Reviewing the cryptocurrency predictions of various institutions for 2024: True prophets or face-slapping moments?

Original Authors: Scof, ChainCatcher

Original Editors: Nianqing, ChainCatcher

Correction Time - This article provides a one-stop review of the hot predictions and actual performances in the crypto industry for 2024. Let's see how many of the market predictions made by top research institutions like Binance Labs, Coinbase Venture, a16z, Messari, Pantera Capital, etc., came true last year. After all, their predictions for this year have also been released.

Predictions are a battle of intellect and vision, while the market provides answers through harsh realities. Get ready, let's take a look at the crypto landscape of this year!

❌ Represents that the prediction is incorrect or not entirely accurate

☑️ Represents that the prediction is correct

⭕️ Represents that it is not entirely accurate and there is room for discussion

Binance Labs

2024 Predictions:

⭕️ The Bitcoin narrative remains at the forefront, with expectations for the Ordinals and BRC-20 ecosystems to further develop

☑️ Decentralized physical network infrastructure (DePin) continues to develop

☑️ Decentralized social media (DeSoc) continues to develop

☑️ Increased integration of artificial intelligence (AI)

☑️ Growth of real-world assets (RWA)

❌ Liquidity management and request for quote (RFQ) systems thrive

☑️ More institutions join the crypto space

☑️ Account abstraction becomes more important

Summary:

Overall, the market validated most of Binance Research's predictions for 2024, especially in trends like AI integration, institutional participation, and tokenization of real-world assets. Although the Bitcoin ecosystem, including Ordinals and BRC-20, had a good start at the beginning of 2024, it did not develop as expected with the continuous record-breaking Bitcoin prices; instead, it was forgotten by the market amid sector rotations and fell into silence. Additionally, the "further development" of decentralized social media (DeSoc) is somewhat true, as new stars like Farcaster, UXLINK, and CyberConnect emerged, while Friend.Tech experienced a fall from grace and stagnation. Compared to other sectors, the development of the decentralized sector still faces many controversies and challenges.

Coinbase Venture

2024 Predictions:

☑️ Bitcoin continues to dominate the market, with institutional investment focused on Bitcoin

☑️ The macroeconomic environment supports cryptocurrencies

☑️ Web3 applications continue to develop, bridging the gap between early adopters and mainstream users

☑️ Tokenization and asset digitization attract traditional financial institutions

☑️ Decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN) and decentralized computing rise

☑️ Progress in regulation and legislation promotes institutional participation

☑️ More user-friendly experiences and technological innovations

Summary:

These predictions are largely consistent with current market dynamics, especially the dominance of Bitcoin and the increase in institutional investment, which have already manifested in 2024. Macroeconomically, due to the Trump administration's inauguration and the realization of interest rate cut expectations, cryptocurrencies have gradually become investment targets for traditional institutions.

Coinbase's Outlook for 2025 has been released -

a16z

2024 Predictions:

☑️ Technological advancements improving user experience

☑️ Increased value of modular technology

☑️ Potential of AI and blockchain integration

☑️ Shift from "play-to-earn" to "play-and-earn"

❌ Popularity of NFTs as brand assets

❌ Maturity of SNARKs technology

Summary:

It is clear that a16z misjudged the development of NFTs this year. NFTs faced what could be described as their darkest hour this year, as luxury brand NFTs peaked during the last bull market. Additionally, compared to last year, the decline of Layer 2 and cross-chain bridges amid the meme craze has led to minimal discussion about project fundamentals and pure technology in the entire crypto market. The popularization of SNARKs technology faces challenges, but overall, the industry will continue to develop in a more operable, participatory, and diversified direction.

a16z's Outlook for 2025 has been released -

Messari

2024 Predictions:

☑️ Optimistic outlook for emerging narratives

Messari holds an optimistic view on emerging narratives such as DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network), AI, DeSoc (Decentralized Society), and DeSci (Decentralized Science), while strongly favoring the combination of AI and cryptocurrencies, believing these directions will continue to connect the Web3 concept with the social and technological fields of the real world.

❌ Development potential of DeSoc (Decentralized Social)

❌ Circle may go public in 2024

☑️ Rise of DeSci (Decentralized Science)

☑️ Bearish on Ethereum, as it does not have an overwhelming advantage compared to Solana

Summary:

As a well-established research institution, Messari did not disappoint, accurately hitting the mark with the "AI agent" sector, which has had multiple standout performances this year, while also showing favor towards the DeSci sector, which had not yet heated up last year. Furthermore, their speculation on Solana and ETH as the "king of public chains" has been strongly validated by the market, with SOL's strong performance this year being evident, leading many to question the future bull market prices of the Ethereum ecosystem. Unfortunately, their judgment on DeSoc slightly deviated from reality, as DeSoc failed to successfully replicate the "DeFi Summer" craze of 2022.

