In the past week, BTC experienced a rollercoaster market. Starting from December 5, it surged to an ATH of $104,088 and stabilized around $100,000. From December 6, BTC underwent a significant correction, plunging sharply, with the lowest point at $90,000 at 6 AM. Subsequently, the BTC price entered a correction phase, repeatedly returning to $100,000. In the early hours of December 10, BTC began to drop rapidly again, reaching a low of $94,800, with a maximum decline of over 13% during the week. The current price fluctuates around $97,000 (data sourced from Binance spot market, December 10, 19:00). As BTC's price fluctuated, the upward trend of altcoins was also weakened, with most cryptocurrencies declining accordingly.
According to Coinglass data, in the past 24 hours, the entire cryptocurrency market saw liquidations totaling $1.574 billion, affecting 511,000 people, with long positions liquidated at $1.388 billion and short positions at $185 million.
Market Interpretation
U.S. stock prices approach the 2000 bubble economy level, and the market remains optimistic about the upward potential of U.S. stocks
As of yesterday's U.S. stock market close, the three major indices collectively fell, with the Dow down 0.54%, the S&P 500 down 0.61%, and the Nasdaq down 0.62%. From a macro perspective, the market is awaiting this week's inflation report, trying to gauge the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy direction. On the news front, Nvidia's stock fell by as much as 4% during the day due to an antitrust investigation by the market regulator, dragging down the overall tech stocks. Meanwhile, Chinese concept assets showed a promising upward trend.
The market believes that with Trump's inauguration, the U.S. dollar index may reach new highs. A strategist from Societe Generale stated that Trump's reflation policies could push the S&P 500 index to 6,500 points by April next year, closing yesterday at 6,052.85 points.
Institutional bullish trend on BTC remains strong, MicroStrategy continues to increase holdings
On December 9, MicroStrategy announced another purchase of $2.1 billion worth of BTC, bringing its total holdings to over $41 billion. The company has garnered market attention for raising funds to purchase BTC through issuing stocks and fixed-income securities, with its stock being one of the top ten assets for investment returns this year. MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor plans to raise $42 billion over the next three years to accelerate the strategic shift.
At the same time, analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein stated, "We still firmly believe that $100,000 is not the final milestone for Bitcoin, and we expect Bitcoin to reach a cycle high of $200,000 by the end of 2025."
Russian lawmakers propose establishing a national BTC reserve to combat economic sanctions
According to Rhythm, Russian lawmaker Anton Tkachev proposed establishing a national Bitcoin reserve, positioning it as a tool to combat economic sanctions and ensure financial stability. In a formal appeal to the finance minister, Tkachev suggested creating a Bitcoin reserve similar to traditional foreign exchange reserves. He believes that cryptocurrencies have unique advantages in mitigating risks associated with sanctions, inflation, and currency fluctuations.
This proposal aligns with the broader initiative by the Russian central bank to incorporate digital assets into the international payment system.
Macroeconomic Data Analysis
Non-farm payrolls increase by 227,000, signs of weakness remain
In November, the U.S. adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, marking the largest increase since March 2024. Although the overall non-farm employment data was slightly above expectations, the weak data from the previous month (only 12,000) was hardly revised, indicating some signs of weakness in the labor market.
First-time unemployment claims in the U.S. exceed forecasts, the job market is gradually cooling down
According to the U.S. Department of Labor, for the week ending November 30, first-time unemployment claims increased by 9,000, bringing the total to 224,000, exceeding the expected 215,000. The slightly higher unemployment rate indicates that the U.S. job market is gradually cooling down, but there has not yet been a significant deterioration.
U.S. core inflation year-on-year rate to be released soon, market direction hinges on Federal Reserve's subsequent path interpretation
On the 13th, the U.S. core inflation year-on-year rate will be released. This data is key for the market to interpret the Federal Reserve's subsequent path. Based on the current non-farm data, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates again in December has increased, with the market currently estimating an 85% chance of a 25 basis point cut in December, and about a 30% chance of another cut in January.
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