Bitcoin and altcoins have recovered well before Christmas, and whale wallets continue to accumulate, extending the bull market.
Author: Deep Tide TechFlow
Market Dynamics
QCP: MicroStrategy's purchase scale hits a new low, raising market doubts; investors wary of potential gap movements during the holiday break
QCP Capital's latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin's price has retraced 14% from last week's all-time high to $92,500, then rebounded to $95,000. Spot ETFs have seen capital outflows for three consecutive days, leading to cautious market sentiment as year-end liquidity gradually dries up.
Previously, MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by $561 million at an average price of $106,662, marking the seventh consecutive week of purchases, but this purchase scale is a recent low, raising doubts about its willingness to buy at high prices. Despite the price drop, front-end volatility remains low, and there is no significant gamma hedging demand in the market. As a large options expiration approaches on Friday, the volatility butterfly spread remains at a high of +2.0, indicating that the market has not yet stabilized.
QCP Capital warns that during shortened trading hours or market closures in traditional markets, Bitcoin's 24/7 trading characteristic may become a key channel for the market to react to significant events, advising investors to be cautious of potential gap movements.
Sahara AI releases roadmap for 2024-2025: Sahara Chain mainnet to launch in Q3 2025
The decentralized AI blockchain platform Sahara AI has released its roadmap for 2024-2025. The first phase of the project's testnet went live in December 2024, primarily featuring data service platform functions, where users can earn rewards by collecting, optimizing, and labeling datasets. The first quarter of the testnet will adopt a phased invitation system, with the second quarter set to launch in Q1 2025.
According to the roadmap, an AI marketplace will be launched in Q1 2025, opening access to some developer tools and expanding the data service platform's functionality. Developers can explore, customize, and deploy AI models in the marketplace, accessing high-quality data and scalable computing resources, with all operations recorded on-chain.
Q2 will see the release of the Sahara Studio comprehensive toolkit, which includes three major toolkits for model training, deployment, and orchestration, aimed at simplifying the AI development process.
Q3 will officially launch the Sahara Chain mainnet, providing infrastructure support for large-scale decentralized AI.
IOTA introduces sustainable token economic model with a 6% annual inflation rate
IOTA will introduce a sustainable token economic model with a 6% annual inflation rate (767,000 IOTAs per epoch), providing staking rewards for validators/delegators, low transaction fees (approximately 0.005 IOTAs), and deflationary pressure from fees burned.
Binance Alpha adds GAME, UFD, GEL, GOUT, and YNE
According to relevant page information, Binance Alpha has announced its sixth batch of projects, including:
GAME: An AI agent project issued by Virtuals Protocol on the Base chain;
UFD: A meme coin with an animal theme created by a popular YouTuber on the Solana chain;
GEL: A platform providing rapid Rollup services on the Ethereum chain;
GOUT: A dog-themed meme coin on the BNB chain;
YNE: An AI agent project on the Solana chain.
Matrixport: Bitcoin's pullback may be a buildup for a rebound in 2025, with $90,000 to $95,000 as an ideal pullback range
Matrixport data shows that after Bitcoin surged over 40% in 30 days, it typically enters a consolidation phase, with the current price down about 5% from a month ago. Historical data indicates that Bitcoin often experiences a pullback after similar gains, consistent with past cycle patterns. In a bull market, a 10% to 20% pullback from recent highs usually forms an ideal re-entry zone.
For example, if Bitcoin pulls back from a high of $108,000 to the $90,000 to $95,000 range, this could become an excellent pullback area. As long as the price remains within a -20% pullback range and continues the current cycle trend, it is expected to lay the foundation for a new round of increases in 2025.
2024 crypto hacks lead to $2.3 billion in industry losses, a 40% increase from 2023
According to the latest report from on-chain security company Cyvers, cryptocurrency hacks in 2024 resulted in losses of $2.3 billion, a 40% increase from 2023.
Data shows that there were a total of 165 attacks throughout the year, with access control vulnerabilities causing losses of up to $1.9 billion, accounting for 81% of total losses; smart contract vulnerabilities caused losses of $456 million, and address fraud attacks resulted in approximately $68.7 million in losses.
