

For project issuers, the participation threshold for Pump.fun is low, requiring only 0.02 SOL to launch a project (which has been changed to free token issuance since early August). Tokens can be listed quickly, and as long as they reach a market value of $60,000, they can rapidly enter Dex Raydium, at which point the first batch of buyers has already seen several times their returns.

For retail investors, tokens launched daily that follow hot trends represent the current mainstream meme culture, contrasting sharply with traditional VC projects. Due to the limited liquidity on the pump.fun platform and significant market value fluctuations, there are opportunities for massive profits, with many investors sharing legendary stories of turning 1 SOL into hundreds of times their investment, greatly stimulating market enthusiasm.

Related Reading: 《The Truth About Pump.fun: Average Daily Active Users of 50,000-70,000, Only 3% of Accounts Profited Over $1,000》

In July, the lowercase Neiro sounded the horn of victory for the community, being hailed as the first meme coin embodying the spirit of CTO.

Neiro was inspired by a real-life Shiba Inu of the same name, often referred to as the successor to DOGE. On July 31, just a week after its launch, the uppercase NEIRO was exposed by bubblemaps as a genuine conspiracy group, while the lowercase Neiro was more community-driven, initially remaining lukewarm until Vitalik publicly expressed support and donated over $500,000 to animal welfare funds, gradually boosting its price through community promotion.

In early September, Binance's listing announcement undoubtedly reignited the debate over uppercase and lowercase, as Binance announced the listing of uppercase NEIRO and lowercase Neiro just ten days apart. Ultimately, the market value of lowercase Neiro skyrocketed within just a few hours, from $20 million to over $120 million, while the price of uppercase NEIRO token quickly plummeted, dropping below $0.1 within a few hours, with a maximum daily decline exceeding 50%.

After the initial project team abandoned the project, Neiro was taken over by the community, and ultimately, the crypto community triumphed over the "conspiracy group." The victory of lowercase Neiro marked the first official recognition of community CTO power by Binance, showcasing the strong potential of community autonomy. Following this battle, Neiro was also dubbed the first meme coin embodying the spirit of CTO.

In September, moodeng sparked a trend of viral animal memes, relying on TikTok for widespread dissemination.

"Adorable" and "ugly-cute" have always been popular images among netizens and are enduring hot topics in the meme market. In September, a little hippo named Moo Deng went viral across the internet, becoming the headline of various media outlets. It was born in a Thai open zoo, Khao Kheow, and quickly gained fame on TikTok and Instagram due to its cute expressions and ugly-cute appearance.

The meme coin based on Moo Deng was launched on the Solana pump.fun platform, gaining immense popularity and affection, with its market value exceeding $100 million in just a few weeks. On November 15, after Binance announced the listing of the MOODENG contract, this meme coin surged over 100%.

The hippo MOO DENG enjoyed high popularity in foreign communities, receiving extensive media coverage in a short time. For a meme market already enthusiastic about cats and dogs, cute animals are inherently suitable for speculation, and the viral nature of platforms like TikTok and Instagram makes it easier for them to become phenomenon-level golden dogs.

Related Reading: 《A Hundredfold Increase in Ten Days: Hippo MooDeng Kicks Off the "Viral Animal Meme Trend"》

Although it seemed that the market was frequently generating hot topics during this period, there was a lack of genuine narratives to broaden the market. Many trends were digested by the first wave of PvP and lacked further growth momentum. In October of this year, BlockBeats conducted a behavioral survey of memecoin investors, with 274 investors participating. Although the scope was limited, it still provided insights into the current market state and retail investor sentiment.

From the results, about 40% of investors engage with more than three meme projects daily; in terms of investment amounts, 30% invest below 0.1 SOL, 30% fall within the 1-5 SOL range, and 13% invest over 5 SOL at a time.

In terms of profit and loss, only 40% of investors made money in the past month, but overall, most either made significant profits, small profits, or small losses, while those with large losses (over $1,000) accounted for only 20%. Regarding the current state of the meme market, the vast majority of investors agree that it is a game of information asymmetry, with nearly half believing it is pure gambling.

