Apart from losses and theft, every bull market has seemingly "tempting" "gold mines" that can lead you to ruin—
This weekend, I recommend a movie starring Matthew McConaughey called "Gold," which left me deeply shocked!
The film is based on real events that occurred in the 1990s—the Bre-X scandal.
The main storyline is simple: it tells the story of a prospector and a geologist searching for gold in the jungles of Indonesia, showcasing how their discovery triggered madness and fraud in the business world.
After watching, you may gain new insights into human nature and business logic. I particularly liked a line from the movie: "No one cares about the truth; everyone only cares about whether they can make money!"
Understanding this line helps you grasp why the Luna incident occurred and why FTX suddenly collapsed!
Human nature dictates that groups will chase profits, blindly follow trends, and ignore risks and truths.
1️⃣ The Discrepancy Between Appearance and Reality
Luna Collapse: A Myth Built on Air
In the Luna ecosystem, the UST stablecoin and Luna token were packaged into a "decentralized financial innovation" model through an algorithmic stabilization mechanism. This attracted a massive influx of funds, with investors firmly believing it was a "foolproof" system, completely ignoring potential risks (such as the fact that algorithmic stablecoins rely on market confidence rather than actual asset backing).
However, when market confidence collapsed, this mechanism crumbled like a house of cards.
FTX Explosion: The Collapse of Trust
FTX's rise largely depended on SBF's personal image. He was portrayed as a genius entrepreneur and "crypto savior," using charitable ideals (Effective Altruism) and specialized operations to cover up financial loopholes. Investors, institutions, and even global media blindly idolized this image without deeply analyzing FTX's financial status and operational risks.
2️⃣ Investors Only Care About Returns
Luna investors focused on the high returns of the "Anchor Protocol" (up to 20% annualized returns) while ignoring the fatal flaws inherent in the Luna ecosystem.
Many institutions made substantial investments in FTX but rarely conducted thorough financial due diligence, being more attracted by market trends and SBF's "story."
The frenzied investment environment and explosive returns led people to overlook the necessity of calm judgment; everyone was willing to selectively believe, even when faced with basic errors, and would not question!
This is the best embodiment of losing independent thought in the group!
3️⃣ Core Reflection: The Cost of Ignoring the Truth
Before the Luna collapse, there were many voices questioning the sustainability of its mechanism, but these voices were often drowned out by market frenzy. Just like in the movie, greed in the market led people to selectively ignore the truth.
When FTX finally exploded, its actual fund misappropriation and financial issues were exposed, with billions of dollars in user assets unrecoverable. This event directly struck a blow to the trust in the entire crypto industry.
However, investors, institutions, and even the media failed to deeply question the logic behind these projects, and even those who questioned were attacked, leading to fewer and fewer voices.
Everyone only saw short-term benefits, rather than the real value and risks.
Whether it was Luna's "high return myth" or FTX's "top exchange," these stories exploited people's desire for wealth and blind worship of technological innovation, obscuring the risks behind them.
During the market frenzy, the truth is not important; maximizing profits is the primary goal. However, when the bubble bursts, everyone pays a heavy price for ignoring the truth.
4️⃣ Lessons Learned from These Events:
- Do not blindly chase high returns
High returns often come with high risks; any project claiming to be "foolproof" requires in-depth analysis of its underlying logic and sustainability.
- Stay vigilant and think independently
Whether it’s the personal image (SBF) or complex mechanisms (Luna), blind faith can easily lead to collective conformity. Calmly analyzing the truth is essential to avoid being manipulated by market emotions.
- The truth ultimately matters
Even if the truth is ignored in the short term, it will eventually surface. Projects based on lies and opaque operations cannot sustain themselves.
As revealed in the movie "Gold," people's desire for money can cloud their rationality, but the truth is always there, waiting to be uncovered.
Most people, when faced with opportunities, often prioritize short-term benefits while ignoring the risks and factual truths.
In the movie, whether capitalists, shareholders, or the market itself, almost no one is willing to take the time to verify the authenticity of the "gold mine"; they only care about whether they can get a piece of the pie in this frenzy.
The crypto space is no different; most people do not care about the truth at all; having returns is the most important thing. They are more willing to hand over millions to a seemingly "gold mine," making independent thinking particularly crucial at this time!
5️⃣ Finally, I leave you with two topics to ponder—
1) Luna and FTX are not the first to explode, and they certainly won't be the last. Every bull market will have black swans and seemingly tempting "gold mines." This round may already be on the way; which one do you think it will be?
2) If it were you, how would you avoid falling into the "greed and deception" cycle depicted in the movie "Gold"?
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