The U.S. Department of Labor released the latest data last night, showing that for the week ending December 21, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 219,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week, and below the expected 224,000, marking the lowest level in nearly a month. This indicates a cooling labor market, but companies are still avoiding large-scale layoffs, which also suggests that the Federal Reserve may not proceed with further interest rate cuts.

Currently, the overall unemployment rate in the U.S. stands at 4.2%. Based on data from the past decade, although the labor market is showing signs of weakness, the unemployment situation remains relatively mild, with no signs of deterioration.

The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts in January next year, with a 91.4% probability of keeping the federal benchmark interest rate unchanged in the current range of 4.25% to 4.5%, consistent with predictions from a week ago.

After the U.S. employment data was released last night, the U.S. stock market and Bitcoin did not show significant reactions. As 2024 approaches, inflation in the U.S. is nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, and the economy continues to grow, with the labor market showing resilience. Therefore, economists expect the risk of a U.S. economic recession to decrease, and a soft landing may be achievable.

In the cryptocurrency sector, Bitcoin experienced a rapid decline yesterday afternoon, dropping from $98,500 to around $95,500, resulting in many long positions being liquidated. As of the time of writing, the price has rebounded to $96,887, up 1.1% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin 4-Hour Chart

First, according to the Bollinger Bands indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the current price is fluctuating near the middle band, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase in the short term. The upper and lower bands are showing an expanding trend, suggesting that volatility will increase in the future. If the price continues to break above the upper band, it will enter a strong bullish trend. Conversely, if it falls below the lower band, it will continue to decline.

Second, based on the KDJ indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, all three KDJ lines are operating in the low oversold region, with the J line showing signs of turning upward, indicating a potential rebound after being oversold. If the K line successfully crosses above the D line to form a golden cross, it will further confirm the rebound trend; otherwise, caution is still needed regarding the possibility of price decline.

Finally, according to the MACD indicator on the Bitcoin 4H chart, the DIF line is about to cross above the DEA line at a low level, forming a golden cross pattern, suggesting that there may be further rebound potential in the short term. The MACD green histogram is gradually shortening, indicating that bearish momentum is weakening, which also confirms the rebound signal.

In summary, the current indicators suggest a potential short-term rebound, especially as the golden cross signals from MACD and KDJ are gradually emerging. Important resistance levels to watch are 97,000-99,000, and support levels are 94,000-95,000.

Based on the above, the following suggestions are provided for reference:

Long Bitcoin near 96,300, targeting 97,500-98,000, with a stop loss at 95,800.

Long Ethereum near 3,400, targeting 3,500-3,550, with a stop loss at 3,355.

Instead of giving you a 100% accurate suggestion, I prefer to provide you with the right mindset and trend. After all, teaching someone to fish is better than giving them a fish; suggestions may earn you a moment, but learning the mindset can earn you a lifetime! The focus is on the mindset, grasping the trend, and planning positions. What I can do is use my practical experience to help everyone, guiding your investment decisions and management in the right direction.

Writing time: (2024-12-27, 17:45)

(Written by - Daxian Talks Coins) Disclaimer: Online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. The author is dedicated to research and analysis in the investment fields of Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, foreign exchange, stocks, etc., with years of experience in the financial market and rich practical operation experience. Investment carries risks; please proceed with caution. For more real-time market analysis, please follow the official account Daxian Talks Coins for discussion and exchange.

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