Original Title: "US Bitcoin reserve could slash national debt 35% by 2049: VanEck"
Author: Brayden Lindrea, CoinTelegraph
Translation by: Deng Tong, Jinse Finance
Asset management company VanEck stated that if the United States establishes a reserve of 1 million bitcoins according to the bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis, the U.S. could reduce its national debt by 35% over the next 24 years.
VanEck estimates that by 2049, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of bitcoin will reach 25%, reaching $42.3 million, while the CAGR of U.S. national debt will reach 5%, increasing from $37 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to $119.3 trillion.
Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, and investment analyst Nathan Frankovitz stated in a report on December 20: "By 2049, this reserve could account for 35% of the national debt, offsetting about $42 trillion of debt."
It is expected that from 2025 to 2049, U.S. national debt will increase alongside the growth of bitcoin reserves. Source: VanEck
The "optimistic" forecast suggests that the 25% CAGR of bitcoin will start from a price point of $200,000 in 2025. Bitcoin is currently trading at $95,360, needing to more than double to reach the starting point indicated by VanEck.
A bitcoin price rise to $42.3 million would mean it accounts for about 18% of global financial assets—far higher than its current share of about 0.22% in today's $90 trillion market.
Estimates of U.S. national debt and bitcoin reserve holdings, as well as the CAGR of bitcoin value, are set at 25%. Source: VanEck
The idea of a bitcoin reserve was proposed by Donald Trump's new administration, which drove the price of bitcoin above six figures, but Senator Lummis's bill has yet to be reviewed by the Senate or the House of Representatives.
Jack Mallers, founder and CEO of Strike, claimed earlier this month that Trump might issue an executive order on his first day in office designating bitcoin as a reserve asset.
According to the Lummis bill, the U.S. could repurpose the 198,100 bitcoins it holds due to asset seizures, while the remaining 801,900 bitcoins could be financed through emergency support functions, selling a portion of its $455 billion gold reserves in exchange for bitcoin, or both—none of which would require printing money or taxpayer funds, VanEck noted.
Sigel and Frankovitz stated that the adoption of bitcoin at the state, institutional, and corporate levels in the U.S. would also boost the CAGR estimates for bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded fund issuers.
Sigel explained in a post on X on December 21 that the member nation states of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) could also influence the price of bitcoin and lead to its increasing use as a currency.
They noted: "For those countries looking to avoid dollar sanctions that are growing exponentially, bitcoin is likely to be widely used as a settlement currency for global trade."
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