The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is crowded, all for profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui who talks about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome to all coin friends for your attention and likes, and refuse any market smoke screens.

A wave of declines has left everyone stunned. I have always warned everyone to be cautious of short sellers before interest rate cuts, yet very few have managed to exit safely. Bitcoin's lowest point reached around 104,800, while Ethereum hit around 3,832, with both experiencing nearly identical declines. For me, this market situation still belongs to the necessary market correction. In contrast, SOL's performance has been relatively stable, and this stability is predicated on the fact that small coins have not followed the upward trend. Currently, only the bubbles in small coins are still within a controllable range. Many believe that the altcoin season is about to begin, but I would like to remind you that the spring of altcoins depends on the timing of their listing, not on the height of the main force's pull. The premise of the main force's pull is that there are no large funds surviving in the market. During a bull market, instead of lurking in small coins, it is better to aim for mainstream coins. Let's first analyze the market situation:

In the entire market, aside from stablecoins like USDT, almost all other cryptocurrencies have been in a state of outflow over the past thirty days. Ethereum's performance has been quite remarkable, showing a net inflow of 650 million in funds. USDT has surprisingly seen an inflow of 1.5 billion in assets. Have you heard about the news of increased issuance? It could also be that previously issued coins are flowing back into the market. It is important to understand that the inflow of USDT into the market does not incur significant costs for the platforms, and it can even be considered free; value is only generated when someone purchases it. This is quite fascinating. Despite Bitcoin's crazy growth, there are no purchase records for the increased issuance of USDT, yet it continues to flow into the Bitcoin market. This indirectly indicates that the current value bubble of Bitcoin is enormous. Do not worry about bursting the current illusion; it is still in a balanced state, especially since Trump's cryptocurrency is still in preparation. The outflow of assets last night was all in preparation for the interest rate cut tomorrow morning. Even though the interest rate cut is already clear in my eyes, it will still lead the market into a state of panic. Most early exits were around the 96,000 mark, almost all in profit. At this stage, if you want to go long, you really need some courage. I have not reduced my position around the 97,000 mark; the interest rate cut still belongs to the short-term windfall, and if you want to seize it, you can also lay out your plans in advance.

A friendly reminder regarding the selection of investor groups: I have my own set of standards. Normally, I would not guide individuals without a fixed income or inherent assets, such as students or housewives. As the market continues to rise, many have indeed caught a whiff of profit, but most do not have the ability to pay for their own thoughts, meaning they do not have a clear understanding of the market. The result of losses is naturally unacceptable, and once such problems arise, I cannot bear the consequences. Therefore, I will not provide specific operational advice to this type of group; you should not seek my guidance but can ask other analysts. Everyone must have their own set of logical reasoning for investment; you cannot just follow others' thoughts. Many friends do not have a clear understanding of investment and position building, blindly trusting others will not yield good results. At the very least, you should have the ability to discern right from wrong and control yourself. I also understand that many friends are looking at my articles to make their moves, which is why I often mention my position building methods and exit points in my articles, to help everyone grasp the market. With early positioning, almost all users reading the articles can enter the market, but most people exit based on their own profit margins. Once a wave of exits occurs, it will be difficult for you to catch the next wave of growth; you must grasp the timing of your exits.

At this stage, the decline in returns is no different from losses. How to expand profits is what you should be thinking about. This may seem far-fetched, but I hope you can have a correct assessment of yourself. The data I mention is similar; you may not feel much about Bitcoin's outflow of 4.3 billion in assets, but the issues I see from my perspective are very intuitive. After Bitcoin crossed the 100,000 mark, the outflow of funds became very apparent, yet the price continues to set new highs. What does this mean? It means that retail investors have basically given up their chips, or the remaining retail investors have no reason to exit in the short term. If retail investors in the market do not move or have mostly exited, what situation will this create? It will allow the main force to pull without incurring costs. Friends who have experience in the stock market know that if the main force holds 30% of the shares, they basically have pricing power. Currently, in the Bitcoin market, the main force holds almost 80% of the chips. Bitcoin has now become a battle for major institutions, almost unrelated to retail investors. The entire pricing power is in the hands of large institutions. Don't think that a high price will lead to a drop; the exchange of chips between the main forces does not follow market prices and may not even go through exchanges. The specific transaction costs are definitely far below market prices, and I certainly cannot grasp the specific prices.

So, based on the above thoughts, if the institutions can pull without incurring costs, what reason is there for the price to drop? The current reasons for the drop lie in interest rate cuts, exchange rates, and foreign trade settlement costs. Some believe that there will be a drop around Christmas. Indeed, for retail investors, some may withdraw funds for their own consumption during the Christmas period, but the main force may not necessarily do so. The main force needs good financial reports to utilize assets, and how much they will use is uncertain. Retail exits may also lead to the main force bottom-fishing, and the downward space is not as large as the upward space. In this comparison, if you were the main force, how would you respond? The focus is still on Trump's thinking; he not only supports the cryptocurrency ecosystem but is also involved in the issuance of cryptocurrencies. Do you think it is likely that a large-scale drop will occur within the ecosystem he has created? As the price of coins rises, the depth of declines also decreases. Many friends predicted a drop below 90,000, and at this stage, they are speechless. If this wave can break through 110,000, it will almost mark the stabilization of the 95,000 mark, and it will be nearly impossible to touch below 90,000 again. You may have bearish thoughts, but do not put them into practice. Today, I will still focus on laying out long positions, watching the results of this interest rate cut. The entry and exit points will be within these two days! My layout this time is not recommended for you to follow blindly. If you are still in the market with the previous positions around 97,000, you can try to enter. If you are not in the market, it is best not to chase this wave. My confidence in entering the market comes from the profits still being in the market. Taking long positions without profits is quite risky! If you have any questions, feel free to ask me directly.

Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.

Lao Cui's Message: Investing is like playing chess; a master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three. The master considers the overall situation and the big trend, not focusing on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent entrapment.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trade at your own risk!

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