Tweets from Musk and others indicate that this possibility is quite high.

Source: BeInCrypto

Translation: Blockchain Knight

BeInCrypto previously reported that former FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has garnered attention for potentially being released early from prison.

And tweets from Musk and others suggest that this possibility is quite high.

So, what are the chances that the FTX founder could leave prison less than a year after being convicted?

In 2020, at the peak of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried donated $5.2 million to a pro-Biden super PAC. He was the second-largest individual donor to the Democrats, behind Michael Bloomberg.

Historically, political donors and their affiliates have a significant advantage when it comes to convictions and pardons.

Take Marc Rich, for example; this "notorious" oil trader evaded at least $50 million in taxes as early as 2021. However, Rich was pardoned on the last day of Clinton's presidency.

The controversy surrounding the pardon stems from the fact that Rich's ex-wife, Denise, was a major donor to the Democrats. She made substantial contributions to Clinton's presidential library and the Democratic National Committee.

Similarly, Paul Pogue is another convicted tax fraudster who was pardoned by Trump in 2020. Reports indicate this was because Pogue's family donated over $200,000 to Trump's campaign.

Prediction market participant Kalshi posted on X: "Sam Bankman-Fried used stolen millions of customer funds to finance political activities."

"SBF donated almost all his funds to the Democrats (98%), making him the second-largest donor to the Democrats, and now the chance of Biden pardoning him is 12%."

Given the historical cases where political donors are more likely to receive leniency, it is not surprising that there is controversy over the possibility of Sam Bankman-Fried being pardoned by Biden.

Additionally, Biden pardoned Michael Conahan last week.

Conahan was sentenced to 17 years in prison for a scandal involving "trading children for money." He accepted bribes from private juvenile detention centers, often sending children to these facilities for minor offenses.

This is a specific indication that Biden may not shy away from pardoning serious criminals.

One of the most controversial points in Bankman-Fried's trial was that the government overlooked charges related to campaign finance.

Initially, Bankman-Fried faced eight criminal charges, including conspiracy to defraud the United States and violating campaign finance laws.

However, the campaign finance charge was dropped in July 2023.

The charge was dismissed initially due to a treaty obligation with the Bahamas. Essentially, the Bahamian government did not approve of including this specific charge in the extradition request.

However, prosecutors claimed they would pursue these charges in a separate trial.

The purpose of the second trial was to address the dismissed campaign finance charges, along with some charges related to bribery and operating an unlicensed remittance business.

However, in December 2023, prosecutors announced they would not proceed with the second trial because the evidence for the second trial would largely repeat what had already been presented in the first trial.

Earlier this year, Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison for multiple counts of wire fraud and other charges.

However, given the scale and impact of his crimes, many believe the sentence was too lenient.

The collapse of FTX resulted in losses of over $16 billion for customers and creditors, and the crypto asset winter caused the market to lose over $100 billion. Therefore, as one of the largest financial scandals in U.S. history, many consider this sentencing to be lenient.

Prominent attorney Richard W. Painter wrote: "Sam Bankman-Fried and his associates hope to receive pardons or reduced sentences in exchange for the campaign contributions they stole from FTX investors. Any president who agrees to do so should be impeached for bribery."

Prosecutors initially sought a 50-year sentence, arguing that Sam Bankman-Fried's crimes were "historic" in scope and severity.

Prosecutors emphasized the significant economic losses suffered by FTX customers and the public's diminished trust in the crypto asset market.

Additionally, Caroline Ellison, who actively collected customer funds from FTX and Bankman-Fried, received only a 2-year prison sentence due to her cooperation with prosecutors.

Most surprisingly, Gary Wang, who wrote the backdoor code providing unlimited credit to Alameda, completely avoided prison time.

Given these facts, and critics arguing that the sentence was too lenient, the crypto asset industry clearly anticipates that Sam Bankman-Fried may receive leniency.

However, it is important to note that the connection between donations and pardons is not always consistent.

Presidents may grant pardons for other reasons, and it is difficult to definitively prove that donations are the sole or primary motivating factor.

But it is certain that, due to cases of wealthy individuals escaping legal troubles through political donations, there will inevitably be moral concerns.

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