The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to go! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui who talks about coins, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable market information to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome to all coin friends' attention and likes, and refuse any market smoke bombs.
After taking a two-day break, the market has not changed much. Bitcoin has been in a tug-of-war around the hundred thousand mark, and Ethereum is also hovering around the four thousand mark. Bitcoin's fluctuations have been maintained at around three thousand points daily, while Ethereum remains around one hundred points. It seems that the atmosphere of the bull market is gradually dissipating. Although I haven't published articles in the past two days, analysis has been ongoing. I just wanted to inform everyone, and I hope all fans can be more understanding. After all, since the bull market started, I, Lao Cui, have hardly had a complete two-day rest; it has been really exhausting. The premise of making money is that one must have a life to spend it, and I also remind everyone not to neglect family after making money. Spend more time with family when you can. Without further ado, let's dive directly into today's thematic analysis. The focus is on the future layout. I just mentioned in a previous article that there will be a deep correction in December, and many friends have come to ask me about the specific timing. Today, I will discuss this correction timing with everyone:
This wave of deep correction, according to the data, should mainly involve Ethereum. Currently, what I understand is that the quantity of ETH is the largest, followed by Bitcoin. The number of these two cryptocurrencies is quite large. What I am concerned about is not whether the crypto market can have enough capital to absorb this selling, but what the domestic attitude will be once this capital is sold. Will it trigger a sell-off by domestic users? Especially under the recent popularity, regarding the uncontrollability of high points, many well-known investment firms have given extremely high evaluations, whether it's a prediction of one hundred fifty thousand or two hundred thousand. Not to mention the accuracy, at least under the current operational model, it proves that the bubble rhetoric is greater than its actual value. Previously, Putin's remarks raised the value of digital currencies, and then CZ's comment about selling below one hundred thousand can be seen as a slap in the face. Although it sounds amusing, I have not seen CZ's predictions go wrong. I still vividly remember the last round of Bitcoin selling below ten thousand; I wonder how many people slapped themselves! Seeing such remarks indeed puts me in a good mood!
After listening to others' rhetoric, let's return to the real world. I mentioned earlier that once Bitcoin rises to 125,000, the overall market value will reach 500 billion. This is good news for the crypto market, but it also buries hidden dangers. At this stage, apart from the American market, other markets are generally sluggish. The performance of the Australian market is still "brilliant." Everyone should be cautious; some statements are not my true thoughts. Being in the midst of it, there are some inconveniences. Everyone must have their own ideas. Apart from these two markets, there is not much room for capital selection; it is either gold or the current hard currency. Many high-tech company investments are basically saturated, so the fluctuations during this period are extremely important. Currently, Nvidia, the number one in market value, who can guarantee whether there is a market value bubble? How much bubble exists is worth our deep consideration. Such investments must be made by companies with substantial size; retail investors simply do not dare to enter the market. At this stage, chasing long positions is not a wise choice unless there is certain insider information to enter. Therefore, for capital, opening up a brand new track is very important. The crypto market is not the only choice, but it is currently the most suitable market for transition in the financial market.
Why is it suitable? The size of the black and gray industries will determine the market value of the crypto market! Looking back at history, since the beginning of human society, the duality of yin and yang has always existed. The emergence of paper money provided a positive choice for circulating goods. With the gradual strengthening of the internet, the black and gray industries have weakened, leading to significant liquidity issues. There is indeed a need for a channel that can avoid monitoring, which is the most practical application value of Bitcoin. How big is the black and gray industry? To be serious, I only know that the world’s capitalists have always existed. Not to mention domestically, just talking about the U.S., the liquidity of the black and gray industry can maintain at least trillions annually. It can be said that this market is supported by the U.S., and its characteristics are basically completely aligned with what they need, whether it is cold wallet technology, untraceability, or decentralization, it provides everyone with a safe trading environment! The word "safety" has practical value, and combined with a series of so-called high technologies, these terms give the crypto market a development name. Its trading value is the actual price everyone sees now. Who is driving the growth of this cryptocurrency is not important; what matters is that there is consensus. This consensus comes from the combination of the bottom and the top. Everyone needs the emergence of this market, which can endow it with value. The current trend of the crypto market is to concentrate all black and gray industries into this market for development, and ultimately, the decision-making power of this market is still in the hands of the upper echelons. This upper echelon needs to be deeply understood; the intervention of the upper echelon makes this market controllable!