At the same time, another set of data from CashCashBot also highlighted similar issues. This data recorded the profit and loss and operational frequency of various addresses in October, showing that both regular and VIP users had high daily participation activity, but the overall average returns remained negative.

In terms of win rates, the average daily win rate for users was below 0.5 most of the time, with the highest daily win rate also below 0.6, and the lowest daily win rate around 0.42;

Average daily win rate for users; Source: CashCashBot

In terms of daily earnings, the left chart shows the average earnings for all users, indicating that most of the time, users' average daily earnings were negative, with the maximum positive earnings only around $25; the right chart displays the total earnings and total losses of VIP users, revealing that the total earnings and total losses trend lines are generally symmetrical around the zero scale, indicating that VIP users' net earnings are also close to zero, overall engaging in a zero-sum game. Some users told BlockBeats in interviews that they really liked the internal address analysis feature of CashCashBot, but due to severe market PvP, even with very handy tools, it was still challenging to achieve positive returns.

Left chart: Average daily net earnings for all users; Right chart: Daily total earnings and total losses for VIP users; Source: CashCashBot

In terms of trading frequency, users maintained an average of over 10 trades per day in October, with half the time exceeding 15 trades, indicating that users' frequency and willingness to participate in the market remained at a high level.

Average daily number of trades; Source: CashCashBot

The above data roughly outlines the profile of some retail investors, who wait for opportunities and frequently engage in PvP, but ultimately, those who succeed in making money remain a minority. There are few instances of significant gains or losses; the market generally only allows for small profits or small losses. Everyone struggles to find market patterns and can only rely on information asymmetry to increase their chances of winning in this "gamble."

October to December: AI Narrative + Binance's Frenzied Listing of Meme Coins, Significant Market Value Surge, Transition from PvP to PvE

After a six-month period of PvP, the market finally saw new growth momentum. The emergence of AI memes and AI Agents in October brought fresh narratives and limitless gameplay possibilities. In November, Binance listed the meme coins PNUT and ACT, and subsequently, Binance frantically listed meme coins, injecting massive liquidity into the meme market, pushing the market value from $50 billion to the $100 billion level. At the same time, the DeSci narrative emerged, and PvP finally shifted to PvE.

In October, AI agent memes gradually entered the market's view, igniting a new track of AI + meme.

This trend began with GOAT, which stands for Goatseus Maximus, developed by Andy Ayrey and supported by a16z. It was born from Truth Terminal, a token issued by an AI bot conducting multi-round deductions and self-talk.

With frequent promotions of Truth Terminal on Twitter, on October 10, an anonymous investor recognized the potential for widespread dissemination of this meme and launched GOAT on Pump.fun. The market value of GOAT peaked at $350 million within just a few days, and subsequently, due to intense official promotion and the wealth effect in the secondary market, GOAT's market value broke through $1.3 billion.

After GOAT's explosive rise, AI Agents began to emerge in large numbers, with different agents launching various tokens, developing different gameplay and functions to attract attention, and gradually perfecting application scenarios to build their ecosystems. For instance, ZEREBRO and AI16Z both announced plans to launch AI infrastructure using their tokens.

The rise of GOAT not only reflects the intersection of artificial intelligence, blockchain, and meme culture but also reveals the potential profound impact of AI on the crypto space. This phenomenon brought the combination of AI and memes back into the public eye, sparking widespread discussion and interest, and opening up possibilities for new tracks.

On November 11, Binance listed the meme coins PNUT and ACT, both of which surged 330% and 1440% respectively within the day, reigniting the meme market.

The squirrel image of PNUT originated from a squirrel named "Peanut," which was euthanized due to suspicions of carrying a virus. At that time, Dogecoin condemned the Democrats, and Musk mourned Peanut in a post, claiming that Trump's presidency would save Peanut. Subsequently, a large number of Peanut-related memes began to circulate online. From then on, Peanut began to accumulate a "Trump" political buff on the basis of the viral animal meme.

