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December 4th** Bitcoin and Ethereum Afternoon Trading Strategy**
Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin in the South Korean market experienced severe fluctuations, plummeting by as much as $60,000 at one point. This phenomenon may have been triggered by market panic due to the uncertainty in South Korea's political situation, technical issues on the Upbit trading platform, and possible chain liquidations. This event sparked discussions about whether Bitcoin is a safe-haven asset or a risk asset. Although Bitcoin's price volatility resembles that of risk assets, its global circulation capability also endows it with safe-haven attributes. However, the behavior of South Korean investors selling Bitcoin during political turmoil is puzzling, possibly related to their demand for converting Korean won to US dollars. Nevertheless, Bitcoin's acceptance in international events such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrates its safe-haven capability. Although the flash crash in the South Korean market triggered panic, it quickly rebounded, showing the market's resilience. The relatively minor global market reaction can be attributed to the difficulty of arbitraging Korean won trading pairs, the transient nature of the flash crash, and the relatively small trading volume in the South Korean market. This event once again proves that opportunities and risks always coexist in the cryptocurrency market.
I. Market Review
On December 3rd, Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced some fluctuations. The long position strategy given at 9.45 during the afternoon analysis, as well as the long position strategy for Ethereum at 3540/3580, were validated by the market. The short position strategy given at 9.54 in the evening successfully dropped to the target point, yielding a profit of 1500 points. Subsequently, the long positions from the afternoon analysis at 9.45/3540 also successfully rebounded to 9.66/3700, with both long and short positions profiting over 3000 points. For investors following the strategy, there were undoubtedly gains. However, the current short-term market shows an upward rebound trend, and investors need to operate more cautiously.
II. Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
From the daily chart, Bitcoin formed a doji candlestick with a lower shadow yesterday, closing above the MA10 moving average, indicating that the price has not completely lost the MA5/10 moving averages. On the 4-hour chart, after a pullback to the MA120 moving average yesterday, the price returned to the MA30 moving average, which is a resistance level at 9.65. Investors need to pay attention to whether today's price can stabilize above 9.65. On the hourly level, we need to observe whether the breakthrough and retest of the MA256 moving average at 9.6 holds. If the short-term trend is to return to bullish, it needs to stabilize within the price range of 9.6-9.65; otherwise, it will continue to maintain a fluctuating adjustment.
Ethereum Technical Analysis
The daily chart for Ethereum shows that it pierced the MA10 moving average yesterday but did not break it. Today, the price slightly rebounded, reclaiming the daily MA5/10 moving averages. On the 4-hour level, several consecutive red candlesticks have formed, allowing it to stand back above the MA30 moving average, with the resistance level referencing the previous high point of 3730.
III. Afternoon Trading Strategy (Written at: 15:45)
Bitcoin (BTC) Trading Strategy
Long Position Strategy: Lightly go long near 9.58/9.53, targeting above 9.7.
Short Position Strategy: Lightly go short at 9.8/9.75, targeting near 9.6.
Ethereum (ETH) Trading Strategy
Long Position Strategy: Lightly go long near 3620/3580, targeting 3700/3750.
Short Position Strategy: Follow Bitcoin for short-term trades.
IV. Medium to Long-Term Trend Analysis
Bitcoin Medium to Long-Term Trend: As long as Bitcoin does not lose the short-term support at 9.45, it is still treated as bullish. Although there are short-term divergences between long and short positions, as long as the key support is not lost, it is still treated as a fluctuating bullish trend.
Ethereum Medium to Long-Term Trend: Ethereum has maintained the support level below 3550 mentioned yesterday, and the short-term trend is strengthening again. However, the momentum for the rebound is slightly slower, and the short-term is still treated as bullish in segments.
V. Market Sentiment and Risk Management
In the current market environment, investors need to remain cautious and closely monitor changes in market sentiment. Due to the high volatility of the cryptocurrency market, investors should allocate funds reasonably and avoid excessive concentration of investments to reduce risk. Additionally, setting stop-loss points is an important part of risk management, helping investors exit in unfavorable market conditions to minimize losses.
VI. Conclusion
In summary, the short-term market for Bitcoin and Ethereum shows an upward rebound trend. Investors should combine technical analysis when trading, paying attention to the gains and losses of key support and resistance levels. At the same time, reasonable fund management and risk control are key to successful investing. In the medium to long-term trend, both Bitcoin and Ethereum show certain support, but market sentiment and macroeconomic factors may still impact prices, so investors should remain vigilant and flexibly adjust their trading strategies.
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