Bitcoin has dropped about 12,600 points from its peak, a decline of 11%. Ethereum is down 6% today and has broken below the 3,500M head and shoulders support line. Many previously strong coins have seen declines of 30%, while weaker altcoins generally range from 30% to 50%. January 20 is when Trump entered the White House, and January 28 is the Spring Festival. There is also a saying abroad that Christmas is bullish, but adjustments are still needed in the coming days.
Here are a few viewpoints:
First: The cryptocurrency market is increasingly resembling the U.S. stock market. The "seven golden flowers" of the U.S. stock market include SOL, XRP, LTC, DOGE, HABR, and the established BTC and ETH (also seven in total) which have ETF expectations.
Second: BTC will always oscillate upwards and must be allocated; profits from altcoins should be invested in BTC.
Third: Altcoins are experiencing a bifurcation; the strong will become stronger, and selecting coins is a necessary course.
On December 24, 2017, BTC reached a weekly target of 107,000. The interest rate cut in December is about to land; can the daily upward channel break through?
On December 24, 2018, BTC is approaching a critical moment, with support moving up to 103,000; a downward adjustment should be noted.
On December 24, 2019, the market indeed replicated the 2023 pattern; the decline of BTC has just begun, and we should prepare for the 2025 Spring Festival red envelope market!
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is testing the MA20 for the fifth time on the daily chart and has broken below it. If the subsequent rebound cannot reclaim this level, it will continue to decline. It also tests the bottom support of the upward channel with a minimum spike at 95,700, which is also near the previous two tests around 94,150. A short-term rebound is not ruled out, but we will continue to monitor the strength of the channel rebound and even wait for short-term entry opportunities on the right side; both MACD and RSI are still trending downwards.
The 4-hour chart has retraced to the dense trading area of 94,000–95,000. Aggressive traders can look for short-term rebounds, with resistance around 100,000. The Spring Festival red envelope market is approaching, and we can accumulate in batches.
Support: Resistance:
Ethereum
Yesterday, it was mentioned that it should not fall below 3,500; if it does, it will form an M top. The lowest drop was to 3,326, so we need to observe the strength of the rebound. Similarly, we need to pay attention to whether Bitcoin has reached its bottom before considering Ethereum and altcoins. This wave of adjustment currently seems not to be over, so patience is required.
The first target is 3,255, and the second target is 3,000. If it can return above 2,800 and hold, there will be bold entry opportunities.
Support: Resistance:
SUI
On the 11th, when Bitcoin was testing again, there was a short-term opportunity to buy SUI. However, after reaching a new high, the gap did not widen much, and after a few days of oscillation, it declined. Yesterday, it spiked at MA20, and today the body has slightly broken down. MACD shows multiple top divergences with decreasing volume, also indicating a lack of upward momentum. The upward trend has not yet been broken, so we will continue to monitor this support.
Support: Resistance:
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The article is time-sensitive and for reference only; it will be updated in real-time.
Focusing on K-line technical research, sharing global investment opportunities. Official account: Trading Prince Fusu
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