ACT Meme is a cryptocurrency that combines AI technology with blockchain, aiming to create an ecosystem themed around "AI and Meme." ACT has faced multiple betrayals from developers, which once brought significant negative impacts to its long-term development, but the community has never given up on building the ACT project.

The wealth miracles created by PNUT and ACT pushed market sentiment to a peak, and Binance subsequently frantically listed meme coins, rolling out tokens like HIPPO, DEGEN, BAN, SLERF, CHEEMS, WHY, and CHILLGUY within a month. The meme market became unprecedentedly hot, with abundant liquidity flooding in, doubling the overall market value of meme coins, which reached a peak of $137.1 billion on December 9.

Another wave of hotspots in November was DeSci. On November 8, Binance Labs announced an investment in BIO Protocol, stating that this investment marked Binance Labs' first foray into the decentralized science (DeSci) field. Less than a week after this announcement, CZ attended the DeSci Day event held by Binance in Bangkok and discussed DeSci insights with Vitalik.

Binance's investment spurred the rise of DeSci sector tokens. RIF and URO surged nearly 50 times within two days, reaching market values of $250 million and $160 million respectively, becoming the focus of market attention at that time. Following this, tokens related to Bio Protocol, supported by Binance Labs, surfaced, and meme coins related to the world's largest open-access paper platform, Sci-Hub, also joined the DeSci meme track. A grand narrative of decentralized science was launched, and the market was extremely hot, with many participants believing this track had potential comparable to AI memes.

Related Reading: 《Biological Experiment Meme Surges a Thousandfold in a Week, Hot Money Flows into DeSci》

This round of meme narratives has evolved from inscriptions, pre-sales, community CTOs, viral animal memes, to AI memes and DeSci, with innovative gameplay and narratives emerging one after another. It achieved two qualitative leaps in market value in March and November, nurturing popular tokens like BOME, SLERF, Neiro, MOODENG, PNUT, GOAT, and RIF, with the overall market value of meme coins growing fivefold from the beginning of the year.

After the brewing in the first quarter, the market explosion in March, and the subsequent six months of PvP, the listing effect of Binance in November finally injected massive liquidity into memes, finding new market increments. AI memes and AI agents, along with the combination of web3 and science in DeSci, opened up entirely new tracks for memes, broadening market imagination. Several tokens surged and gained attention, and the influx of leading investment institutions also demonstrated the infinite potential of the market.

In the future, memes will inevitably become an indispensable part of the entire Web3 ecosystem, continuing to create new myths. The meme phenomenon is on the rise, and the future is promising.

Chart Four: DEX vs. CEX Market Share

In July of this year, The Block released a data report showing that the market ratio of DEX to CEX spot trading volume reached 13.76% by mid-year, surpassing the 13.7% recorded in May 2023, setting a new historical high. In June, CEX trading volume was $1.11 trillion, while DEX trading volume during the same period was $123 billion. Just three months later, this figure doubled, reaching nearly $300 billion in October.

Since the DeFi Summer of 2020, the market ratio of DEX to CEX has maintained a strong growth trend, even during the deep bear market of 2023. Over the past four years, behind the continuous evolution of crypto narratives such as DeFi, Metaverse, NFT, GameFi, and DePIN, the market has consistently interpreted the underlying logic and eternal proposition of mass adoption: "From Web2 to CEX, and then from CEX to DEX."

In 2024, the core trend of industry development seems to have pressed the acceleration button, entering a critical stage of transformation from quantitative to qualitative change. According to data from a16z, the total number of active addresses in leading blockchains in the crypto market rapidly increased by the end of this year, soaring from 70 million in August to over 160 million, nearly a 20-fold increase compared to 2021.

Left: DEX vs. CEX Market Share, Right: Number of Active Addresses in Leading Public Chains; Data Source: The Block, a16z Crypto

On-Chain Asset Issuance Welcomes a New Spring

After experiencing two years of "blockchain surplus" market conditions, the crypto industry in 2024 has once again shifted into a comprehensive on-chain revival mode, sparking a new wave of growth in asset innovation and trading infrastructure.

