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In the recent market, Bitcoin has been in a correction phase. We have mentioned multiple times that this correction is merely a consolidation in the upward trend, and it will continue to break through 100,000. Today, Bitcoin has already surpassed 100,000, reaching a high of around 104,000. The direct surge here was a bit faster than my personal expectations. From a structural perspective, the recent pullback cannot constitute a 4-hour correction, so the current rise should be classified as a continuation of the 4-hour upward trend. The same goes for Ethereum; it is also in the process of extending the 4-hour upward trend.

This raises a question: if Bitcoin is an extension of the previous 4-hour upward trend, when will the real 4-hour correction come? How much further can Bitcoin go up before a correction? If a correction occurs next, will it definitely plunge to 85,000 or lower? Could it rise all the way to 120,000?

I cannot answer these questions. The market trend is much more complex than originally expected. The only thing to consider now is that the market is in a phase of peak excitement. During Bitcoin's high-level fluctuations, altcoins have been rising and falling, with mainstream coins and older altcoins almost all experiencing gains, with low positions generally tripling. Since Ethereum started around 3100, we have been emphasizing that Ethereum's catch-up rally is coming, and it has quickly reached 4000.

Considering the current market level, the altcoin market needs a certain phase of adjustment or a washout action. Therefore, at this stage, I personally believe it is necessary to do some subtraction, reduce positions in some coins, and protect current profits. Release some funds. If a correction occurs, one can re-enter at lower levels.

Bitcoin has broken through 100,000; have you all really made money? In the real market, many retail investors' operations are quite tragic. There are those who are stuck in short positions below 80,000, feeling worse than death; those who dared not buy spot after missing the opportunity; those who sold in waves but didn't profit; those who entered late, holding a bunch of high-priced spot purchases without much profit; and those who have been shorting continuously as prices rise.

In reality, when the market evolves from consolidation to a trend, most people have not adjusted their mindset and cannot keep up with the pace of the main players. In the first half of this year, Bitcoin was in high-level consolidation, which easily led everyone into a misunderstanding: that they cannot adapt to the situation, and once they do, they are on a roller coaster. After Bitcoin's consolidation broke through 70,000, the actual upward trend began, but many people's thinking remained stuck in that phase of the first half of the year, selling at every small rise. They always thought the market would crash, so they couldn't keep up with the rhythm.

This has led to the current continuous upward movement in the market. You are afraid of heights, right? Then I will pull it up desperately. You are afraid of repeating the mistakes of the first half of the year, right? Then I will pull it up until you are convinced. When everyone gets used to the continuous upward rhythm, the market is very likely to have a wave of downward movement to wash out those who chased high prices.

This is my personal understanding of the market, so I believe it is necessary to reduce positions and secure some profits.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market conditions at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes, which should only be used as a reference.

1H:

From a structural perspective on the 1-hour level, the pullback from a few days ago was actually still part of a central consolidation process, and the short-term trend has not successfully formed a 4-hour correction. Currently, the 1-hour level rebound has directly reached a new high, which belongs to the continuation of the 4-hour upward trend. Therefore, there is still an expectation of a 4-hour correction in the future. It is important to note that after Bitcoin broke through 100,000, there is a certain probability that the market will pull back again. This is something we need to be cautious about. If it is particularly strong, then pay attention to whether it can break through 110,000 tomorrow.

15M:

On the 15-minute level, it is currently necessary to see at least one more 15-minute upward movement to go above 104,000. If it pushes up again, pay attention to the strength of the rise, with the upper target first looking at the range of 105,000 to 110,000.

ETH

The 1-hour level is the same; this is also an extension of the 4-hour upward trend. Last night, I was worried about a divergence in the movements of Ethereum and Bitcoin, but it seems I was overthinking it. Bitcoin and Ethereum currently maintain a consistent structure; they are both in the process of extending a 4-hour upward trend. Among them, Ethereum's movement is even more aggressive. Currently, starting from 2357, it is still in the first 4-hour upward movement of the daily upward trend. This 4-hour upward movement has directly surged to around 4000, so Ethereum's daily upward trend will at least need to undergo a 4-hour correction and another 4-hour upward movement.

Therefore, based on the structural progress of the market, it is expected that 5000 will definitely be broken, and 7000 to 8000 is still very likely to be reached in the first half of next year.

In the short term, pay attention to whether the 4-hour upward movement can reach around 4100 to 4200. Currently, Ethereum has gone through two central upward trends, and it is now in the second 1-hour central upward segment. As long as this upward movement does not break through 4250, it will create a divergence, thus ending the 4-hour upward trend and leading to a 4-hour correction.

On the 15-minute level, it is currently the third 15-minute upward movement. Let's see the strength of the rise.

Trend Direction

Weekly Level: The direction is upward, currently in a new weekly upward movement, with an overall target looking above 150,000.

Daily Level: The direction is upward, with the daily upward trend expected to reach around 120,000.

4-Hour Level: The direction is upward, currently belonging to the extension of the previous 4-hour upward trend. The 4-hour correction has not successfully formed, but there is a probability of ending soon.

1-Hour Level: The direction is upward, currently in a 1-hour rebound, with the upper target focusing on the range of 105,000 to 110,000.

15-Minute Level: The direction is upward, and the short-term should continue to push up, watching the strength of the rise.

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The article is time-sensitive, please pay attention to risks. The views in the article are only personal suggestions and for reference only!

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