Messari's Outlook for 2025 has been released -

Pantera Capital

Related Reading: [Pantera Capital: 2024 Crypto Outlook]

2024 Predictions:

❌ Bitcoin's revival and "DeFi Summer 2.0"

☑️ Rise of tokenized social experiences

☑️ Increase in TradFi-DeFi "bridges" such as stablecoins and mirrored assets

☑️ Combination of modular blockchains and zero-knowledge proofs (ZKP)

❌ On-chain computation-intensive applications

☑️ Integration and application chain models in the blockchain ecosystem

☑️ Areas to watch in 2024 - Artificial Intelligence: Merging human and computer intelligence

Summary:

Like many other institutions, Pantera Capital misjudged the trajectory of the Bitcoin ecosystem, influenced by the strong performance of inscriptions and Bitcoin's second-layer narratives in 2023. 2024 can be called a year for Bitcoin (with its gains far exceeding most altcoins), but even though the Bitcoin ecosystem has shown good growth, it cannot be called "DeFi Summer 2.0." Notably, as people realize the substantial profits in the stablecoin business, TradFi-DeFi is expected to see good growth in 2024. Additionally, like other institutions, Pantera also accurately predicted a significant explosion and growth of AI in 2024.

OKX Venture

Related Reading: [OKX Ventures 2024 Bitcoin Outlook Report]

2024 Predictions:

⭕️ BTC expansion and application explosion, increasing on-chain activity enhances network security

☑️ Ethereum's Cancun upgrade improves Layer 2 usability, leading the industry forward

☑️ Alt-layer1 ecosystems represented by Solana will benefit from industry recovery

☑️ AI narratives closely integrate with Web3 technology, leading to the emergence of new applications

❌ New paradigm of explosive chain games, FOCG (Fully Onchain Game) single-point breakthroughs

☑️ DePIN continues to maintain high growth

☑️ Macroeconomic environment improves, entering a new era of crypto

Summary:

From this year's overall performance, OKX Venture's expectations for blockchain games were still overly optimistic. The FOCG paradigm projects failed to show significant growth, and GameFi continues to only shout the slogan of being "the easiest to attract traffic" without substantial user growth. Additionally, the performance of DePin projects this year can only be considered passable, with some noteworthy projects, but the volatility of profitability and potential privacy issues remain two major challenges to be addressed. Overall, there is still significant research space on how the crypto field can attract more user participation from Web 2.

OKX Venture's outlook for 2025 has been released—

Blockworks

2024 Predictions:

☑️ The Rise of Solana:

Solana's market capitalization may approach or even surpass Ethereum, generating significant wealth effects in the NFT and DeFi sectors.

Multiple rounds of airdrops and at least ten unicorn companies will emerge within the Solana ecosystem.

☑️ The Evolution of Ethereum:

Developer activity and connectivity on Ethereum will further enhance, with narratives shifting from "supersonic currency" to other directions.

Ethereum's L2 technology will develop, but interoperability issues may remain unresolved in 2024.

❌ The Prosperity of the NFT Market:

NFTs will see growth due to wealth effects and capital inflows, with some series (like Mad Lads) potentially reaching a floor price of $100,000 each.

JPEG investments will become a significant trend in the first and second quarters of 2024.

☑️ The Revival of Bitcoin:

The launch of Bitcoin's L2 will drive activity in DeFi and other ecosystems, potentially breaking historical highs.

Bitcoin ETFs may be approved in early 2024, but their market impact remains unclear.

☑️ The Future of DeFi:

New DeFi projects and activities will emerge in the Solana and Ethereum ecosystems.

The popularity of staking may bring security and vulnerability issues.

☑️ Artificial Intelligence and Cryptocurrency:

AI-related tokens will reach a frenzy peak in 2024, with market capitalization potentially exceeding $100 billion.

The Link Between Cryptocurrency and Traditional Markets:

❌ Coinbase will further transform into a bank-like institution, with a valuation potentially exceeding $100 billion.

☑️ The U.S. will re-emerge as a center for crypto activity in 2024, alternating leadership with Asia.

❌ The Potential of Gaming and Social Finance:

Gaming will become an important catalyst for retail participation in cryptocurrency. Social finance and music NFTs may become new market hotspots.

Blockworks' Outlook for 2025 has been released—

Blockworks Co-Founder’s 27 Predictions for 2025: The U.S. Becomes a Crypto Hub, Base Will Be a Major Competitor to Solana

Summary:

Blockworks' predictions for the 2024 crypto market have been partially validated. The strong rise of Solana indeed aligns with predictions, with its market capitalization significantly increasing and bringing wealth effects in the meme sector. However, despite Solana's excellent performance in certain metrics, the prediction that its market capitalization would approach or surpass Ethereum has not yet materialized.

The NFT market showed some signs of recovery in the second half of the year, but the anticipated "JPEG wave" did not create the expected surge, with only a few high-end NFT series successfully attracting significant attention. AI-related tokens did indeed spark a wave of enthusiasm, but many tokens still appear overvalued; the combination of AI and crypto currently resembles more of a financing tool, with a considerable distance from true technological implementation. Furthermore, while DeFi activity has increased, the anticipated security issues related to staking have not erupted as expected, and the maturity of the technology still requires further time for validation.