The BRC-20 standard and the subsequent second wave of inscription fever at the end of 2023 shifted the main trading commodities in the crypto market from CEX to on-chain, from Bitcoin ecosystem's AUCTION, MUBI to Solana ecosystem's ZERO, NUTS, and Avalanche ecosystem's AVAV. The speculation around on-chain inscriptions attracted a large number of new users while bringing more active funds into the on-chain ecosystem.

Related Reading: 《Is the "Shovel Season" of 50 Days Coming to an End?》

Despite the rise of the Bitcoin ecosystem being accompanied by a strong "retro" vibe, the increasing market trading enthusiasm has also brought the ancient trading model of OTC into the public eye, giving birth to OTC pre-trading products on platforms like Whales Market and aevo. Interestingly, as commodity trading shifted from off-chain to on-chain, OKX "unexpectedly" became the biggest winner.

Left: Aevo, Right: Whales Market

In 2023, OKX quietly began to make strides in decentralized wallet products and quickly became a major trading platform in the inscription market. One of the most frequently heard phrases among crypto users at the beginning of this year was perhaps, "I have uninstalled MetaMask." After long-term investment and refinement, OKX surprisingly became the "chain abstraction product" with the smoothest interactive experience in the wallet track, attracting and nurturing a large number of new users by leveraging the popularity of the inscription market, while also rapidly capturing market share through word-of-mouth effects, leading to an explosive growth in user numbers starting in April, with an increase of over 130% in two months.

Related Reading:

《How OKX Became the Biggest Winner of BRC-20?》

《The Autumn of MetaMask's Survival》

By the end of 2023, the growth of OKX wallet addresses, Data Source: Dune Analytics

As market enthusiasm and capital continued to overflow, the concept of inscriptions reacted chemically with the meme culture of the Solana ecosystem, rapidly fermenting blockbuster innovative products like ZERO (Analysoor) and NUTS. The emergence of Pump.fun in May officially kicked off a frenzy of asset issuance and trading on the Solana chain, pushing the entire crypto industry into a state of asset explosion, with the market share of Solana's leading DEX, Raydium, rapidly increasing from 8% at the beginning of the year to nearly 20%. According to data from The Block, as of the time of writing, 80% of new tokens in the market were issued on the Solana chain.

Above: Proportion of New Token Issuance on Public Chains, Below: Pump.fun Fee Revenue; Data Source: The Block

Arms Race in Trading Infrastructure, "On-Chain Exit" is No Longer a Dream

Behind the hot issuance of on-chain assets is a new round of on-chain infrastructure explosion, with developers engaging in intense competition around the issuance, distribution, and trading of assets. On the Solana chain, the first battlefield was the "chain scanning tools" focused on asset information distribution.

After Analysoor and NUTS exploded in popularity, the momentum of the Solana ecosystem's meme market gradually rose, partly thanks to the traffic supply from the "early chain scanning platform" Birdeye. Many on-chain players began to look for trading opportunities based on the daily popular meme rankings on the Birdeye website, providing a distribution channel for more low-market-cap meme tokens to gain attention and liquidity.

Under the successive impacts of "super golden dogs" like SILLY, BOME, and SLERF, the meme market on the Solana chain was completely ignited. To compete for traffic dividends, established token analysis tools like Dexscreener and DEXTool began to optimize for popular public chains like Solana, Base, and Sui, further enhancing the efficiency of asset information distribution. The explosion of meme coins brought attention, competition among information platforms improved distribution efficiency, and more attention and liquidity entered the market, thus initially forming the "heat flywheel" of the meme market.

Left: Birdeye, Right: Dexscreener

After the rise of Pump.fun in May, on-chain players began to have more demand for token information, at which point the original token analysis tools came into play. The market share of established websites like Dexscreener and DEXTool quickly rebounded and gradually replaced Birdeye. Subsequently, GMGN emerged, packaging on-chain data into trading signals, with features like insider trading, large holder positions, KOL holdings, and smart money movements, further narrowing the information gap among traders and accelerating changes in meme market gameplay and trading rhythm, becoming the most relied-upon tool for many meme players during their "chain scanning."

