Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
In the past week, Bitcoin experienced a significant correction, dropping about 15% from its historical high of $108,300, with the price briefly falling to around $92,000. Currently, as market sentiment gradually stabilizes, the price of Bitcoin has recovered to around $96,000, entering a phase of fluctuation.
The continuous decline has severely impacted altcoins, with many token prices even falling to levels seen before October, erasing the "Trump Effect" gains following Trump's election as President of the United States. Nevertheless, with the Christmas holiday approaching, many believe that the "Christmas crash" will further exacerbate the market downturn.
However, as 2025 approaches, a series of positive factors, including Trump's inauguration and Bitcoin's strategic reserve plan, are poised to emerge, suggesting that the cryptocurrency industry may still welcome a new round of "dawn moments."
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the viewpoints of industry professionals, institutional buying trends, and some on-chain activities in this article, providing readers with a more comprehensive perspective on the market.
Overview of Industry Perspectives: Majority Bullish, Minority Bearish
From the perspective of mainstream industry figures, most believe that the current correction in BTC is only temporary, primarily due to the rapid breakthrough of the new high around $108,000. Meanwhile, altcoin holders are in a state of eager selling, leading to market fluctuations downward. As 2024 comes to a close and 2025 approaches, BTC is expected to continue reaching new highs.
CZ: Waiting for New Headlines, Bitcoin Continues to Set New Highs
Binance co-founder CZ recently stated that he is waiting for new headlines as Bitcoin continues to set new highs. Previously, he tweeted four years ago that BTC "crashed" from $101,000 to $85,000, waiting for news headlines to report it. Link
Cathie Wood: BTC Will Become Scarcer Than Gold Due to Institutional Demand
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that due to institutional demand, Bitcoin "is becoming scarcer than gold." She previously predicted that by 2030, the price of BTC will exceed $1 million.
Bitwise CIO: BTC Has Three Unstoppable Sources of Demand: ETF, MicroStrategy, and Government
On December 19, Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan pointed out three "unstoppable" sources of demand for Bitcoin: ETFs, MicroStrategy, and the government itself potentially becoming Bitcoin buyers. He added, "It ultimately comes down to supply and demand. Too much demand, not enough supply, so I believe the price in 2025 will be higher."
Trader Peter Brandt: BTC May Continue to Rise, Recent Price Target of $125,000
After BTC recently fell below the $91,000 mark, it rebounded strongly over the weekend and has slightly retreated to around $96,000. During this process, veteran trader Peter Brandt reiterated his bullish view on BTC and stated that it may continue to rise in the future. Additionally, other on-chain indicators also suggest a positive momentum for BTC in the future. In a recent analysis, Brandt indicated that BTC could reach $108,358 in the coming days.
Peter Brandt's K-line Analysis
However, he also cited technical charts warning that BTC prices may pull back to $76,614 during the upward trend, adding that "this is not a prediction," pointing out the risks present in the market. He stated that these analyses only reflect "possibilities, not probabilities, and not certainties." Furthermore, his recently set price target for BTC is $125,000.
Lark Davis: Current Correction Is Not the "End of the Bull Market," Market Still Has Plenty of Fuel
Crypto KOL and industry analyst Lark Davis analyzed based on historical data that the current correction in the crypto market is not the "end of the bull market." He stated, "In December 2020, after a 77% rise from October to November, BTC fell by 12%. Subsequently, it rose from $17,000 to $41,000 in the following 23 days (a 136% increase). A similar situation is happening now; Bitcoin has fallen by 13% after a significant rise in the fourth quarter. This does not mean this is the bottom; we may see another 10-15% correction. But Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market still have plenty of fuel."
Analyst: Bitcoin's Current Correction Is Highly Related to Coinbase's Sell-off Since October 26
The recent drop in BTC's price marks a sharp shift in market sentiment, which has quickly turned from extreme bullishness to uncertainty and caution. As altcoins have been severely impacted, Bitcoin's correction has raised concerns about the sustainability of the recent upward trend.
Top analyst Maartunn recently emphasized that this adjustment coincides with the most severe sell-off activity from Coinbase since October 26 (when BTC was trading at $66,000). The increased selling pressure clearly indicates a shift in the market from a bullish to a fearful and hesitant state. The combination of reduced buying activity and increased selling pressure suggests that the market is struggling to maintain upward momentum. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently testing the $92,000 mark for support.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin May Reach $200,000 by Mid-2025 and Maintain a Mild Correction Trend
Bitfinex analysts stated in a recent market report that due to strong institutional demand, Bitcoin's downturn in 2025 will be short-lived, predicting that in the best-case scenario, Bitcoin's price will double by June 2025, with a minimum price estimated to "reach $145,000 by mid-2025, potentially rising to $200,000 under favorable conditions."