IOBC Capital

Related Reading: IOBC Capital: 10 Predictions for 2024

2024 Predictions:

☑️ Approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs may bring in over $30 billion in incremental funds.

❌ The total market capitalization of inscriptions in the Bitcoin ecosystem may reach over $20 billion, with only truly Fair Launch leading MEME projects having medium to long-term consensus.

☑️ Bitcoin Layer 2 will see rapid development, benefiting Bitcoin ecosystem application infrastructure.

❌ Ethereum Layer 2 TVL will surpass Ethereum Layer 1, potentially reaching $100 billion.

☑️ The TVL of ZK Rollups still cannot compete with Optimistic Rollups, but the zk modular combinations of Ethereum Layer 2 components will become more complete.

☑️ Layerzero will launch its token in the first half of the year, likely igniting the entire chain sector.

⭕️ The new narrative of Parallel EVM will drive secondary growth for chains like Sei v2.

⭕️ The market size of DePIN may grow tenfold.

❌ There may be popular Autonomous World / Fully on-chain games with strong social attributes.

☑️ Star cases of AI and crypto integration will emerge in multiple application scenarios.

Summary:

IOBC Capital's predictions for 2024 are comprehensive and bold, accurately forecasting this year's ETF trends and AI trends, but their views on Bitcoin Layer 2 and the entire chain gaming sector seem somewhat optimistic.

The rune market in the first half of 2024 briefly continued the enthusiasm of last year's Bitcoin inscription ecosystem, but the harsh reality of "halving and halving again" soon followed; many public chains in Ethereum Layer 2 did not gain user acceptance, with a significant gap between TVL and the Ethereum mainnet, peaking at $55.3 billion in December; Layerzero experienced TGE mid-year, but the process was fraught with difficulties. Due to the market's downturn, although the entire chain sector continues to accelerate development, it has not reached the desired climax; the DePIN sector indeed saw significant growth this year, but the prediction of a tenfold market size increase is somewhat optimistic, growing from $9 billion at the beginning of the year to about $25 billion by the end of the year (rough estimate).

HTX Venture

Related Reading:

HTX Ventures 2023 Annual Review

2024 Predictions:

⭕️ Trading Innovation: The emergence of mature trading bots and new trading infrastructure has witnessed continuous innovation in trading mechanisms, suggesting more dynamic and efficient market interactions.

☑️ Layer 2 Evolution: Driven by the highly anticipated Cancun upgrade, fierce competition among Layer 2 solutions may lead to significant advancements in scalability and efficiency, further solidifying the sector's key role.

❌ Web3 and X-Fi Dynamics: The shift towards genuine Web3 projects (such as the success of platforms like Friend.tech) marks a more integrated approach, incorporating social and gaming elements into the crypto space.

☑️ Integration with Traditional Finance: Discussions around Bitcoin ETFs and real-world assets (RWA), especially regarding the potential breakthrough of Bitcoin spot ETFs, highlight the increasing integration of traditional finance and the crypto industry, likely marking a new era of market growth and mainstream recognition.

Summary:

These predictions have been partially validated, especially regarding the integration with traditional finance. The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs has significantly boosted institutional capital inflows and enhanced market confidence, leading to the gradual acceptance of the crypto industry by mainstream finance. However, predictions regarding trading innovation and the dynamics of Web3 and X-Fi have not been fully realized. Although there has been progress in the development of trading bots and new infrastructure, it has not yet brought about revolutionary changes in market interactions; additionally, Friend.tech faced an embarrassing downturn this year.

HTX Ventures' Outlook for 2025 has been released—

HTX Ventures Report: The Current Market is Far from Bull Market Peaks, Will Continue to Focus on Meme Coins, AI Coins, and Other Areas

Bankless

Six Major Crypto Themes Bankless Will Focus on in 2024: LRT, DA Wars, Parallel EVM

☑️ EigenLayer breaks through $10 billion in TVL.

❌ 1 million ETH burned.

❌ ETH Layer 2 shifts to optimize VM and parallel EVM.

❌ Solana crashes.

Summary:

From the actual market situation, some of these predictions have been realized, but overall they lean towards optimism. EigenLayer's performance has indeed been impressive, with TVL surpassing $10 billion, proving that the restaking model has gained high market recognition. However, the burning of 1 million ETH has not been achieved (as of the time of writing, the data shows that the burning amount in the past year is 472,000 ETH). Although Ethereum's network activity has increased, trading volume and usage rates have not driven the burning amount to meet expectations.

Regarding the development of ETH Layer 2, the current focus remains on scalability optimization (such as zkEVM and Optimistic Rollup). The exploration of parallel EVM has sparked discussions but has not become a mainstream direction, indicating that this prediction has clearly overestimated the speed of technological transformation in the short term. The prediction of Solana crashing has not materialized; on the contrary, Solana has made significant progress in stability.

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Reviewing the cryptocurrency predictions of various institutions for 2024: True prophets or face-slapping moments?

Binance Labs

Coinbase Venture

a16z

Messari

Pantera Capital

OKX Venture

Blockworks

IOBC Capital

HTX Venture

Bankless

Selected Articles by Odaily星球日报

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