The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui who talks about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome everyone's attention and likes, and reject any market smokescreens.
Recently published statements have led many friends to feel an inexplicable inflation, as if they believe that growth is the only attribute of the cryptocurrency circle. Lao Cui needs to cool everyone down. How much of a bubble do you think the current Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market value have? Many friends, based on the gray market perspective, feel that the current trend has no bubble. This situation adds future attributes; we should only judge based on the current trend. First, Lao Cui's conclusion is that the bubble accounts for at least half. Why is this perspective so straightforward? It's simple; just from the current capital movement, one can see. I wonder if you still remember the USDT penalty at the beginning of the year. Lao Cui has been estimating the overall bubble from this point. The penalty has basically been confirmed, and Tether's issuance is not as grand as advertised. There must be tax evasion or over-issuance occurring, and the USDT bubble is exactly equivalent to the fiat currency bubble in the cryptocurrency circle. Once it encounters problems, it almost means that there is a bubble in all cryptocurrencies.
Why does Lao Cui hold this view? It starts with the estimates of all platforms. The comparison of inflow and outflow funds in this round of bull market does not belong to the same magnitude. Bitcoin has seen an outflow of 4 billion assets in thirty days, which indicates that retail investors do not have confidence in this explosive growth. USDT inflow is nearly 10 billion, and this level of issuance completely falls into the category of over-issuance. As for why there is over-issuance, Lao Cui has mentioned earlier that this may very well be the last song of the Tether team. Please note that it is the team, not Tether itself. Lao Cui's previous remarks are specific conclusions regarding this team, not suggesting that USDT will have problems later. The best outcome for USDT is to integrate into the regulatory system, and the team will definitely change members. This is the best outcome. If the status quo is maintained, alternatives will definitely emerge. As for whether over-issued currency can still have value, that is not something Lao Cui needs to consider. The probability of this happening can be said to be very low, but it does not mean it does not exist. By substituting the thinking of USDT over-issuance, let's look at the entire market. Almost all platform transactions revolve around Tether. So how much currency has been over-issued? How much currency has flowed into the Bitcoin market? How much of the current market value contains a bubble? Everything is happening too coincidentally. Trump's election victory and the arrival of interest rate cuts directly led to Tether's over-issuance, which is why you see Bitcoin increasing by thousands of points in one night.
The overall bubble is already difficult to estimate because the cryptocurrency circle is different from traditional finance. It lacks a precise regulatory system, so it is actually hard to detect how much asset is behind Tether. Regarding the bubble, everyone needs to have a positive understanding. In the short term, the emergence of over-issuance is definitely beneficial to the cryptocurrency circle. This is why Lao Cui does not advocate that everyone try to catch some short-term shorts. People want to short simply because they feel that the current price does not match the actual value. Once they are correct once, they may change their fate. To catch a short requires a change in the market trend. Simply put, unless there is a clear signal indicating that the cryptocurrency circle has directly transitioned from a bull market to a bear market, if there is no strong blow, then from the current trend, there is almost no possibility of a reversal. With the previous USDT over-issuance and the continuous promotion of interest rate cuts, along with various favorable policies from Trump, this is gradually perfecting a young market. Wanting to short at the peak is completely going against the current. Whether it is the bursting of traditional financial bubbles or problems in the cryptocurrency economy, both require a timeline for observation. For the cryptocurrency bull market, since Bitcoin was listed, it has entered a slow bull era, and the overall growth attribute has not reached a year. People easily fall into the mindset before listing, thinking that each wave of Bitcoin bull market will only last about half a year, often neglecting the foundation of the listing.
It is still necessary for everyone to compare with the current giants. Lao Cui has always emphasized the point of changing giants. The current giants are completely different from the previous bull market. Previously, the giants in the cryptocurrency circle were almost only Musk and Grayscale's rival. In the current bull market, almost all well-known investment banks and companies are entering the market. For a complete reversal in this situation, unless someone can bring them together for talks, the possibility is too low. Whether it is the previous bubble or the subsequent continuous issuance stimulating the bubble, within the scope of interest rate cuts, it is difficult to see directional changes. Interest rate cuts are maintaining the healthy growth of the bubble. To catch a short, one must wait for the emergence of the U.S. monetary tightening strategy. The loose state will only lead to a continuous influx of funds into the market. You can compare the return rates to see the cryptocurrency market. The cryptocurrency market was almost the only one that could outperform U.S. stocks and the dollar in the early stages. The purpose of doing this is also very clear, and I have communicated this with everyone. Secondly, regarding today's high point, you can also see the problem. Under the slow growth state of Bitcoin, the growth of all cryptocurrencies is almost within a controllable range, including the emotional rise of Ethereum is not obvious, and reaching a high point is quickly followed by a pullback. This kind of rising pattern is not healthy and indicates that the current capital volume in the cryptocurrency circle is relatively weak.
The main funds are almost all pulling up Bitcoin, and the growth of other cryptocurrencies can only be temporarily ignored. However, this situation actually provides everyone with an opportunity to enter the market. The arrival of the altcoin season and the growth of Bitcoin will definitely have a time lag. Today is already the sixteenth, and this slow growth can almost indicate that the main funds have begun to gather, and the previous ambush has basically ended. If you cannot seize this wave of Bitcoin growth, you can observe the top ten cryptocurrencies by market value. Lao Cui still needs to remind everyone that Ethereum's growth is almost outpaced by any cryptocurrency, and the returns are visibly low. The investment intensity needs to be reassessed. The explosion of altcoins requires the previous low points to solidify. The movement of funds has already indicated that pulling up Bitcoin and altcoins is mainly downwards. Large market fluctuations are not conducive to altcoins; they can only wait for Bitcoin to stabilize before altcoins have the opportunity to surge. Lao Cui does not need to mention Bitcoin's high point again. In a bull market, there is no need to talk about the top. I have always emphasized laying out long positions in Bitcoin. Everyone needs to think seriously. Tomorrow, Lao Cui will also wait to start laying out after a pullback. If anyone is interested, you can ask Lao Cui. In the past two days, Lao Cui has indeed been quite busy, and I hope those whose messages I have overlooked can forgive me. I will reply to everyone when I find the time. After this round of stimulating growth, everyone should be cautious of a deep pullback. Measures need to be taken later. There is still more than a month until Trump's inauguration, and there must be no problems in between. The real gains will still depend on his command!
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Lao Cui's Message: Investing is like playing chess. A master can see five, seven, or even more than ten moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The master considers the overall situation and strategizes for the big picture, not focusing on individual pieces or territories, aiming for the ultimate victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, and often finds themselves trapped.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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