Analysts stated, "We believe that any adjustments in 2025 will remain mild due to institutional capital inflows." They noted that while volatility is expected in the first quarter of 2025, the "broader trend" indicates that its price will continue to rise, thanks to the ongoing inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased global and institutional adoption rates.
CryptoQuant CEO: Current Market Is Not a Traditional Altcoin Season, but an Independent Market for Individual Tokens
On December 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju pointed out that Bitcoin's market share has dropped by 6% (with XRP contributing 3%), but it has begun to recover. Currently, only a few altcoins are attracting new liquidity, and the scale of capital rotation from Bitcoin to altcoins is limited.
He believes that this is not a traditional altcoin season, but an independent market for individual outperforming tokens.
Trader Eugene: Altcoin Investors Eager to Sell Spot, Market May Enter a Longer Consolidation Phase
Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio expressed his views on the altcoin market, stating: "Altcoins (Alts) quickly fell back to these levels within 48 hours after forming wick lows, indicating that investors are extremely anxious about holding spot assets and are eager to sell. The market may enter a longer adjustment phase or rapidly decline in a short time."
Analyst: Seeing Significant Corrections in a Cryptocurrency Bull Market Is "Very Typical"
Earlier, Bitcoin had just set a new historical high of over $108,000, and the recent decline in the crypto space has had a greater impact on altcoins like Ethereum and Dogecoin. Last Thursday, a group of U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin ended a 15-day streak of inflows, recording an outflow of $680 million, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.
FRNT Financial's Head of Data and Analysis Strahinja Savic stated that seeing such significant corrections in a cryptocurrency bull market is "very typical," while QCP Capital noted in a report that the fundamental reason for the sell-off is the market's "overly optimistic" positions.
Strong Buying: Continuous Inflows into BTC ETFs, Governments and Corporations Following Suit
From the perspective of market fundamentals, we are still in the "strike zone" of institutional trading, with funds from U.S. BTC ETFs, El Salvador, U.S. listed companies, and Japanese listed companies continuously purchasing BTC, with holding costs not significantly different from BTC's spot price. Institutions are relatively optimistic about BTC's future performance.
Bitcoin Cap Table: ETFs, Governments, and MSTR Currently Hold 31% of All Bitcoin, Doubling from Last Year
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju released an update on Bitcoin holdings pie chart stating that ETFs, governments, and MSTR now hold 31% of all Bitcoin, up from 14% last year.
BTC Holdings Pie Chart Information
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Trading Volume Reaches $26 Billion in Week 50, $17.5 Billion Inflows So Far in Q4
According to Trader T monitoring, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $463 million in week 50, with a trading volume of $26 billion. Additionally:
The inflow for Bitcoin ETFs in the fourth quarter so far is $17.5 billion (the best quarter);
BlackRock's IBIT inflow is $1.452 billion;
Other ETFs had an outflow of $989 million.
El Salvador Increases BTC Purchases, Mid-term Goal to Accumulate 20,000 BTC
On December 21, Bitcoin Magazine reported that Max Keiser, senior Bitcoin advisor to President Bukele of El Salvador, revealed: "President Bukele has increased daily Bitcoin purchases, with a mid-term goal of adding 20,000 Bitcoin." On December 22, El Salvador's wallet address added approximately 11 BTC (worth $1.06 million) for its strategic Bitcoin reserves.
Previously, El Salvador reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to obtain a $1.4 billion credit line, but there were requirements to "reduce Bitcoin risk"; when asked about Bitcoin's status as legal tender in El Salvador, IMF spokesperson Kozak stated that the use of Bitcoin would be voluntary.
In the latest news, Stacy Herbert, director of El Salvador's Bitcoin office, clarified that even after reaching the agreement, the country will continue to "accelerate" Bitcoin purchases as part of its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. Herbert also explained that Bitcoin will remain the country's legal tender, and the government will continue to sponsor several cryptocurrency-focused educational programs. The Bitcoin office reports that the "1 BTC per day" purchase plan will continue.
Additionally, the country has made extra purchases, adding 30 BTC in the past 7 days and 53 BTC in the past 30 days.
Australia's Monochrome Spot Bitcoin ETF Holds 272 BTC
As of December 19, Australia's Monochrome Spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) holds 272 BTC, with AUM of approximately $44.345 million.
Australia BTC ETF Continues to Accumulate
Statistics: At Least 10 Companies Are Adopting or Considering MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy
According to statistics, at least 10 companies are adopting or considering MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, including:
AI company Genius Group: currently holds 294 BTC;
Pickup solutions provider Worksport: the board approved an initial purchase of $5 million worth of BTC and XRP;
Amazon: shareholders proposed that the company's board evaluate the potential benefits of adding Bitcoin to its financial strategy;
MicroStrategy: currently holds 439,000 BTC;
MARA Holdings: currently holds 44,394 BTC;
Tesla: currently holds 9,720 BTC;
Coinbase: currently holds 9,480 BTC as part of its reserves;
Hut 8 Mining Corp: currently holds 10,096 BTC;
Block Inc.: currently holds 8,027 BTC;
OneMedNet: currently holds 34 BTC.
