Reference Source Bankless
Author｜Golem（@web3_golem）
“I was wrong, I didn’t expect the altcoin season to arrive at the end of November.”
At the beginning of November, while Bitcoin continued to rise and altcoins performed poorly, the market was still worried that this bull market would not include altcoin trends. Most institutions and analysts also expressed negative views (related reading: Bitcoin hits a new high, can altcoins keep up?). However, by the end of November, TradingView data showed that the total market capitalization of altcoins had nearly doubled since November, Bitcoin's market share had dropped to 51.4%, and analysts indicated that BTC's market share was about to break through a multi-year support level, significantly affecting market sentiment, indicating that the altcoin season had arrived.
Being in the altcoin season also brings worries about which tokens to buy. Bankless co-founder Ryan Sean Adams gave the advice that ETH will rise to $4,000 in the next 24 hours. Perhaps this is just his personal FOMO statement, but the dedicated analyst team at Bankless has been predicting the price trends of some altcoins, and since the start of the altcoin season in November, they have been bullish on the price trends of 10 altcoins for the next three months.
This article will summarize the specific predictions and reasons from the Bankless analyst team for the 10 bullish altcoins, and provide a summary of the win rates for their token predictions from late November to early December for readers' reference.
Win Rate Prediction for Late November to Early December: 40%
Excluding neutral tokens, there are 10 tokens predicted by the Bankless analyst team that are set to expire from late November to early December, with the following results:
Predicted bullish but declined: Euler (EUL) down 27%;
Predicted bearish but increased: Ethervista (VISTA) up 66%, UMA Protocol (UMA) up 78%; Filecoin (FIL) up 55%, 1inch (1INCH) up 80.75%, Blur (BLUR) up 99.4%;
Predicted bearish and actual decline consistent: Sanctum (CLOUD) up 99.69%, GMX (GMX) down 18.04%, Kamino (KMNO) up 206.37%, Canto (CANTO) down 55%.
Among them, the most severe reversals were seen in Instadapp (INST), 1inch (1INCH), and Blur (BLUR), with Kamino (KMNO) showing a high predicted return of 206.37%. However, the overall win rate for the tokens predicted to expire from late November to early December is only 40%.
Bullish Token Review
Aave (AAVE)
Sector: DeFi
Reason: Net deposits and active loans continue to grow, valuation indicators are favorable
Prediction period: December 2, 2024, to March 2, 2025
Price at prediction: $238.91
Price performance to date: up 2.88%
On July 31, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on AAVE's price because Marc Zeller proposed an upgrade to the security module in a “temperature check” on July 25, and the AAVE token plays a key role in the ecosystem.
In the past 30 days, the total active loans of AAVE have reached $12.51 billion, a 46% increase, and net deposits have also risen to $31.37 billion, a 49% year-on-year increase. The increased demand for leverage has driven loan expansion and higher borrowing rates. For example, the current borrowing rate for USDT on Aave is 37%, leading to a 63% surge in Aave's revenue.
However, the price of the AAVE token has only risen about 16%, which does not match the growth rate of protocol revenue, indicating that the market may not have fully reflected Aave's recent performance. Therefore, the Bankless analyst team remains bullish on AAVE.
Instadapp (INST)
Sector: DeFi
Reason: Continuous increase in trading volume, innovative protocol mechanisms
Prediction period: November 26, 2024, to February 26, 2025
Price at prediction: $5.47
Price performance to date: up 36.01%
On July 16, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on INST's price because Fluid (a hybrid of money markets and DEX) as a unified liquidity layer for Instadapp is expected to drive adoption and revenue growth. Since its launch on November 1, Fluid's total trading volume has exceeded $1 billion. It currently ranks fifth in 24-hour trading volume on Ethereum, only behind well-known projects like Uniswap, Curve, Pendle, and Balancer.