This is also why the U.S. is eager to promote the legalization and compliance of the market. A series of measures are implemented to ensure that this market operates within their control. I may have gone a bit far; you might need to understand and digest this! At the same time, whether this article can be seen by everyone is also a question! You might be a bit confused at this point. Clearly, at the beginning, I mentioned the deep correction in December; how did it lead to the discussion of actual value? The deep correction in December is related to its actual value. This wave of correction is what I mentioned, practical application. Many friends are interested in the correction and are asking who has such a big hand to sell so much at once? The result is obvious; it's just inconvenient to mention in the article. Everyone can understand it themselves. This wave of correction is certain to happen, so everyone must manage their positions well. Discussing actual value is to facilitate your understanding of where the so-called bull market cannot end. You can say it is due to Trump's promotion, but in my eyes, even without Trump, there would be others to promote the development of the entire market. Therefore, many times, I regard this growth as market behavior. The digital currency market must have actual value to grow.
After understanding its actual value, investing in this market will be much easier, including the mid-term corrections. Such corrections are also qualitative, including our selling. Such events will definitely come. Very few people can estimate actual value; this is not me boasting. At least at this stage, apart from the U.S., very few people will link Bitcoin's value with gold. Powell's remarks are merely to indicate that the value will eventually present a dualistic picture. Normal institutions hold gold, which can be displayed as wealth for everyone to see. As for the unseen places, there will naturally be invisible investment markets. The emergence of Bitcoin perfectly undertakes the historical mission. As for the future, I cannot guarantee it. The emergence of this market, with the development of technology, may lead to the emergence of markets that could replace Bitcoin, but it is certainly not an overnight effort. At this stage, only Bitcoin has the ability to gain everyone's consensus. Synchronicity is very important. In the short term, I will not let everyone sell. My view on the hundred thousand mark is basically the same as CZ's; it is not that I am promoting the value of this market. Since I transitioned to the crypto market in 2015, I have already recognized that the value of the crypto market is higher than other investment markets. Only this market is in a period of high development, and key nodes will definitely change the fate of some people. Whether you can grasp it depends on whether you can accept the value of this investment.
Everyone should be clear that all strategies of the U.S. happen for a reason. The current strategy is merely to find a way to transfer black and gray assets, thereby gathering capital to flow domestically. This phenomenon is what they want to see. Globally, utilizing the crypto market, they will definitely be the biggest beneficiaries. Speaking of this, I believe everyone is very clear about why trading is prohibited domestically. A large part of the reason is to prevent capital outflow; the capitalists are indeed detestable. After understanding the actual value, I believe everyone has a clear understanding of directional judgment. The hundred thousand mark is not the endpoint, and Bitcoin's pocket is certainly not primarily for us; the victims will definitely include us. How this move will be played out depends on the U.S.'s subsequent landing strategy. For investors, just follow the layout of the planners. The explanation of actual value is to tell everyone that the depth of the correction in December is merely a short-term fluctuation. Even if there is a correction depth of tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of points, it is still within a controllable range. Because of the overall layout, as long as the U.S. does not destroy it, the bull market cannot end. Especially next year will be another year of interest rate cuts, stimulating economic growth. The most obvious market is the development of the black and gray industries. The market that initiates the bull market must be a market that cannot be seen, and their initiation will drive the growth of the crypto market.
At the end of the article, let’s talk about the short-term trend. From the recent inflow of funds, it has always been in a high-level tug-of-war. At this stage, it is definitely beneficial for the growth of small coins. This is also what I mentioned in my previous two articles. As long as Bitcoin does not start rapid growth, in the short term, small coins will definitely dominate the growth. This growth will continue until the upper shadow line stabilizes. Only then will there be a pull from large coins. Therefore, in the past few days, small coins represented by Ethereum have shown considerable performance. Including the impressive XRP, as long as there are coins with their own channels, everyone can make short-term investments. However, the early layout of Bitcoin must be completed before the interest rate cuts. After the interest rate cuts, when Bitcoin reaches a certain height, everyone must lower their expectations. In the short term, try to clear the field and wait for the selling before buying in from a low position. Also, do not be influenced by the market. Many investment analysts do not understand the current operational logic and believe that historical highs must be sold. The rule that a big rise must be followed by a big fall does not temporarily apply to the crypto market. Just looking at the inflow of USDT can explain the problem; 5 billion inflows in 30 days make it difficult to burst the short-term bubble. Think from another perspective; a deep correction means letting go of the chips in hand to allow you to enter. If you were the dealer, how would you judge? Bitcoin's short-term exploratory decline can only be completed before institutions start work. The short-term bearish mindset must be abandoned. Now is the time for high-level competition and consolidation. Just ambush long positions before the interest rate cuts, and bottom-fish during deep corrections. The bull market will not die! The length of the article is limited; I will discuss the remaining content tomorrow!
Original creation by WeChat Official Account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, please contact directly.
Lao Cui's Message: Investing is like playing chess. A master can see five, seven, or even dozens of steps ahead, while a novice can only see two or three steps. The master considers the overall situation and strategizes for the big picture, not focusing on one piece or one area, aiming for the final victory. The novice, however, fights for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, only competing for short-term gains, resulting in frequent entrapment.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on this is at your own risk!
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