Related Reading: 《Interview with "Hundredfold Coin Discovery Platform" GMGN: Meme is the "New Retail Era" of Asset Issuance》

Another hotter front is in the field of Telegram trading bots. Since the birth of Unibot and Banana Gun last year, "TG Bot" has rapidly entered the mainstream from a niche track. In February, Delphi Digital analyzed the profit mechanisms and growth potential of TG Bots like Maestro, UniBot, and Banana Gun in a report on trading bots, providing a very optimistic conclusion. Six months later, Banana Gun's monthly trading volume exceeded $740 million, with monthly revenue of $4.64 million.

Related Reading: 《Behind Binance's Listing of $BANANA, TGBot Becomes the Next Battleground for Trading Platforms》

As the competition among TG Bots heated up in the Solana ecosystem, products like BullX, Trojan, and Photon, which pursued extreme trading speed, rushed into the market one after another. By the peak in November, the daily trading volume of TG Bots even approached $500 million.

It has been proven that meme coins have already occupied a considerable share of the CEX trading market. For most of the fourth quarter of this year, half of the top ten cryptocurrencies by 24-hour trading volume on Binance were MEME tokens. The total daily trading volume of meme coins like PEPE, DOGE, and WIF could reach $3.454 billion, even surpassing SOL itself. In contrast, the price performance and wealth effect of "VC coins" in mainstream CEXs were disappointing, and "on-chain exit" became an option that many mid- to low-market-cap projects had to consider.

Above: Top On-Chain Products by Revenue Ranking, Below: Proportion of Daily Trading Volume of TG Bots; Data Source: BlockBeats OPRR, Dune Analytics

Interestingly, in addition to the "heat flywheel," the arms race in on-chain asset distribution and trading efficiency has also helped participants complete a commercial closed loop. To facilitate users in completing a one-stop interactive experience for target discovery, information acquisition, and token trading on the platform, platforms like GMGN and ABot (formerly NFT Sniper) have integrated trading APIs into their token analysis systems.

This exploration has opened a new trend of integrated token analysis + trading bots, with subsequent platforms like Cash Cash Bot and DEXX optimizing the experience of combining token information and trading, even leading to the emergence of the promotional slogan "On-Chain Binance." By generating additional revenue through API fees, they have changed the previous monetization model of token analysis tools that relied mainly on advertising. According to Dune data, during the peak of meme trading in November, the daily trading volume completed through the GMGN API reached a maximum of $90 million, while the average daily revenue generated by GMGN through API fees that month was nearly $400,000.

GMGN Platform Revenue; Data Source: Dune Analytics

Of course, the process of on-chain defeating off-chain cannot be accomplished overnight. In the world of blockchain, no one can break the impossible triangle. While TG Bots pursue scale and speed, the security of user funds is often sacrificed. In November, DEXX experienced a user asset theft incident, resulting in total losses amounting to tens of millions of dollars. After obtaining the stolen assets, hackers sold them off in large quantities, leading to a collapse in the on-chain meme market and directly affecting the duration of market liquidity prosperity.

Comprehensive Explosion of DEX

The arms race in trading infrastructure in 2024 is not limited to the meme token field; the Perp DEX, which failed to rise in the last round, as well as new-generation DEX logic like CLOB (Central Limit Order Book) and intent trading are also experiencing a comprehensive explosion. In the fourth quarter of this year, Hyperliquid continuously set historical price highs after the token TGE, breaking into the top 50 in crypto market capitalization in just two weeks, even surpassing its "old parent" Arbitrum, sweeping the entire attention market in the industry.

Hyperliquid Platform Capital Inflow; Data Source: Dune Analytics

Behind the new highs, Hyperliquid's success is inseparable from its precise "market aesthetics." By keenly capturing the market pulse of the current cycle where "VC coins are facing obstacles," and refusing to take the path of financing and cashing out, the team has also excelled in building low-latency, high-throughput infrastructure and high-frequency trading products. Of course, Hyperliquid's most innovative aspect remains its unique token listing mechanism.