The rapid success of Fluid can be attributed to its innovative design. Users can earn from both borrowers and transaction fees. Additionally, debt positions generate transaction fees that offset borrowing costs, which is a unique feature that enhances capital efficiency.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team continues to be bullish on its future price performance, believing that the growing popularity of Fluid and its smart collateral and smart debt mechanisms are key drivers for increasing trading volume and efficiency in the DeFi space.
anoncast (ANON)
Sector: SocialFi
Reason: Public endorsement by Vitalik, potential for viral spread
Prediction period: November 21, 2024, to February 21, 2025
Price at prediction: $0.04
Price performance to date: down 37.29%
On the evening of November 20, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin purchased Base tokens for the first time through the “vitalik.eth” address, exchanging 0.082 ETH (worth $253) for 30.303k ANON via the DeFi aggregator ParaSwap link.
ANON is the utility token of “anoncast”, a social experiment based on zero-knowledge proofs. Token holders with at least 15,000 ANON can post anonymously through the protocol's associated Farcaster account, while holders with at least 1 million ANON can promote or delete these posts on X/Twitter.
Although many experienced Base participants may feel some anxiety about SocialFi tokens due to the collapse of FRIEND, this experiment differs in that it requires anyone wanting to interact with it to purchase ANON.
The Bankless analyst team is bullish on ANON's price performance because, although the token lacks fundamental value, it has received public endorsement from Vitalik. If more crypto audiences interact with this novel experiment, it could lead to viral spread.
Near (NEAR)
Sector: L1
Reason: Tapping into the AI narrative, can attract capital attention
Prediction period: November 14, 2024, to February 14, 2025
Price at prediction: $5.2
Price performance to date: up 42.88%
On November 11, NEAR Protocol co-founder Illia Polosukhin proposed a plan to create the world's largest open-source model, which will have 14 trillion parameters, making it 3.5 times larger than Meta's open-source alternative, Llama. According to Polosukhin's report through Cointelegraph link, the training and computing costs (estimated at about $160 million) will be funded by selling NEAR tokens, and the model will run on a decentralized computing network.
While increased latency is a common drawback of decentralized computing networks, Polosukhin claims that emerging research from Google's AI subsidiary DeepMind indicates that fast interconnectivity is also possible.
The Bankless analyst team is bullish on NEAR's future price performance because the combination of a decentralized computing network centered around NEAR and Polosukhin's AI background will be a significant advantage for attracting users, developers, and capital to the network. However, if the market suddenly finds that the value of such activities is limited, selling NEAR to fund model development could depress prices without justification.
Solana (SOL)
Sector: L1
Reason: Trump's election is favorable, FOMO sentiment in the bull market continues
Prediction period: November 13, 2024, to February 13, 2025
Price at prediction: $217.2
Price performance to date: up 9.12%
In September, the Bankless analyst team was not optimistic about SOL's price performance, believing that as holders exited the ecosystem to invest in other alternative opportunities, a decline might occur. Although SOL did not perform well compared to popular L1s like APT and SUI, its price in USD steadily increased throughout October and exploded in early November due to favorable results from the U.S. elections.
The Bankless analyst team has now turned bullish on SOL, as under Trump's administration, it can still enjoy favorable catalysts—such as the approval of spot ETFs—and due to the bull market, the general assumption about it can continue in the foreseeable future.
Helium Network (HNT)
Sector: Infrastructure
Reason: Continuous user growth and strategic partnerships with telecom companies
Prediction period: November 12, 2024, to February 12, 2025
Price at prediction: $5.95
Price performance to date: up 43.87%
At the end of July, the Bankless analyst team was not optimistic about HNT's price performance, as the token had fallen 90% from its historical high in 2021 and 55% from the cycle peak on February 15. Additionally, platform revenue had declined, and user growth significantly slowed after peaking in early March.
However, since then, the data consumption rate of Helium Network has more than doubled, indicating that network usage has also doubled since July. This growth is primarily driven by Helium Mobile users, whose numbers increased from 105,336 at the last prediction to 119,934.
