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Evening Operation Thoughts for Bitcoin and Ethereum on December 6
Yesterday, the market experienced significant volatility. After Bitcoin broke through $100,000, there was a large amount of profit-taking, leading to a substantial price correction. This kind of fluctuation is normal in the tug-of-war between bulls and bears; spikes in a bull market are not uncommon, and it is expected that the trend will continue into the first quarter of next year. After the correction, the decline in funding rates and borrowing rates has released the risk of Bitcoin, increasing the possibility of new highs. The market's sharp rises and falls are a norm of capital games and do not signify a trend reversal; each major drop is an opportunity to clear heavy long positions, and investors should remain defensive and not be thrown off by sharp declines.
Regarding tonight's non-farm payroll data, the market has already experienced significant fluctuations yesterday, but it is unlikely that the non-farm data will trigger a new crash; instead, it may lead to a rebound. If the non-farm data is negative, it may imply that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in December, increasing market risks, but this scenario is less probable. Investors should avoid viewing market fluctuations with a retail mindset and should not rush to short, to avoid being trapped.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 18-19 and the probability of a rate hike in Japan in December are the risk points to watch next. Although a rate hike may seem negative, it could be Japan's last rate hike, and the negative sentiment will soon turn into positive. The U.S. stock market and the crypto market are in a bull market cycle, and adjustments are usually digested by the market within 1-2 weeks. Around December 20, it may be an opportunity for bears to buy the dip.
After next week, short-term risks need to be monitored more closely, and profit-taking and stop-loss discipline should be strict. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, short-term fluctuations will not change the overall upward trend of the bull market. Additionally, the U.S. core PPI data for November on Thursday evening is also worth paying attention to. If there is an increase from Monday to Tuesday, there may be a spike operation on Thursday evening to create a buying opportunity. As long as the low long positions are well controlled, short-term fluctuations may actually be a good time to enter the market.
Yesterday's Review:
In the cryptocurrency market, precise market analysis and strategies are crucial for investors. In the midday article analysis on December 5, we successfully predicted the long strategy for Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price fell to our entry point during the session, and the long strategy entered precisely at the lowest point, reaching the target point at the highest during the session, yielding substantial profits. This article will analyze the current market situation and provide midday operation strategies.
1. Market Review
Yesterday, the market for Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced deep spikes, but ultimately, the prices closed higher above the key moving averages. From the daily chart, Bitcoin formed a green candlestick with long upper and lower shadows, deeply spiking to the daily MA30 moving average line, marking the first touch of the daily MA30 moving average since this bull market began. Ethereum also formed a doji candlestick with upper and lower shadows, rebounding to the 3900 level after retracing to the daily MA10 moving average.
2. Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
Bitcoin's deep spike yesterday showed the market's volatility, but the price closed higher again above the MA5/10 moving averages, indicating the resilience of the bullish forces. On the 4-hour chart, the price remains below the 5/10 moving averages but above the 30/60 moving averages, returning to the previous fluctuation range around 9.8. The intraday operation should treat it as a range fluctuation.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
The daily chart of Ethereum shows that after retracing to the MA10 moving average yesterday, the price rebounded today, returning to the 3900 level, and also standing above the daily MA5/10 moving averages. On the 4-hour chart, after retracing to the MA60 moving average yesterday, it has now closed higher above the 4-hour MA5/10 moving averages, indicating a return to a bullish trend in the short term.
3. Midday Operation Thoughts (Written at 17:00)
Bitcoin (BTC) Operation Thoughts
Long Strategy: Lightly go long near 9.682/9.62, targeting above 9.9.
Short Strategy: Lightly go short near 9.95/10.05, targeting 9.7/9.6.
Ethereum (ETH) Operation Thoughts
Long Strategy: Lightly go long near 3840/3780, targeting above 3900/4000.
Short Strategy: Follow Bitcoin, primarily focusing on going long on retracements.
4. Medium to Long-Term Trend Analysis
Although Bitcoin has experienced a significant spike, the market still shows a bullish trend. The daily chart remains above the MA5/10 moving averages, and the 4-hour chart has not lost the MA120 moving average. There is no rush to go short until a clear top is seen. Ethereum is showing relatively strong performance, and we continue to be bullish on Ethereum, waiting for a retracement opportunity to go long.
5. Market Sentiment and Risk Management
In the current market environment, investors need to remain cautious and closely monitor changes in market sentiment. Due to the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, investors should allocate funds reasonably and avoid excessive concentration in investments to reduce risks. Additionally, setting stop-loss points is an important part of risk management, helping investors exit in unfavorable market conditions to minimize losses.
6. Conclusion
In summary, the short-term market for Bitcoin and Ethereum shows a trend of fluctuating upward. Investors should combine technical analysis when operating, paying attention to key support and resistance levels. Additionally, reasonable fund management and risk control are key to successful investing. In the medium to long-term trend, both Bitcoin and Ethereum show certain support, but market sentiment and macroeconomic factors may still impact prices, so investors should remain vigilant and flexibly adjust their operating strategies.
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