Hyperliquid uses a Dutch auction to auction the ticker of tokens, with a public and transparent listing process. If a project wants to launch a spot market, it must apply for the deployment rights of the HIP-1 native token, after which a Dutch auction mechanism will determine who ultimately gets the token ticker.

Recently, some mainstream CEXs have been caught in the whirlpool of "listing fees." In the centralized and opaque listing market dominated by CEXs, crypto projects often have to spend huge costs on "listing." Hyperliquid offers a more economical solution, catering to the immediate need for launching on major exchanges while allowing for low-cost listings on decent trading platforms to "secure a spot." After the subsequent integration of HyperEVM, tokens purchased on Hyperliquid can be used in other EVMs, further highlighting its relative advantage in cost-effectiveness for token listings.

Related Reading: 《Behind the $6 Billion Valuation, Hyperliquid Attempts to Restructure the Token Listing Landscape in the Crypto Industry》

Comparison of Perp DEX Market Share (Top) and Weekly Trading Volume (Bottom), with the light green section representing Hyperliquid; Data Source: Dune Analytics

Another encouraging on-chain development comes from CowSwap. After Binance listed COW spot, CowSwap and its representative intent narrative have once again gained popularity.

Due to differing views on trading matching methods such as AMM and order books, DeFi protocols have gradually evolved into two technical development directions: one represented by Uniswap with on-chain LP trading pairs, and the other represented by CowSwap with on-chain + off-chain order book settlement.

Unlike Uniswap, which calculates the final trading price in liquidity pools using "x*y=k," CowSwap users sign specific trading intentions (such as price, target, and quantity) on-chain, and then the remaining work is handled by the protocol's "solver" through a combination of on-chain and off-chain methods.

Related Reading: 《On-chain Revenue Beyond MEV, You Can Also Hail a Ride on Everclear》

Although the "on-chain + off-chain" solution may not sound very "Crypto Native," it indeed brings significant improvements in user experience. The order book and off-chain batch processing trading methods allow the protocol to aggregate on-chain LP pools, counterparty liquidity, market maker's own funds, and liquidity from CEXs, resulting in faster trading speeds and less slippage. Users do not even need to prepare Gas tokens for transactions, leading to an extremely smooth experience.

Recently, CowSwap was designated as the DEX for the Trump DeFi project WLFI to purchase on-chain assets, once again drawing attention. It is foreseeable that in the ongoing process of mass adoption in the on-chain world, intent infrastructure represented by CowSwap will play an increasingly important role.

Chart Five: Proportion of Pro-Crypto Legislators in the U.S. Congress

In Q4 of 2024, with Trump winning the U.S. election with an overwhelming 270 votes and returning to the White House after four years, BTC ended a six-month period of volatility and began to soar. In the golden window period following regulatory relaxation, the off-chain sector welcomed an unprecedented "institutional bull market."

To win this election, Trump aggressively courted crypto industry figures and became a staunch Bitcoin advocate during this year's campaign. At the Bitcoin 2024 conference held in Nashville in July, Trump mentioned that if he were to win, he would implement a series of pro-crypto policies to ensure that the U.S. becomes the world's crypto center and a Bitcoin superpower. These promises included firing the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, appointing a cryptocurrency presidential advisory council, and designating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve for the U.S.

Related Reading: 《Trump Becomes the First "Bitcoin President" in U.S. History》

Not only did Trump become the first Bitcoin president, but Congress also saw a wave of pro-crypto officials taking office.

After Trump won the election, many industry insiders began to hold an optimistic view of clearer and more supportive regulatory policies for the future of the industry. However, what truly excited institutions and various practitioners about crypto, and could fundamentally reverse the pressure cryptocurrencies face in U.S. politics, is the upcoming new "pro-crypto Congress."

The Era of "Crypto Gold" in U.S. Politics

According to data from Stand With Crypto, in this election, a total of 261 pro-crypto candidates won seats in the House of Representatives, while only 116 representatives opposed cryptocurrencies. At the same time, the new Senate is also more inclined to support cryptocurrencies, with 17 supporters and 12 opponents.