Although the total number of Helium Mobile users may not be high, Helium's strategic partnerships with telecom companies help improve network usage. For example, Telefonica saw an 18.1% increase in the number of devices connected to IoT networks from 2021 to 2022, followed by a 12.2% increase from 2022 to 2023.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team remains bullish on HNT's price performance, expecting that the continued growth of Helium Mobile users and strategic partnerships with telecom companies will drive the usage of the Helium network, positively impacting the entire Helium ecosystem.
Pendle Finance (PENDLE)
Sector: DeFi
Reason: Protocol mechanisms still have advantages in a bull market
Prediction period: November 8, 2024, to February 8, 2025
Price at prediction: $5.19
Price performance to date: up 29.09%
On September 20, the Bankless analyst team predicted a bearish outlook for PENDLE's price due to $360 million in earnings maturing later that month. Although Pendle continued to offer market-leading yield opportunities at that time, its token price and total locked value had significantly declined since late June 2024, when a large amount of $3 billion in maturing debt appeared in pools created around the peak of the airdrop frenzy in early 2024.
Despite experiencing significant TVL outflows in September, Pendle's token price was not greatly affected, and TVL has been positively growing since October. Therefore, the Bankless analyst team has turned bullish on PENDLE's future performance, believing that its yield swap remains the leading mechanism in the market, positioning it favorably for growth if the cryptocurrency bull market accelerates.
Lido (LDO)
Sector: LST
Reason: Trump's election sparks optimism for Ethereum-related tokens
Prediction period: November 7, 2024, to February 7, 2025
Price at prediction: $1.34
Price performance to date: up 56.72%
The conclusion of the U.S. elections has led investors to view Trump's victory in the presidential election as a positive for the crypto market. Although Trump did not provide specific policy details during his campaign that he believes could benefit cryptocurrencies, he did promise to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who claimed that Lido's stETH is an unregistered security. Additionally, before the election, Trump had already raised $15 million in investment for World Liberty Financial (WLFI), which is expected to become a front-end for Aave deposits.
Although the crypto industry's hopes for a Trump administration are largely based on speculation, he has the potential to fulfill vague promises and instruct executive agencies not to enforce regulations against crypto projects during the next four years, with the Republican Party's significant victories in Congress providing the possibility of incorporating such reforms into law.
While the Bankless analyst team remains concerned about the continued decline in stETH's market share and Lido's profitability, the bullish outlook for LDO is based on the expectation that Trump's election will spark investor optimism for an unknown but seemingly better future.
Uniswap (UNI)
Sector: DeFi
Reason: Trump's election sparks market optimism
Prediction period: November 6, 2024, to February 6, 2025
Price at prediction: $9.29
Price performance to date: up 65.12%
In October, Bankless was bearish on the UNI token due to Uniswap's launch of Unichain. Although UNI fell more than 20% in the following month, it began to surge on November 6, marking the largest increase of 2024 (second only to the rise on February 23, which was triggered by the UNI fee conversion proposal, proposal later blocked by the Uniswap Foundation), with the November surge attributed to Trump's advantage in the election.
The Bankless analyst team has turned bullish on UNI's price performance, expecting that cryptocurrency participants will be more optimistic about the recent regulatory outlook for the industry, especially when it applies to tokens that may distribute cash flow to holders in a manner similar to dividends.
Jito (JTO)
Sector: LST
Reason: Leading LST protocol on Solana, benefiting from the development of meme coins
Prediction period: November 1, 2024, to February 1, 2025
Price at prediction: $2.29
Price performance to date: up 60.26%
In July, the Bankless analyst team was bullish on JTO's price performance, expecting that the deployment of Jito's native staking would solidify its position as the leading liquid staking protocol on Solana. Although JTO's price fell 17% during the first three months of the prediction period, Jito's TVL has steadily reached historical highs in both USD and SOL terms in 2024.
The surge in the number of meme coins on Solana has also increased MEV opportunities; due to the high slippage generated by these low-liquidity meme pools, Jito's daily SOL fees have reached historical highs.
Therefore, the Bankless analyst team is bullish on JTO's future performance, believing that the protocol is solidifying its position as the top liquid staking protocol on Solana and that the popularity of meme coins (and the tips generated by MEV arbitrageurs) will benefit Jito.
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