Zongheng Freely: The market continues to decline, and we still need to wait for confirmation of the low point.

CN
2 months ago

As long as there is tomorrow, today will always be the starting line. If the heart has no place to rest, it will wander everywhere. Smart people understand, shrewd people are accurate, and wise people see far. Do not be amazed by this market; let this market be amazed by you!

First, let's briefly review yesterday's market and operations. The trend was basically consistent with the analysis provided in our article. After a dip near 98300 in the early morning yesterday, the market rebounded. However, as we analyzed, due to changes in the market trend, the momentum weakened, and after the rebound, it could not stabilize but would continue to seek lower positions. We suggested participating in short positions around 102500, and ultimately, the market rebounded to a maximum of around 102800 before falling again. As of now, the lows keep refreshing, and our short positions have successfully profited. We also emphasized that short positions belong to a short-term trend, which has been validated again. The same goes for Ethereum, where we laid out short positions above 3700, and the rebound reached around 3710, allowing us to profit from the short positions.

Currently, the macro environment of the cryptocurrency market is still greatly influenced by the expectation of interest rate cuts next year. After the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, it is clear that funds have started to withdraw. Last night, Bitcoin ETF ended a continuous 17-day net inflow of funds, with a single-day outflow of 670 million dollars, which indicates some issues. Future changes in the macro environment will also need to wait for news stimuli, such as an official announcement from the U.S. recognizing Bitcoin as a reserve; such major news is likely to directly change the trend.

On the technical front, the same statement applies: there are currently no signs of a bottoming out, and even if there is a temporary halt in the decline followed by a rebound, it will still continue to seek lower points. Firstly, from the daily chart, there is a clear adjustment cycle. As mentioned yesterday, the multiple top divergences on the daily chart have led to the current adjustment, which aligns very well with the technical trend. Coupled with the influence of news stimuli, isn't this a clear case of a market washout? The current technical cycle is quite unfriendly, with both the daily and four-hour charts showing the same trend, where bears dominate the market. In this situation, it will only continue to seek support downwards.

There’s not much to say about short-term operations; just hold onto our short positions. As for trying to catch a rebound, we need to wait for the market to provide some signs of a bottoming out, so let's wait for now.

The altcoin market is really poor. With Ethereum's overall performance being lackluster, the market is indeed very challenging. Perhaps with some patience, the bull market for altcoins might just arrive!

【The above analysis and strategies are for reference only. Please bear the risks yourself. The article is subject to review and publication, and market conditions change in real-time. The information may be delayed, and strategies may not be timely. Specific operations should follow real-time strategies.】

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