Cyvers CEO Deddy Lavid stated that private key management vulnerabilities in centralized exchanges and cryptocurrency custodians are the main sources of risk, warning that North Korean hackers may target Bitcoin ETFs in 2025.
Santiment: Bitcoin and altcoins recover well before Christmas, whale wallets continue to accumulate, extending the bull market
On December 25, according to Santiment data, Bitcoin and altcoins have recovered well before Christmas, with Bitcoin's price rebounding to $99,000. The current distribution of Bitcoin wallet addresses is as follows:
0-0.1 BTC: 50.17 million;
0.1-10 BTC: 4.31 million;
10-1,000 BTC: 150.13 thousand;
Over 1,000 BTC: 2,050;
Analysis indicates that as long as the number of large holders and whale wallets (the last two groups) continues to grow and maintain the accumulation trend since 2024, the bull market is likely to continue.
MicroStrategy plans to significantly increase the number of common shares from the current 330 million to 10.3 billion shares
According to a report by Barron's Weekly citing documents submitted by MicroStrategy, the company plans to significantly increase the authorized number of common shares from the current 330 million to 10.3 billion, an increase of up to 3000%. This proposal will be voted on at a special shareholders' meeting. Based on current stock prices and Bitcoin prices, this authorized amount is sufficient to support MicroStrategy's acquisition of all Bitcoin globally (approximately 20 million coins). Additionally, MicroStrategy has recently raised funds through stock and convertible bond issuance to purchase Bitcoin, currently holding over 2% of the total Bitcoin supply.
Listed Bitcoin mining companies underperform the market, with only 7 companies achieving positive returns this year
According to Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin's price rising 113% in 2024, data from Hashrate Index and Google Finance shows that among the 25 listed mining companies tracked, only 7 achieved positive returns. Bitdeer (BTDR) rose by 167%, Core Scientific (CORZQ) surged by 327%, and TeraWulf (WULF) increased by 169%. In contrast, Argo Blockchain (ARB) saw the largest decline, at 84%.
2024 has been challenging for mining companies, as the Bitcoin halving reduced block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, mining difficulty increased by 50.71% year-on-year, and operating costs rose. To cope with the pressure, U.S. listed mining companies raised over $2.2 billion through stock issuance in the first three quarters. Some companies, like Core Scientific, have begun to venture into the AI field, partnering with CoreWeave, which is expected to generate $8.7 billion in revenue over the next 12 years.
Market Dynamics
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A tweet brings in 35,000 SOL, what is the AI-Pool pre-sold by ai16zdao members?
AI-Pool is a smart token issuance system built on a trusted execution environment (TEE), where the core is managed by AI agents throughout the issuance and operation process, aiming to address the centralization risks present in previous pre-sale projects. The mechanism of AI-Pool includes: users directly invest SOL into the AI wallet address, with funds managed by AI agents to create liquidity pools; eligible participants will receive token airdrop distributions.
The 2025 outlook for the cryptocurrency industry: returning from DeFi to AI integration, a new round of industry reshuffling is about to begin. The regulatory environment will become increasingly clear, and compliant DeFi protocols are expected to grow rapidly, attracting more institutional participation. DeFi and Web3 may return to the U.S. market, re-establishing connections with U.S. users.
This article mainly analyzes the development trends of the cryptocurrency market in 2025. It explores Bitcoin's rise, the performance of the altcoin market, and the expansion of stablecoins and credit. The author believes that the cryptocurrency market may experience a comprehensive rebound in the coming year, but the focus will be more on projects with good fundamentals, while high-risk speculative varieties like meme coins will still exist. Additionally, the crypto market will present two main groups: Web3 native users and ordinary investors.
Spot positions may face significant pullbacks, requiring risk avoidance in advance.
The next wave of increases may bring benefits to some key coins, but it is necessary to gradually reduce risk and shrink positions.
The market will mainly belong to traders, with certain coins potentially attracting large buying interest, while others will only rise slowly.
DePayFi: Any asset, any time, anywhere can appreciate
PayFi is a transformative solution that leverages the advantages of blockchain and DeFi to effectively address the "impossible triangle" of yield, liquidity, and risk in traditional finance. PayFi transforms every dollar into smart, autonomous funds that can automatically seek yield-generating opportunities while maintaining high liquidity, achieving financial efficiency and fairness.
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