Preface: Investment carries risks, and operations should be cautious.

Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only, welcome to read!

Article writing time: December 26, 12:30 PM Beijing Time

Market Information

1. Pantera Capital CEO predicts that the Bitcoin bull market cycle will peak in August 2025;
2. Deribit executive: The crypto market is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation pattern in the short term, continuing until early January;
3. Russia states it is using Bitcoin for international payments;
4. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January next year is 91.4%;
5. The Japanese government has officially responded to the Bitcoin reserve plan: The volatility of crypto assets does not align with the current foreign exchange reserve system;

Market Review

Previously, after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, we predicted a decline, but we did not anticipate it would drop this deeply. Bitcoin did not provide effective support around 97,000 and directly fell to 92,272. Ethereum also followed the decline, hitting a low of 3,100. If this wave of decline was laid out according to our strategy in the article, it would have basically all stopped out, but it was only a small loss, as some profits were given back to the market. Currently, Bitcoin is once again approaching 100,000, and the market trend will continue to rise, with the first target being 110,000;

Market Analysis

BTC:

From the daily chart, after Bitcoin dropped to around 92,000, it did not continue to fall, just touching the previous low of the downward shadow line. After the first dip and forming a lower shadow line, it did not produce a very effective rebound. The second dip brought it close to 100,000, and the timing of the second dip coincided with Christmas Eve. Now that Christmas has passed, the decline has also occurred. The market has tested the bottom several times, and with December nearing its end, January 20th, when Trump takes office, will surely impact the market again. The opportunity for a deep correction in the future is small. Due to some matters in the past two days, I did not update in time. Offline, after a doji star was formed around 92, I laid out a long position, which can be verified at any time. However, now entering midway also has decent profits. In Bitcoin trading, the main strategy is to buy on dips. Those who have long positions should continue to hold. For those without long positions, you can directly enter around 98,400, and add once more if it goes down. The recommended stop loss is around 96,000, with targets looking at 102,000 and 105,000 for new highs. Once it reaches above 102,000, you can exit on your own. If you can hold, aim for 110,000 and manage your entry opportunities; for short-term trading, control risks and manage your own profits and losses;

ETH:

From the daily chart, Ethereum's recent decline is relatively weaker compared to Bitcoin, breaking below the short-term low of 3,475, confirming my previous statement that it cannot outperform in an uptrend but leads in a downtrend. However, as Bitcoin begins to rebound, Ethereum will not continue to decline. On the chart, Ethereum's drop touched a previous area of concentrated trading and formed a lower shadow line, which is also considered effective support. In the future, Ethereum will follow Bitcoin's rebound, but do not have high hopes for the strength of the rebound. Pay attention to whether it can break the 4,109 level. In short-term trading, the main strategy is to buy on dips, laying out long positions around 3,340, and adding once more if it goes down. The recommended stop loss is around 3,200, with targets looking at the 3,720-3,890 range. After reaching this range, you can manage your exit on your own, and pay attention to whether the high of 4,109 can be broken. Manage your entry opportunities; for short-term trading, control risks and manage your own profits and losses;

In summary:

After Bitcoin and Ethereum test the bottom, the market will begin to rise continuously;

The article is time-sensitive, be aware of risks, the above is only personal advice, for reference only!

Follow the WeChat public account "Crypto Lao Zhao" to discuss the market together;

All suffering stems from the pursuit of certainty. Impermanence is the norm and the way life should be. Always wanting to grasp the market, not acting on a 50% certainty, not acting on a 70% certainty, must wait for a 100% certainty—where is there a 100% certainty in the market? Trading is about trading risks, trying to make the odds stand in your favor. Those who give will receive, and those who are blessed will be blessed. Sometimes, learn to take a little loss, be a bit foolish, a bit clumsy. For example, if the market is bullish, once this is confirmed, don’t get too stuck on the position, lower your position a bit, then get in first, and if it reverses, so be it.

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