Morning Analysis - A sudden event in the middle of the night triggered a major sell-off. Where will the market trend go from here?

CN
1 day ago

Tracking real-time hotspots in the cryptocurrency world and seizing the best trading opportunities, today is Wednesday, December 4, 2024, I am Wang Yibo! Good morning to all crypto friends ☀️ Die-hard fans check in 👍 Like to make big money 🍗🍗🌹🌹

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A heavy news late at night made a big splash in the South Korean cryptocurrency market—South Korean President issues an emergency martial law order. As soon as this news broke, the crypto market instantly fell into a panic situation with collective sell-offs. Last night, influenced by the sudden news, the market experienced a rollercoaster trend, and at this moment, there is an overall rebound. Bitcoin dropped to a low of $93,625 and is currently reported at $96,100, while Ethereum is currently reported at $3,628. Overnight, U.S. stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.17%, the Nasdaq up 0.40%, and the S&P 500 index up 0.05%, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 continuing to set new closing highs. Gold stocks rose broadly, and JPMorgan expects gold prices to rise to $3,000 per ounce next year. Additionally, the employment report for November will be released on Friday, and investors should pay attention to the growth rate over the past two months, especially considering the significant revision risk in the October data. This could potentially impact the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and sentiment!

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Short-term trends have slightly declined but have already entered a rebound recovery trend. Do not easily think that short-term pullbacks during the trend consolidation phase indicate a trend reversal. The overall direction remains bullish; it is just a difference in the consolidation period. As long as there is no economic recession or black swan events, the fourth quarter of 2024 should be the most stable. From Christmas to January 20, there may be some fluctuations, and after the inauguration on January 20, there is a high possibility of another wave of positive news. Moreover, from a historical cycle perspective, significant declines typically begin to stabilize about half a year after a halving event. However, this does not mean that a bull market will guarantee profits; why? Everyone's approach and understanding are different, and more institutional players will continue to enter the market, which may pose more challenges for small retail investors. Overall, the risks before the second quarter of 2025 are relatively low, and the focus should still be on U.S. monetary policy, whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, the trend of unemployment rates, and whether inflation will fluctuate.

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Bitcoin rebounded after a dip yesterday, completing a large V reversal. Currently, it has stabilized and is expected to continue the bullish trend in the short term. The current market situation is such that wash trading is the norm, but as long as the direction is clear, it is very evident. Continuing the downward trend from the evening, after touching a low of $93,620, bulls formed a rebound, recovering to above $96,000 by early morning. After the price dipped last night, bulls quickly provided recovery space, and now, after warming up, it is again in a consolidation pattern. All recent rebounds have been accompanied by corrections or spikes. Corrections are a process of accumulating energy, and after effectively building a new support platform, a new upward movement can be initiated. All current consolidation actions are moving horizontally within a predetermined range, using time to exchange for space to accumulate energy for upward movement. It is recommended to maintain a strategy of buying on dips in the short term!

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Ethereum also performed actively during the day, rebounding from a low of $3,557 to a high of $3,673 in the evening, then faced pressure and retraced, influenced by news, reaching a low of $3,504 before starting to rebound. The local breakout signals and the accompanying selling pressure are more significant compared to yesterday. This indicates that the market may face some downward pressure in the short term. Subsequently, bulls regained lost ground, and it has returned to the previous consolidation range. On the four-hour chart, a long lower shadow hammer candlestick has formed, signaling the start of a bullish counterattack. The hourly trend is also continuously contracting, and currently, the bearish momentum is weak, so the market is still primarily focused on buying on dips.

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In this market, ultimately, it comes down to ability. If your ability is insufficient, the market will eventually make you pay back one day. Therefore, when your wealth exceeds your ability, you need to control your pullbacks. Although this control may be in vain, that kind of arrogance and hubris from profits will ultimately destroy a person's rationality. However, we do not need to worry about the situation where our wealth is lower than our ability in the capital market because this kind of imbalance will eventually be corrected by time. If it has not been corrected, there is only one reason: your ability is insufficient. If you are still in a state of confusion, not understanding technology, unable to read the market, not knowing when to enter, unable to set stop losses, not knowing when to take profits, randomly increasing positions, getting stuck while trying to catch the bottom, unable to hold onto profits during volatility, and missing opportunities when the market comes, these are common problems among retail investors. But it’s okay; come to me, and I will guide you on the correct trading mindset. A single profitable trade is worth more than a thousand words. Instead of repeatedly losing battles, come find Yibo! Frequent operations are not as good as precise trades; let each trade be valuable. What you need to do is find Yibo, and what we need to do is prove that our words are not empty. 24-hour real-time guidance, as market fluctuations are relatively fast, due to the effectiveness of review, the subsequent market trends will primarily rely on real-time arrangements. Friends who need contract guidance can scan the QR code below the article to add my public account.

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