The first assignment after Christmas, as expected, the trading volume of BTC in the last 24 hours remains very low, even lower than the trading volume on Christmas Day. It seems that many American investors are still in a holding pattern, which is also within our expectations. The price of BTC has seen a slight pullback, actually returning to the price before Christmas. This is why we have been saying that the holiday market should not be taken too seriously; it is all due to a lack of liquidity.

It seems that the market trend in the next few days is likely to continue to fluctuate around $95,000. Recently, there has been no direct negative information, and the market has begun to digest the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts in 2025. Therefore, I still believe that without any actual negative news, the possibility of a deep and prolonged decline is low. We are still in a period of low liquidity during Christmas and New Year, only because market makers have returned after the U.S. stock market opened.

Tomorrow is the last trading day of the week, and there is still a large number of options expiring. We analyzed these options during Christmas, and it is estimated that about $4.2 billion could be profitable. The likelihood of these investors choosing to roll over their positions is the highest, so to put it simply, the delivery of options should not have too much impact on the market.

Looking back at the #BTC data, the trading volume itself is also low, so there is naturally no pressure on support. Although BTC has fallen from its high, the reduction in holdings by loss-making investors has expanded again, while short-term profit-taking investors have mostly sold off. The support between $95,000 and $100,000 remains very strong, and there are currently no signs of support being broken.

Data has been updated, address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing

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