Additionally, in this unprecedented "Bitcoin election," the influence of crypto companies was also significant. In 2024, crypto companies became major contributors to political donations in the U.S. Coinbase and Ripple were the largest corporate political donors this year, contributing nearly 48% of the total corporate donations. Fairshake, a super PAC founded in 2023 by former New York Governor's aide Josh Vlasto, has raised over $200 million to support pro-crypto candidates, becoming the highest-spending PAC in this election cycle.

Related Reading: 《With $40 Million Helping the Republicans Secure the Senate, the Crypto Industry Bought Half of Congress in This Election》

Fairshake aims to elect pro-crypto candidates and combat skeptical opponents, receiving support from companies like Coinbase, Ripple, and Andreessen Horowitz. This funding not only influences presidential candidates' policies but also drives congressional election strategies that support cryptocurrencies.

A typical example occurred in March this year when progressive Democratic star Katie Porter raised over $30 million in the California Senate election and was expected to win. However, because she adopted Elizabeth Warren's political stance and had previously aligned with Harris on banking regulation issues, Fairshake viewed her as an "ally of the anti-crypto movement."

During the California primary, Fairshake spent over $10 million opposing Porter, undermining her support among young voters. Through Hollywood billboards and targeted messaging, Fairshake claimed Porter misled voters into supporting pro-corporate legislation. As a result, her campaign funding was affected, and she ultimately failed to advance to the fall election.

After the dust settled from the election, Musk emerged as the biggest winner aside from Trump and the Republican Party.

In his national address on election night, Trump spent a significant amount of time thanking Musk. Recently, Musk invested over $130 million, along with considerable time and tweets, supporting conservative politics. Trump particularly praised Musk's rocket company SpaceX and its Starlink internet satellites, saying, "We must protect these super geniuses." During the campaign, Trump also revealed that at Musk's request, he would establish a "government efficiency" position specifically to support the tech entrepreneur.

Musk is known for opposing government interference, always pointing out excessive government intervention whenever faced with fines or penalties. Therefore, it is not surprising that he allied with Trump, who promised to relax regulations. In addition to potentially reduced government oversight, Musk's alliance with Trump could also help him secure more federal contracts. According to The New York Times, over the past decade, SpaceX and Tesla have received at least $15.4 billion in government contracts. According to Reuters, Musk's colleagues and government officials indicated that the billionaire's support for Trump was also aimed at better protecting his companies from regulation and ensuring government subsidies.

After Trump announced Musk would lead the Department of Government Efficiency, Musk posted a DOGE logo image on his personal Twitter, Source: Musk's Twitter

On the morning of November 13 at 9:30 AM, Trump issued a statement announcing the appointment of Elon Musk to lead the Department of Government Efficiency (abbreviated as "DOGE") to eliminate government bureaucracy, reduce excessive regulation, cut wasteful spending, and reorganize federal agencies. Subsequently, Musk also released the logo for the Department of Government Efficiency, stating, "Let's make government more fun."

Related Reading: 《How $50 Billion in Dogecoin Helped Musk Enter a New U.S. Government Department》

Since then, the crypto industry has stepped into the spotlight, becoming a core force in U.S. politics.

Institutions Lead the Market: Revival of Old Coins and the Renaissance of DeFi

With the involvement of institutions, ISO20022 series tokens led by XLM, IOTA, and HBAR have begun to take off. The bull market in the second half of the year is fundamentally different from the logic of the first half. In the first half, driven by favorable ETF news, the market followed the hype around meme coins and AI, resulting in "hot coins" significantly outperforming other tokens. In the second half, Trump brought a spring breeze of compliance to crypto, and ISO 20022, as the standard for electronic data exchange between financial institutions, encompasses the financial information transmitted between them. ISO 20022 is more advanced than the traditional formats used by banks, supporting larger data volumes and faster processing rates. Tokens that comply with ISO 20022 will be prioritized for international payments. Consequently, institutions began to engage in large-scale accumulation, and compliant assets frequently topped the gainers' list.