Among them, Bitcoin mining company MARA previously disclosed data stating that it raised $1.925 billion through convertible notes in November and December and purchased 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529, worth approximately $1.53 billion, and repurchased about $263 million of its existing convertible notes maturing in 2026, expecting to use the remaining proceeds to purchase more Bitcoin. Hut 8 surpassed Tesla on December 19 to become the fourth publicly listed company to hold over 10,000 BTC.
Japanese Listed Company Metaplanet Increases Holdings by 619.7 BTC
On December 23, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced an additional purchase of 619.7 BTC, spending a total of 9.5 billion yen (approximately $60.68 million), with an average purchase price of about $97,800; its total BTC holdings increased to 1,761.98 BTC.
Increase Holdings Documentation
Glassnode: Bull Market Trend Shows Decreased Bitcoin Drawdown Severity, Most Corrections Around 25%
Glassnode previously stated, "Interestingly, as the market grows, the severity of Bitcoin's drawdowns in the bull market trend has decreased. The deepest drawdown in this cycle was -32% (on August 5, 2024), while most corrections were only about 25% down from previous highs, reflecting the demand for spot ETFs and increasing institutional interest."
Glassnode Indicates Decreasing Drawdown Severity
On-chain Activity: Growth in Wallet Addresses, Awakening of Dormant Addresses, Long-term Holders Exiting
On-chain activity shows a polarized phenomenon: on one hand, over an extended time scale, the number of holding addresses for mainstream cryptocurrencies has increased to varying degrees, starting from at least 25%; on the other hand, ancient BTC addresses that have been dormant for over 10 years are awakening, and many long-term BTC holders have gradually exited.
In the Past Two Years, Non-empty Wallets for BTC and ETH Increased by 27% and 47% Respectively
Santiment reported that the number of cryptocurrency holders has significantly increased over the past two years. Here are the non-empty wallet counts for the top four cryptocurrencies by market capitalization:
BTC: 54.7 million (+27%);
ETH: 134.9 million (+47%);
USDT: 6.57 million (+66%);
XRP: 5.75 million (+28%).
Analyst: As of December 20, 74,052 BTC Withdrawn from Exchanges This Month
On December 20, crypto analyst AIi stated that as of now, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in December, and this trend does not seem to be slowing down.
Continuous Outflow of BTC from Exchanges
Since September, Long-term Bitcoin Holders Have Sold 1 Million BTC
In mid-December, long-term Bitcoin holders have been selling a significant amount of Bitcoin, with their total holdings decreasing from approximately 14.2 million coins in mid-September to about 13.2 million coins. The current trading price of Bitcoin is about 13% lower than the historical high of around $108,000, which is the highest level since Trump won the U.S. election in early November.
According to Glassnode data, on December 19, long-term Bitcoin holders sold nearly 70,000 BTC, marking the fourth-largest single-day sell-off this year.
Recently Activated Addresses Holding Over $20 Million After Years of Dormancy
Bitcoin fell below $96,000 on December 22, down about 11% since breaking through $108,000 on December 17, 2024.
Meanwhile, at Bitcoin network block height 875,560, a wallet that had been dormant since July 25, 2015, was activated and transferred 44.99 BTC, marking its first activity since creation. The same user actually transferred a total of 59.99 BTC, moving funds from three old addresses (P2PKH) to two Pay-to-Witness-Public-Key-Hash (P2WPKH) wallets. Of these, 44.99 BTC came from 2015, when the BTC trading price was $290. Then, after 43 blocks, several wallets from 2017 began to activate, transferring small amounts of Bitcoin (0.00000547 BTC) at block 875,603.
This pattern of sending Bitcoin fragments cleverly conceals larger-scale transfers. Once the satoshis are settled, a newly minted P2WPKH wallet will receive 99.999 BTC, valued at approximately $9.7 million at current prices. On Saturday, a wallet that had been dormant for 12 years was activated and transferred 104.99 BTC, which was worth only $11 at the time, totaling $1,200. Today, these BTC are worth over $10 million. This transfer also migrated from an old P2PKH address to a new P2WPKH address.
Continuous Outflow of BTC from Exchanges: Coinbase's Losses Accelerate
Coinglass data shows that the current balance of Bitcoin wallets on Coinbase Pro is 733,076.34 coins, ranking first among CEXs; in the past 24 hours, there was an inflow of 16.69 coins, while in the past 7 days, there was an outflow of 14,661.50 coins, and in the past 30 days, an outflow of 70,185.16 coins.
Binance's Bitcoin wallet balance is 571,802.93 coins, with an inflow of 1,458.46 coins in the past 24 hours, an inflow of 4,199.11 coins in the past 7 days, and an outflow of 10,412.79 coins in the past 30 days.
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