ISO20022 Migration Timeline, Source: Cryptopolitan

Related Reading: 《How Did "Zombie Coins" Suddenly Come Back to Life?》

If Trump initiated the institutional bull market, then DeFi has also become the field that traditional old money can most easily access. The most representative example is World Liberty Financial (WLFI), closely related to Trump.

WLFI was officially launched in September this year, claiming to be a DeFi platform unrelated to Trump himself. However, on WLFI's official website, Trump is listed as the "Chief Crypto Advocate," while his son Donald Trump Jr., Eric Trump, and Barron Trump hold the title of "Ambassador."

Since November of this year, WLFI has been aggressively purchasing various mainstream and emerging crypto assets through a major wallet address. In addition to leading crypto assets like BTC and ETH, WLFI's wallet purchased LINK at an average price of 25.5, AAVE at an average price of 324.4, ENA at an average price of 1 dollar, and ONDO at an average price of 1.86 dollars.

WLFI Wallet's Crypto Assets, Source: Arkham

It can be seen that even after experiencing several pullbacks following a breakthrough of 100,000 and a significant drop influenced by hawkish Fed rate cut news, as of December 19, the tokens procured by WLFI still showed strong performance over a 30-day trend. The involvement of the U.S. President has instilled confidence in all investors and institutions. Even after a brief decline, these tokens are likely to rebound strongly due to strong market consensus. Some alert institutional investors have already begun to "copy" Trump's trades, such as ArkStream Capital, which placed a significant bet on Ethena after Trump's election and reaped substantial rewards.

Related Reading: 《ArkStream Capital: Why Did We Invest in Ethena After Trump Took Office?》

In the aftermath of the election, market funds and attention have begun to focus on these institutional maneuvers. The Grayscale concept, which dominated the crypto space in 2021, is making a comeback, and the Coinbase 50 index has become a benchmark for secondary investments. In a "money-making time" environment, how to select tokens with the highest gains to maximize fund utilization has become the most important lesson in secondary trading. Which altcoins can outperform the market average? Instead of following KOLs' calls, it might be better to let Grayscale and Coinbase do the work for you.

Taking Grayscale's DeFi fund as an example, this fund is one of the first to invest in a basket of decentralized finance applications in the form of securities, including assets like UNI, AAVE, LDO, MKR, and SNX. The tokens in these DeFi funds performed well after the election, with NAV per share soaring from $13 to $35.

Grayscale DeFi Fund List and Token Performance, Source: Grayscale Official Website

Similarly, Grayscale's decentralized AI fund and mainstream coin funds have also performed excellently. In addition to Grayscale, Coinbase has also begun to actively position itself in the crypto industry. "Top-tier companies set standards, second-tier companies build brands, and third-tier companies make products." With the aim of benchmarking against the S&P and Nasdaq, Coinbase has created the COIN50 index, composed of high-quality cryptocurrencies in the top 50 by market cap, weighted accordingly to establish a world-class digital asset benchmark index. Tokens in the Coin50 index have also become a crypto barometer.

The COIN50 index achieved a return of 68.30% in the 30 days following its launch, with a 90-day return of 99.64%. Even with BTC and ETH accounting for 70% of the weight, such astonishing returns were still realized. This highlights how exaggerated the returns of other crypto assets within this index are, aside from large-cap coins like BTC and ETH.

Coin50 Index, Grayscale Trust Fund, and WLFI Crypto Asset Collection, Image from the Internet

Looking ahead to 2025, we can foresee that with the emergence of mainstream coin ETFs and crypto indices, will there be altcoin ETFs? In the traditional financial market, the first ETF, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, was listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 1993. From 2000 to 2009, the U.S. ETF market rapidly expanded, forming a diverse range of asset classes, including broad-based, sector-themed, Smart Beta, fixed income, and commodity ETFs. The crypto market is still in its early stages compared to the already mature traditional financial market, so it is reasonable to expect that U.S. institutions will further position themselves in altcoin ETFs and indices.

In 2024, Bitcoin's fourth halving cycle will perfectly conclude with the institutional bull market following Trump's election!

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。